Whatcha think of this?

adamstewart · #1 09-29-2005, 05:45 PM

Button is 42/14/1.18

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
1 fold, MP calls, Button calls, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (4 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, MP folds, Button calls, SB folds.

Turn: (3 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, Button calls.

River: (5 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, ....

baronzeus · #2 09-29-2005, 05:47 PM

i like it

scotty34 · #3 09-29-2005, 05:50 PM

This would depend on how I've noticed Button actually playing as opposed to his stat numbers. If he has aggressive tendencies, I'm sure he would have popped you on the turn with a T, and probably a K as well. Against a more passive player, I won't make this bet on the river.

mute · #4 09-29-2005, 06:04 PM

Once you bet the flop, I don't see how else you can play it. Semibluff on the turn HU is a must, and I think you fold a draw often enough to make the river bluff profitable.

Only other way to play it is c/c flop and turn and c/f river UI, but I think, I like your line better on this board.

scotty34 · #5 09-29-2005, 06:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Once you bet the flop, I don't see how else you can play it. Semibluff on the turn HU is a must, and I think you fold a draw often enough to make the river bluff profitable.

Only other way to play it is c/c flop and turn and c/f river UI, but I think, I like your line better on this board.

[/ QUOTE ]

What draw? A 42/14 player will probably raise Axs on the Button preflop, which is the only heart draw beating us (chances are he is going to check behind with a busted flush draw). Unless it is specifically Q9 (or doubtfully Axs), there aren't draws beating us.

billyjex · #6 09-29-2005, 06:13 PM

I think QJ is pretty likely. I'm not sure if a 14% raiser would raise that after limpers.

This play looks ok. It's pretty close and the only way you'll win the pot. Also hands like J9 might be around.

adamstewart · #7 09-29-2005, 06:16 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Once you bet the flop, I don't see how else you can play it. Semibluff on the turn HU is a must, and I think you fold a draw often enough to make the river bluff profitable.

Only other way to play it is c/c flop and turn and c/f river UI, but I think, I like your line better on this board.

[/ QUOTE ]

What draw? A 42/14 player will probably raise Axs on the Button preflop, which is the only heart draw beating us (chances are he is going to check behind with a busted flush draw). Unless it is specifically Q9 (or doubtfully Axs), there aren't draws beating us.

[/ QUOTE ]

You forget, that if I don't bluff at this pot .... he may bluff with a lower flush draw and I'd be unable to call.

What could villain have then? Any two hearts, QJ, Ax, Qx, Jx, maybe he'll even fold a X,5 ...

Point is: there's no way I'm winning this pot without betting at it. And given the board, and the way this hand played out, I feel a river bet is profitable.

FWIW, I feel I played this hand perfectly. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]
[img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Adam

krishanleong · #8 09-29-2005, 06:16 PM

[ QUOTE ]
It's pretty close and the only way you'll win the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just because this is true doesn't mean he should bet.

The river is a good bet.

Krishan

Jeff W · #9 09-29-2005, 06:18 PM

Most won't like this, but I'd check-call on the flop. I think this nets you some free cards on the turn sometimes and sometimes it yields a profitable bluffing opportunity on the river when the flop bettor checks behind on the turn.

Two more things: You don't take this pot down very often on this flop and you often get isolated by a pair of kings when a more favorable outcome would be check, pair of kings bets and then a hand like Q9 or J9 calls when it would have folded for two cold.

scotty34 · #10 09-29-2005, 06:22 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Once you bet the flop, I don't see how else you can play it. Semibluff on the turn HU is a must, and I think you fold a draw often enough to make the river bluff profitable.

Only other way to play it is c/c flop and turn and c/f river UI, but I think, I like your line better on this board.

[/ QUOTE ]

What draw? A 42/14 player will probably raise Axs on the Button preflop, which is the only heart draw beating us (chances are he is going to check behind with a busted flush draw). Unless it is specifically Q9 (or doubtfully Axs), there aren't draws beating us.

[/ QUOTE ]

You forget, that if I don't bluff at this pot .... he may bluff with a lower flush draw and I'd be unable to call.

What could villain have then? Any two hearts, QJ, Ax, Qx, Jx, maybe he'll even fold a X,5 ...

Point is: there's no way I'm winning this pot without betting at it. And given the board, and the way this hand played out, I feel a river bet is profitable.

FWIW, I feel I played this hand perfectly. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]
[img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Adam

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you have two conflicting statements there. You say he "may" bluff with a lower flush draw, and he may not, depends on the type of player he is. You also say you can't win this pot without betting. Something doesn't add up there.

I suppose the EV of this play depends on his bluffing tendencies.

How often will he bluff a busted draw?
How often will he fold a better draw (of which very few exist)? - probably fairly often
How often will he call a worse hand? - never
How often will he fold a K/T? - pretty close to never