KK 3 bets the turn!

Mathieu · #1 10-01-2005, 12:56 AM

Villain is a little LOOSE and aggressive preflop and on the flop. (22/7.4, with AF at ~1). I did not have these stats in front of me during the hand. I would have thought of him being aggressive since I had seen him overplay a hand.

1$/2$ (8 handed)

I open raise with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] in utg+2, it's folded to CO who cold calls. Everyone else folds.

Flop: [J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]] 5.5 SB
Hero bets, CO calls.

Turn: [J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]] 3.25 BB
Hero bets, CO raises, Hero 3 bets

What do you think?

Mathieu · #2 10-01-2005, 01:56 AM

Alright no one replies... was this too obvious?

This is a hand that I felt good about because I did not just play it in auto-pilot saying "Oh he raised me on the turn, he must have a good hand.". In my mind his raise meant he was overplaying a weaker made hand or he was semi-bluffing some flush draw or gutshot that he picked up on the turn.

I thought JJ would have 3 bet preflop. JTs might have cold called (2 combos) preflop but would have raised the flop. TT would have re-raised preflop, or at least raised the flop. Only 77 beat me, and AhQh, AJ, KQ are all behind.

MrWookie47 · #3 10-01-2005, 02:03 AM

A villain with stats of 22/7.4/1 I'd describe as rocky, not laggy. I don't like the 3bet here. JT is a very likely hand, and you may be in worse shape than that. I'd much prefer to call here, and either call down or fold a non-2, non-7, non-K river.

TomBrooks · #4 10-01-2005, 02:11 AM

I think CO had JT, but he cold have TP Js and two hearts so be playing TP and the flush draw hard so I'll call down with overpair. There are seven outs to make a set or non heart better two pair with 2 or 7.

He could already have a set, but without a pretty good read I think you want to call this down.

SoftcoreRevolt · #5 10-01-2005, 02:18 AM

I'm just calling this turn, he may be overplaying a flush draw or one pair, but not more than 50% of the time.

Mathieu · #6 10-01-2005, 02:23 AM

Stats are sometimes misleading. He was aggressive on the flop and preflop. He would have raised that flop with JTs. His aggression factor is probably low because he ended up calling too often with weak draws or A high. (sample size is 189 hands). All I know, is that this guy would most likely smooth call this flop with a weak draw or a monster. Among the possible monsters only 77 could match his actions. In my mind there are too many hands that this guy can have that I beat.

Ex:

KQ (8x), AhQh, AJ (12), the only hand I am worried about is 77 (3x). So, to be the safe side lets assume he plays KQ this way half the time and AJ this way 1/3 of the time.

We still get (4 KQ + 2 AJ + 1 AhQh) / (3 x 77) which is over 2-1, which is what we need to warrant this raise (since we risk a cap).

* I thought he could wait for the turn to raise AJ since it is much stronger than JT vs a preflop raiser.

Mathieu · #7 10-01-2005, 02:35 AM

Wow, I rarely 3 bet the turn with just an overpair HU, but I thought this one was pretty clear.

Anyways he *immediately* called my 3 bet. Now what is the best card for me to hit the river?

I am not fearing JT, and I think 77 might have capped or at least given it some thought.

TomBrooks · #8 10-01-2005, 04:23 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Anyways he *immediately* called my 3 bet. Now what is the best card for me to hit the river?

[/ QUOTE ]
Bet if the K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] comes. Check/call anything else.

Mathieu · #9 10-01-2005, 03:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Anyways he *immediately* called my 3 bet. Now what is the best card for me to hit the river?

[/ QUOTE ]
Bet if the K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] comes. Check/call anything else.

[/ QUOTE ]

The best card is Q that does not complete a flush draw! It allows me to get paid off by some KQ or AQ combination that he might have been semi-bluffing with. When someone calls your reraise immediately, it usually means that there are drawing. If he has a made hand, his decision is not so trivial.

bozlax · #10 10-01-2005, 05:41 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The best card is Q that does not complete a flush draw! It allows me to get paid off by some KQ or AQ combination that he might have been semi-bluffing with. When someone calls your reraise immediately, it usually means that there are drawing. If he has a made hand, his decision is not so trivial.

[/ QUOTE ]

Burn, Tom! Duh, don't you know anything?

I can't believe that you and Wookie both responded to this post, and both of you were wrong! I guess if you live long enough, you'll see everything.