11 Left in 10r - Is a fold here reasonable?

LethalRose · #1 09-23-2005, 02:39 PM

This is from the 10r rebuy a few nights ago, 1st place is a nice 14K.

this hand happened with 11 people left, with 15-10 getting $500. 9th gets about 1k (quite a huge jump)

I have 1.2 million with blinds at 30k/60k, they will go up to 40k/80k in 7 mins. One interesting thing about this mtt is that the blinds will never go above 60k/120k And there are double limits meaning they will be 40k/80k for 30 mins. I've had no trouble accumulating thus far and have rarely been in coinflip situation. avg stack at this point was 750k.

I pick up AKs in the SB, a tighty UTG player with a little over 600k raises half his stack, i know hes not going anywhere if i raise.

Reasons why I can push

1) Premium hand, I need chips, Possible I have him dominated, Im playing to win, AKs is soo pretty (joking)

Reasons to fold.

1) I have 1.2 mil, I have 20BB now and I will never go below 10BB unless I lose a significant hand. This would be one.

2)The payout structure from 11th to 9th.

3) If I lose this, I will have 10BB's and have the blinds coming up soon, so i will have to make a move soon. If I fold, I'll have plenty of time to accumulate chips.

4) The other table isnt going to break up soon, and I have 75% of the chips at my table. I've been eyeing a few players who want to give me their chips b/c they're pissed @ me for some reason or another.

So, good fold, bad fold? close?

im expecting 0 replies as my threads never get any love, not sure why..

TomHimself · #2 09-23-2005, 02:41 PM

this is a very easy push

wdcbooks · #3 09-23-2005, 02:44 PM

You say there is 11 left. That would imply that your table only has five or six people. I might be able to find a fold at a full table, but there is no way I could find a fold short handed.

If this player is tight you can assign a range of 88-AA, KQs, AK-T. You are well ahead of even that very tight range. If your plan is to look for better opportunities I am not sure you will find many better than this to take a commmanding lead.

ansky451 · #4 09-23-2005, 02:47 PM

He has 10 bbs. He is essentially in all in or fold mode, and his half his stack raise, is essentially the same thing as pushing. If someone pushes for 10 bbs there, you dont actually fold AKs do you? The fact that he didn't just push is meaningless I think.

edit: yeah, the fact that the play is shorthanded makes this push even easier, and you are way ahead of his range.

You're probably around 60% against his range, plus with your stack size, its a no brainer. Push.

Rduke55 · #5 09-23-2005, 02:47 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I might be able to find a fold at a full table, but there is no way I could find a fold short handed.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this. Push and even if you lose you still have 10BB. Then you can worry about moving up the scale by folding. If you win then you're at the FT with 30BB and can start taking advantage of the shorties.

What are the other stacks like at the two tables?

Hotrod0823 · #6 09-23-2005, 02:47 PM

I think its and easy push as well.

At worst you face AA or KK. Also possible up against a PP 22-QQ. Also may be Axs - AKx or even KQx etc.

With blinds that big you see raises with any broadway, any Ax and any PP. I think you are ahead more often than not.

He isn't going anywhere but I think you are ahead more than you are behind.

The 1/2 stack raise is a little strange but I don't think you can automatically put them on AA or KK. Really, those are the only 2 hands I don't want to see. The rest I am either ahead or a coin flip.

If you miss you still have 10BB and options. If you hit you are in good shape moving to the FT.

Exitonly · #7 09-23-2005, 02:52 PM

yea i think this is a push.... you'll still be in alright shape if you lose,a nd if you win you'll be in amazing shape. So i thin the risk/reward here is worth it.

If he had considerably more, like you two were running the table and were 1-2 in the tournamnet, i'd probably fold beecacuse you can get the rest of the chips by abusing the bubble.. but since you have him covered by a good amounnt, it's worth it i think

LethalRose · #8 09-23-2005, 02:53 PM

It was 6 handed.

You guys think a fold here is horrible? or silly?

Rduke55 · #9 09-23-2005, 02:53 PM

And while I can't think he's going to fold after putting 1/2 his stack in, people do weird things on the bubble.

Rduke55 · #10 09-23-2005, 02:54 PM

[ QUOTE ]
It was 6 handed.

You guys think a fold here is horrible? or silly?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not married to AK and can fold it in some cases but here I think a fold is not the way to go.