AKo - TPTK

ep510 · #1 09-28-2005, 10:31 PM

MP2 is TAG (14/9/3.7 over 4k hands)
Button is LAG (38/13/2 over 200 hands)

I called the flop 3-bet planning to raise turn, but button surprised me by capping it. I continued with my plan on the turn since it figured that the Q didn't help anyone unless they have specifically KQ or QQ.

This hand really confused me since the action was coming from in front and behind me. Comments?

Party Poker 5.00/10.00 Hold'em (10 handed) link

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
3 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Hero raises, Button calls, 1 folds, BB calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (10.40 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 players)
BB checks, MP2 bets, MP3 calls, Hero raises, Button calls, BB folds, MP2 3-bets, MP3 folds, Hero calls, Button caps, MP2 calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (11.70 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
MP2 bets, Hero raises, Button 3-bets, MP2 folds, Hero calls.

River: (18.70 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 20.70 BB.

W. Deranged · #2 09-28-2005, 10:43 PM

It sucks that button is a lag here, because it makes it pretty tough to fold the turn here.

Thoughts:

1. Button's flop cap is odd, but is very likely to represent one of two things: a 4 or a flush draw. I think it is very unlikely to represent a K or something like that (though AA is a very outside possibility).

2. When MP2 bets back into you AND the button, you need to get really scared. He's saying that he has a hand that can beat a flop raiser and capper. This strikes me as very unlikely to be some kind of odd play with a draw. He likely has at least a big K on the flop (the most likely one just sucked out on you... KQ). Given his profile, a 4 is not that likely; he is very aggressive, but such a line with a hand like KJ seems to be pushing it.

3. If we are raising this turn, I have to think we've got to fold to a three-bet. Putting in two more bets, getting about 9 to 1 effective or something, I think is really pushing it here.

I have a hard time thinking of the best line though. I think the following three options are viable on the turn:

1. Fold to the donk-bet from MP2. I think we're ahead too much for this, honestly, and the pot is pretty damn big.

2. Call the donk-bet and hope to get to a cheap showdown here. The problem with this is that the player behind us is likely to raise again, and so putting in one bet in a situation where we're often going to have to put in two seems silly.

3. Raise the turn and fold to a three-bet. I guess this is best, but I don't like it. I just don't think we're ahead that often. I prefer this to route 2 because it pressures flush draws more and extracts more from hands like KJ which we are beating. Another problem is that we are almost getting priced in to call a three-bet and draw to a K, though I still think a fold is going to be best.

This basically sucks, in my opinion. I think folding the turn can't be that bad. Calling would be good if we weren't so likely to get raised behind us. Raising I guess is okay, but putting in two bets to then fold to a three bet sucks.

I guess this is what it feels like when you have two players colluding against you... this is a tough implicit collusion type situation going on where two-sided aggression puts you in a very hard position with a strong but not unbeatable hand.

Nick C · #3 09-28-2005, 10:51 PM

I really don't know what's going on here. What's MP2 open-limping with from MP2, and what is it about the flop that he likes so much? Is Button cold-call/capping on the flop with just a king (or a flush draw), or does he like the fours?

When MP2 leads the turn, it's not looking like he's slowing down. Does he have AA? 54s? Just a king? (He is pretty aggro postflop.)

I might just call at that point, hoping that MP2 would slow down if Button raised again.

In any event, after you raise and MP2 goes away, I think calling down versus Button is best. I'm expecting to lose to A4s or A4o or 43s maybe even 44, but he's a LAG, so who knows? Maybe he just likes his king or has something like Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

ep510 · #4 09-28-2005, 11:02 PM

[ QUOTE ]

1. Fold to the donk-bet from MP2. I think we're ahead too much for this, honestly, and the pot is pretty damn big.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]

3. Raise the turn and fold to a three-bet. I guess this is best, but I don't like it. I just don't think we're ahead that often.

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[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

W. Deranged · #5 09-28-2005, 11:05 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

1. Fold to the donk-bet from MP2. I think we're ahead too much for this, honestly, and the pot is pretty damn big.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]

3. Raise the turn and fold to a three-bet. I guess this is best, but I don't like it. I just don't think we're ahead that often.

[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm confused too. My basic thought is that MP2's line is too weird, and the player behind us is too laggy, so I don't want to give up the pot without a fight. The problem is that we're not ahead that much, and so raising the turn is going to be both very high variance and, I don't think, particularly high in expectation (though probably slightly higher than folding).

The situation basically sucks.

ep510 · #6 09-28-2005, 11:12 PM

[ QUOTE ]

The situation basically sucks.

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Agreed. But that doesn't mean I can see the river for free (unless I d/c [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] - jk). So we still need to come to a consensus on what line is in fact best.

Btw, I like your analysis Deranged.

(Note: D/cing could actually be worse than raising if button is on a FD or if MP2 is on Kx and hits his higher two pair when he would have folded to a 3-bet)