|
|
#1
09-30-2005, 05:08 PM
|
|||
|
|||
TPTK versus the four-flush river - AQo
Party 5/10 6-max (5-handed)
Hero is UTG with A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] The river board is 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. You have been betting the entire way and BB is calling you down. Villain is 51/1.6 over 600 hands but he doesn't defend the BB nearly as often as you might expect. He is loose and extremely passive on the flop, somewhat aggressive on the turn, and pretty aggressive on the river including quite a few raises and some checkraises. River (5 BB): Villain checks, Hero ???. 
|
|
#4
09-30-2005, 05:19 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: TPTK versus the four-flush river - AQo
[ QUOTE ]
i would think this would be an easy check behind. i can't imagine any flush nor any better hand folding. [/ QUOTE ] That's the wrong idea. He's wondering whether to bet for value or not. I vote no, cuz I'm almost definitely folding to a check-raise, and I don't know if a worse hand calls more often than a better one does.
|
|
#5
09-30-2005, 05:23 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: TPTK versus the four-flush river - AQo
The question is if there is any value in betting. I would check behind but I believe that against some LP:s this is an valuebet as my experience is that they would have bet out the river had they had the flush. He probably has a small pair of some sorts and that means that you are good here rougly 75% of the time...
|
|
#6
09-30-2005, 05:23 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: TPTK versus the four-flush river - AQo
i definitely check this. even if villain doesnt have a spade theres a good chance he has twopair with this board. there is really no value in a bet because at this point many players fold pairs. seriously, i estimate the value of this bet to be about -.7BB.
|
|
#8
09-30-2005, 05:41 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: TPTK versus the four-flush river - AQo
Check. You aren't getting called by a worse hand too often.
|
|
#9
09-30-2005, 05:45 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: TPTK versus the four-flush river - AQo
[ QUOTE ]
theres a good chance he has twopair with this board. [/ QUOTE ] Villain is BB, so the connectors on the board don't make it much more likely that he has twopair.
|
|
#10
09-30-2005, 06:01 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: TPTK versus the four-flush river - AQo
I think (despite other posters so far) that you do get called by worse hands. He'd call you with any pair very often imo. It is very difficult to quatify how often you will be ahead on this board to make a bet +EV though. But you almost never make a better hand fold here (and I almost don't want to say "almost")
In favor of betting: -Most time he has a lone pair, he'll call you (imo) - Every time (or nearly) he has any low spade, he'll call you. Against betting: - Every time (or nearly) he has any low spade, he'll call you. - Sometimes he'll have a two pair or better, and will call. - He can c/r this river and we don't have enough reads to know weather he'll do it only with the best hand or not. I think I check behind here. I would love to hear you own reasoning on this, as everything becomes so clear after readying most of your analyses.
|
 |
|
|
Linear Mode
