Checking on the River

[Mikey]

A big leak I have in NL is checking on the river and not leaving myself an escape outlet when I induce a bluff.
(Note: I'm first to act on the river)

When I induce a bluff on the river in NL and then call a pot size bet that can't possibly be correct strategy because
1) most players won't try to buy it
2) they'll figure you will almost surely call
3) the pot odds you are getting are bad.

Here is a hand I played today in NL 1-2 on the internet.

I have KK in the SB and after about 3 limpers I raise it to $10 total, the BB calls and the cutoff call.
My stack is at about $350.
BB is at $204
Cutoff is at $80

I don't have any info on the players since i'm multitabling and its hard to keep track of.

Now the pot is $34

The flop comes down

8h 6d 5h with 2 hearts.

I fire a pot sized bet and only the BB calls.

68+34 $102 in the pot.

I'm really not liking my spot here, because usually when I fire a pot sized bet and I get called, I'm usually beat here, and this is the reason I fire pot sized bets, most of the time when I'm called and the pot is reasonable sized like this one, i don't like my chances too much not because of pessimism but because experience dictates i'm usually beat.

On the turn falls a 6s.

I bet $40 and he calls.

I'm really not liking my spot but I had to be on the turn right? I can't possibly check this and give a free card to a heart or a straight draw. Plus I believe the 6 strenghtened my hand and not hurt it, hence the $40 bet.

$180 in the pot.

The river falls a Td.

I check to induce a bluff.

THe reasons

1) If he had a straight already he would have raised me, with the 79.
2) the T up there puts up the straight for the 79 but the 79 had the straight all along.
3) The T of diamonds does not complete a flush so if he was on the flush he would probably bet here as a bluff in desperation to pick up the pot.

I don't know much about my opponnent but I know this.....
most players will not bet a hand on the end if they believe it has showdown value, but they will call with worse hands than mine.

I induced a bluff and he bets $50.

Now I'm getting about 4 1/2 to 1 for my money to make the call. So my hand has to be the winner about 18% to make this profitable. I think its just about right to make this call.

What do I do here?

Is my thinking in this situation correct in all respects?

Is there anything in here that is flawed?


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On a further note about inducing bluffs.

I sometimes check on the river to induce a bluff but then i'm faced with a pot sized bet and sometimes make a call, I don't think this can be right since I'm getting about 2 to 1, and the odds that he's bluffing are a lot lower than that.(again i'm talking about a typical online player)

What is a good bet size in regard to pot size that will leave you with an escape hatch if you are raised especially when you are first to act on the river?

Thanks in advance.