Interesting short stack bubble hand

[Gramps]

Big stack has been aggressive but not "antisocial" or anything, no "macho battle for big stack status" between the two stacks either - both seem pretty rational. Not sure if other short stack would be sharp enough to go all-in on top of my limp here with the bigger short stack (with a wide range of hands, knowing I'd have to beat two hands to stay alive, and knowing that even if he loses to me but beats BB he still has 220 chips) - he's one of those frequent mini-raiser/kind of loose types (pre-bubble) - so that's a bit up in the air as well. I wouldn't eliminate the possibility (although somewhat low) of stack #2 limping behind with some hands and checking down as well (again, both big stacks are rational non-donks).

Hand converter ain't working right now...

Blinds(250/500)
UTG (Hero) - 280
Button - 4120
SB - 390 (140 after posting)
BB - 5210

Dealt to Hero [ Kd Ah ]

Hero (thinks a long arse time) and folds...

[durron597]

Alright, so next hand if you post the BB and win you will have 560 chips and have to post 250 chips in the SB. In the meatime if SB folds his option this hand he will have 140 chips left and if he wins his BB he can still post his SB and have chips left and fold.

So really if you fold here you are risking a random showdown next hand which may or may not contain the second stack checking down to try to bust you in order to win the same chance from the SB. However if you call and win you triple up and aren't allin in the BB next hand; plus you can also fold the SB as well and have 30 chips left. If you call and win and the SB wins the sidepot then he will have 220 chips left and will be allin in his blind.

I think I would fold if SB had 125 chips left after posting and call here. Also this decision is affected by the probability of button limping.

Very interesting, tough hand. What % of the SB's hands do you think he will fold if you do?

[Gramps]

I think SB, if he were smart, would call with like 2/3 of his hands here. But, my guess he isn't, and might only call top 1/4 or 1/3. But while calling with AK means I may survive my BB more often...

...The other intersting twist (which is why I folded, which I'm still not sure was correct or not), is that if I call with my AK and win (with SB surviving, whether he folded or called and lost to me, but beat BB), I have 810/840 chips. I post the BB, folded to SB big stack who pushes, I fold leaving me 310/340. I post SB next hand, I fold, leaving me 60/90. In contrast, if I wait til my BB and win, I have at least 560, and at least 310 after posting my SB.

Now the other short stack be next to be in the BB all-in for 140/220. If he wins his all-in, he'll have > SB and fold, leaving me next to be forced all-in. With the AK call/win & blinds-fold sequence, I only have 60/90, and I now have to win back-to-back all-ins in the BB and SB - winning my BB won't get me above 250 (unless the AK hand was multiway and this BB of mine is multiway). Thus, I'll be forced all-in in the SB again, with the other shorty folding UTG.

Rewind back to the AK hand - If I fold AK and and now I'm all-in in the BB, it's going to be random hand v. random hand the vast majority of the time - UTG's probably only getting invovled with a strong hand (and I have shorty outchipped, so if he gets in with a monster, I only have to beat BB to get past SB, and shorty will still be forced all-in in his BB even if he wins the 3-way pot). So...maybe I get knocked out a tad more than 50% of the time. Well, AK against two random hands is only 48% - and even of the times my AK gets HU against the BB, while I surive 67% of the time, of the times I survive, and the other shorty survives his BB (close to 50% of the time), I'm knocked out in 4th like 80% of the time from there due to having to win two showdowns in a row...

...so...if I call with AK UTG, I survive (for the time being) like 55% (? - Button will get involved on occassion with good hands, SB with 1/4 to 1/3 of hands) vs. about 45% (? UTG will get involved on occasion with good hands, shorty - I have him outstacked, so long as I beat BB I still get past SB and shorty is all-first), but of the times I survive, I'm much better off the times I folded AK, b/c if the shorty wins one hand, I only have to survive one all-in vs. two.

Etc., etc., etc. I think it's close either way, you could do a bunch of math, calling ranges, EV scenarios, etc. to make it all complicated. Oh yeah, and occassionally SB will make a boneheaded SB push with Ax when I fold, yada, etc., who knows...

[Apathy]

Nice post.

The first thing I thought of when I read the hand was the 'winning a forced all in in the bb so you don't have to pay it' thing, which you mentioned in your follow up post.

I think that makes for a compelling argument to fold here.