Snakebit? AA on the river

[Dagger78]

Villian is 20/7/1.5 over 300 hands

Background on snakebit, last 600 hands on this account = down 150BB, Win rate when see the flop over this period 12%. Cards have been running great really, top sets, flopping nut straights(twice), but unfortunately I haven't won many of these pots.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. MP3 posts a blind of $2.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP3 (poster) checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BB calls, MP1 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, MP3 folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB folds, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 3-bets</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (7.25 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, MP1 calls.

River: (15.25 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 17.25 BB

Does he really have Quad tens?, I can't read him for much else.

[W. Deranged]

I don't see much value in a raise here. The only worse hand you're looking for a call from is a bare A, but three are accounted for and that wouldn't make much sense based on the flop and turn action. 88 may well fold to a raise anyway.

[Nick C]

I would just call the river too. It looks like quad tens to me.

And if it's 88 instead, Villain probably wouldn't call a raise anyway. (Well, he shouldn't call one, in any case.) Plus, you'd be opening yourself up to a 3-bet.

Anyway, it sounds like you won. So I guess maybe Villain had A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or something and was getting carried away?

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
I would just call the river too. It looks like quad tens to me.

And if it's 88 instead, Villain probably wouldn't call a raise anyway. (Well, he shouldn't call one, in any case.) Plus, you'd be opening yourself up to a 3-bet.

Anyway, it sounds like you won. So I guess maybe Villain had A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or something and was getting carried away?

[/ QUOTE ]

Basic point is this (P means Probability):

P(Villain has something crazy like an A high club draw) &lt; P(Villain has quads)

So we call.

[Dagger78]

Thanks W, I still thought I might have been good on the river, but didn't think I could raise. I figured an ace was unlikely since I don't think this particular player would have 3-bet me OOP with the flush draw. 88 was a decent possiblilty but though he might even fold that to a raise.

BTW, he showed KTo for Quads.

As a side note, I was planning on calling down and betting if checked to. I figured I was probably behind when he 3-bet the flop. I think that reasoning might have a bit weak though. I just don't think he has an overpair as he would have raised JJ-KK. And he didn't seem like the type to overplay a draw OOP against the PFR.

So should I have popped the turn even if the Ace didn't come, or capped the flop and called down if he bet out the turn?