party isn't rigged my ass

#1 09-24-2005, 04:37 AM

Party Poker (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
5 folds.

Flop: 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 players)
Hero checks, MP3 folds, Hero calls 102.50 (All-In), UTG+2 calls 13.90 (All-In), MP2 calls 49.50 (All-In), CO calls 47.75 (All-In).

Turn: 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players, 4 all-in)

River: 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players, 4 all-in)

Final Pot:

Results in white below: 
Hero has 6s 6h (three of a kind, sixes).
UTG+2 has Qc Qh (three of a kind, queens).
MP2 doesn't show.
CO has 7s 7d (three of a kind, sevens).
Outcome: CO wins . Hero wins . UTG+2 wins .

#2 09-24-2005, 04:38 AM

oh yeah, MP2 had AA

#3 09-24-2005, 04:47 AM

and for the record, this isn't a bad beat thread. i have accepted set over set as a fact of life sometime. I just want an odds person to give me the odds of this.

yvesaint · #4 09-24-2005, 04:50 AM

holy crap set over set actually happens?? i t hought it was a myth

orange · #5 09-24-2005, 04:52 AM

Spam-cry me a river.

#6 09-24-2005, 04:56 AM

I'm not crying. I seriously just want the odds

Riposte · #7 09-24-2005, 05:02 AM

rigged for what? for you specifically to lose?

wtfsvi · #8 09-24-2005, 05:03 AM

<blockquote>Svar på:<hr />
Outcome: CO wins . Hero wins . UTG+2 wins

[/ QUOTE ]
Funny. I think I'd post that hand too.

[img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

#9 09-24-2005, 05:23 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I just want an odds person to give me the odds of this.

[/ QUOTE ]
You don't need an odds person, all you need is an IQ above 80.

Three people hold pocket pairs, 66, 77 QQ. We need a flop of Q76 in any order. There are 52-6 = 46 cards in the deck. There are 6 ways to choose the first card, 4 to choose the second, 2 to choose the third.

So the odds are:
(6/46)*(4/45)*(2/44) = 1 in 1897.

At a 10 handed table, the probability of AT LEAST 3 people holding pocket pairs preflop is 1.78%, or roughly one hand in 56. The number is actually slightly higher than 1.78% as I did an approximation, but it's very close.

So you're going to see this particular situation come up roughly one hand in 100,000. Of course, 66 and 77 flopping sets and QQ catching a set on the turn or river is even more likely, you'll see that 1 hand in 50,000 (in addition to the above), you'll also see 66 quads vs QQ set even more often, or any other myriad of combinations which seem unlikely but are actually expected.

In other words, shut the [censored] up and use your brain. The sites aren't rigged, anyone with a tiny bit of sense can see why.

#10 09-24-2005, 05:27 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I just want an odds person to give me the odds of this.

[/ QUOTE ]
You don't needs an odds person, all you need is an IQ above 80.

Three people hold pocket pairs, 66, 77 QQ. We need a flop of Q76 in any order. There are 52-6 = 46 cards in the deck. There are 6 ways to choose the first card, 5 to choose the second, 4 to choose the third.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, once the first Q, 7, or 6 has come, you only have 4 ways, not 5. Once the next card has come, you only have 2, not 4.