Hand Analysis Help

[reo]

1000 + 0 Buy-in NLH
Blinds: 800/1600
79 LEFT / 536

Chip Counts:
ME = 50K
SB = 75K
MP = 75K

AVG = 40K

I'm on the button with JJ. Folded to MP player who bets 5K. Folded to me. I call. SB calls. BB folds.

Flop is 457 rainbow.

SB checks. MP bets 5K. I raise to 11K. SB folds. MP reraises to 20K.

What would you do?

[schwah]

reads? unless you just got moved to the table you should have some idea of the players in the hand. also you didnt mention what the blinds were. im guessing 750/1500 or 1000/2000?

i would almost always be reraising preflop.

[reo]

MP was a new player to the table. SB is loose.

[reo]

Blinds posted.

[CardSharpCook]

Well, yeah, I think you know that you are losing this one. I'm ok with the PF decision, though a reraise is cool too. Also, you played the flop nicely until you went AI when you knew you were way behind. However, I suppose it is possible that this is a bluff or that he is betting 88-TT here.

In the future, don't post the results/villian's hand. You'll get better responses by leaving us in the dark.

[mikeymer]

I bump this up preflop to try to gauge what MP could be on for information... and to take control of the hand so if an overcard hits I can act accordingly. Postflop I think that is a very hard hand to get away from. I would have tried to keep the pot smaller once you opted not to reraise preflop.

I think this is a case where you need to reraise preflop. Calling is the worst choice as it leaves you with no information about the hands you're up against, plus SB now thinks he has odds to call and is along for the ride to break both of you. With 40k in chips you could make a nice reraise to about 12k and see where villain stands and how well he likes his hand. What could villain possibly put you on reraising preflop except for a high pair or AK? I don't know about most players, but facing a preflop raise that will pot commit me with a low pocket pair (that's easily counterfeited by the board) I'm not looking to take my chances, especially in a situation where I could easily be a 4:1 underdog. If he calls or reraises you again and you decide you're behind, this will leave you with a decent stack to play with. A reraise that's called preflop might also signal you postflop that you are behind, thus saving you the remainder of your stack. It's definitely hard to put villain on a low pair that hit a set here, especially since you didn't push him for more information preflop. I think you're going broke on this hand postflop regardless as villain hit his 1/8 shot of making a set on the flop and you're in love with your overpair.

I think that you might have gotten MP to lay down with a reraise preflop here. That was probably the only way you were going to walk away from this one with chips, if at all.

[mts]

Few questions. How easy is it has it been to pick up pots? Is every pot contested?


I like reraising here pf, maybe to 15k.
You have 3 over pairs and 3 underpairs that could be likely plus other crap so i (scream thug life!!! (in my head of course)) and push.

Really need info about their styles, habits of the table... like in steal situations. Similar situation occured yesterday for me and he called with KK.

I usually like to call a raise pf with JJ. If the pot is unopened, I make it 3-4 bb, unless I'm in LP and have been stealing a lot from LP. then I just do whatever I've been doing to steal, and I'm happy to have someone come back over the top of me. Knowing that they're probably on a re-steal, I very well may push, especially if they've successfully done a re-steal before. I like to call pf with JJ rather than re-raise, but there are good arguments for re-raising.

Anyway, after the flop comes out, the pot is 16.6k. The original raiser bets 5k into the pot, making it 21.6k. You reraise to 11k, making it 6k more to him into a 32.6k pot. You're giving him 5.5:1 pot odds. Most people are not folding to that, almost regardless of their cards. An overpair, an underpair, top pair, AK, they're probably not folding anything. In fact, some more aggressive players would push over top of you here. You're re-raise is very weak.

You really only have two options.
Call: This is pretty weak. He made a very weak raise. Calling doesn't give you any idea where you stand, and it gives someone with A7, 88, etc. a chance to suck out on you for a very cheap price. 88 has 6 outs. You want it to call you, but you want it to pay for it. I'd have to put him very firmly on a set or a straight from someone trying to steal the blinds from MP to just call. Of course, if you can put him that firmly a set/straight, just fold, but this is a new player and your read isn't good enough to do that. Basically, the option of calling is almost a non-option.

Re-raise: Your re-raise should be 20k. This means there's a 41.6k pot, and he's got to put in 15k to call. It's still almost 3:1, but if he calls he has to at least some sort of hand (assuming he's not a 100% donk): top pair, overpair, pair+straight draw, etc. Of course, if he were to happen to have TP and an outside straight draw, he's getting pot odds to call. However, this is an unlikely holding, and raising any more pot commits you. Plus, pushing probably folds nothing that beats you (sets and QQ-AA aren't folding here) and may very well fold a lot of things that you are ahead of and you want to have call you (AK, A7, 88-TT, 66).

If he pushes over the top of you, you have a decision to make. It's 25k more to you for a 66.6k pot. You do have an overpair. You beat half of the overpairs and lose to the other half. However, you're only about 5% to beat/tie a set/overpair to your Js. If you assume that he'll always push 88-AA and a set (not a perfect assumption, but at least livable, he'll actually push QQ-AA and sets more often), you're beat 2/3 of the time (44,55,77,QQ+)and you win 1/3 (88-TT). However, since you're getting pot odds of about 2.5:1, the math says call. I would say your chances are probably more like beat 3/4, win 1/4, since he's more likely to push with sets and big pairs, but if you factor in the bluff potential (according to Harrington, always at least 10% for any player, even a rock but higher in my experience with online players) it probably goes back to about 2/3:1/3. That being said, I probably can't lay down JJ here. A better player than me might be able to, but I don't think I can fold here.

If he calls, turn/river play is harder. I push the turn. Arguments can be made for checking/calling too, but I'm probably trying to get all of my chips in the pot, not letting a smaller pair draw out free. However, I think this is probably a hole in my game, and I'd love to hear what some others think of my hand analysis and what they would do on the turn/river.

Will