Maximizing the Set

[mojolang]

Okay so say you are in LP and a tight aggressive player in EP raises to 6 BBs. We'll say the money is deep, like 200-300 BBs. Now, this player is somewhat predictable about what he'll raise with up front, but is tricky and aggressive player after the flop. You put him on a big pair, JJ-AA, maybe AK. You look down and see

7 [img]/forums/images/icons/club.gif[/img] 7 [img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img]

In this game you are a loose aggressive player and most feared but also get action because of your play.

Flop:

7 [img]/forums/images/icons/spade.gif[/img] 8 [img]/forums/images/icons/heart.gif[/img] 2 [img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img]

BB bets just under the pot. Now, knowing this is a knowledgeable player, is overbetting the pot the right move or will he sniff a set? Basically, is the "overbet the pot small set move" liable to set both opponents in or is it a ploy that is commonly used and usually seen through? What is the best way to maximize the set?

Joe

[tewall]

Overbetting the pot is likely to be seen either as a bluff or a strong hand. At this point he hasn't committed much, so he'd probably fold to a large bet.

I can think of two ways I'd play this (that's why I'm listing 3). One is to make a normal raise back, normal being what would be normal for you, a raise you would make as a bluff.

Another play would be to go all in. If the stacks are 200 BB the pot may be over 10% of this at this point, which isn't too bad. You could go all in any time with this type of flop with a four flush, four straight, or legitamate hand (two pair or better) and it would be very difficult for your opponent to call. If every time he has JJ through AA or AK he raises 6BB's, and bets into a low flopped pot you should be able to pick up quite a few of these pots. If he's playing this predictably before the flop his post flop trickiness is going to be limited, so you should be able to call 6BB's with a wide range of hands. Another reason for going all in is you don't want to see a J through A on the turn which has pretty good chance of happening. Your tricky opponent, knowing you know he has a good chance of having AA-JJ might be able to put you into an uncomfortable situation.

If you are going to overbet the pot, it needs to be a play you would also make as a bluff. With bluffs you want to expend as little as possible so the odds are good enough to make the bluff worth making. Overbetting the pot makes it difficult to do that, which would be more likely to mark your hand as a strong hand.

Another way of playing which might be interesting would be to call. That might be the best way if your opponent is very aggressive and likely to make a move with just a pair (presumably when a high card comes). You'll lose a lot sometimes playing this way (I guess around 10% of the time), but if he's aggressive enough letting him bet into you may make that risk well worth it. If a high card doesn't flop on the turn, your opponent would be set up for a bluff. If he knows you know he has JJ-AA or AK and there are four low cards on the flop, and you call his flop bet, it will be very difficult for him on the turn. So your plan of action could be to call the 6BB pre-flop bet with low cards and call his flop bet and make a move on the turn with any low cards if the board is still all low, fold if a high card comes on the turn without 2 pair or better if your opponent makes a move on you, and call him down if you do (have 2 pair or better).

[Al_Capone_Junior]

You were a little unclear about the situation. First you said an EP raises, then you said the BB bets out.

Let's assume the EP player who raised is the one who bets out.

If he bets slightly less than the pot, I'd raise him slightly more than the minimum raise. You're hoping he has an overpair and will reraise you, so you can pop it back all-in and break him. This situation is exactly what you live for with small pairs. But if you just call, then wait till the turn to bet, you're announcing with big bright lights "I HAVE A SET." He won't believe you have a set if you raise the flop.

Just my opinion, I could be wrong.

al

[slowik444]

Have you played a hand against him prior? Are there three people in the pot? Who's the BB, would he bet out into a raise with a 9,10s. If EP is a tricky player, are you going to expect a raise infront of you (if this is three handed and the BB bet out). If you call a raise cold from position, the odds are probable that you will not get a bet infront of you on the turn. Will you check the turn and give the 9 10 his free straight draw. Who are you letting in? What kind of style and stack are they playing? If your move is all in will a straight draw call you?

If you are three handed pop the flop, if heads up against an over pair or AK call if you think he has AK raise proportional to the pot if over pair without looking at him, and check the turn. [img]/forums/images/icons/grin.gif[/img]

[sam h]

I'm not sure whether the BB is in this hand or not. I'll assume you're heads up and the EP player with the probable big pair is betting into you.

I find that its often best to make a small raise here on the flop, especially if your image is of an aggressive player who will do this with draws or with just one pair. What you want is to induce a reraise from your opponent.

Waiting until the turn to raise is dangerous for two reasons: 1) Many astute opponents will understand they are drawing to between 2 and 8 outs and will be able to fold their overpair and 2) There are many scare cards that could come on the turn - like an 8,7,6 or A if the opponent has KK or QQ - that will slow the action and make it difficult to get paid off.

If there are other players in the hand, you generally want to play sets fast because they may be drawing, especially if your position relative to the raiser/big pair is poor. You want to be on the raiser's right and have the other players in between.