Wlad/Peter & Cotto/Torres This Sat.

[Tuds75]

Finally a GOOD heavyweight fight! What does everyone think?

Sam Peter -160 *at sportsbook* -155 *at pinnacle*
Wlad Klitschko +135 +145

Rounds: 7.5 *At Sportsbook.com* 6.5 *At Pinnacle*
7.5 O: +120 U: -160
6.5 O: +121 U: -131

No Lines on the Cotto/Torres fight because it was just signed a week or so ago due to an injury to Cotto's former opponet.

I am really twisted with the Wlad/Peter fight. I don't have any recomendations right now stay tuned throughout the week

Tuds

[Indiana]

I have some money on Peter to win -165 @ sportsbook.com. As you know, I find Wlad Klit to be a deplorable fighter and an all around chump. I say he goes down in the first 3 rounds, but that's just me. I think the strongest bet is on Peter str8 up and the under should be teased with a little. I am going to do $500 on the str8 win and $100 on the under. That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

Indy

[Indiana]

I just got really confident in Peter and dropped $4000 on him to win str8 up. I have seen a lack of heart in Klit too many times and Peter is rising to the top. In his last fight he pounded his opponent against the ropes so hard that they almost broke. No way Pansy-boy Klit can handle this type of barrage. I'm a fool with a gambling problem so be careful, but I am reeeeeealy confident that Klit is going to be knocked out this weekend. Its on PPV and I will be on business in Amsterdam so I'll have to be creative with finding a way to watch it at 3am EU time. Do any of u EU bettors know where I could catch this fight over there?

Indy

Here is the twist that this fight can bring. I am a huge fan of Peter , just based on the fact that he can bring so much great drama to the heavyweight division that it needs.

Maybe the next Ike Ibeabuchi!

But here is the thing, Wlad Klit has power, and if people does touch Wlads chin in the first 2 rounds, its because Wlad is touching peters and we are gonna find out what Peter does when he gets hit by a big puncher.

That is the gamble in this fight, if Peter can take a solid heavyweight punch, I straight up bet on Peter and bet the under in a second.

But I dont know that.

I think its safer bet taking Tarver and the under in the Jones/Tarver fight coming up then Peter and the under.

Just cause we simply dont know much about peter yet...

Thanks and keep opinions on this, this fight is so huge for the divison..

[ThaHero]

Anyone know anything about Torres? I'm sure Cotto's handlers picked another tailor-made opponent for him.

I just saw the Morales/Raheem fight. What a fight!! I can't wait to see Raheem fight again.

As far as Klit/Peters. It's been a while since I've seen a Wlad fight. I saw Peters beat up on some old guy on ESPN a couple months back. I think I like Peters in this one, just cause I hate the Klits. I know that's not a good reason lol. Wlad is a very questionable fighter though, IMO, and definately very beatable. For some reason he reminds me of Golota...

I will probably do more research on this tomorrow. It's very late, I need some sleep...Madden Tournament tomorrow. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[Tuds75]

Torres is a mysterious fighter. Bob Arum had a fight between him and Cotto set for Decemeber, but since Cotto former opponet got injured, Arum just moved up the date of the fight. He even put Torres on one of his undercards earlier this year to show him to the boxing public. If you look at Torres' record it looks impressive, but all except 1 or 2 fights have taken place in Columbia and most have been against bottom of the barrell fighters. He did KO his opponet once he stepped up in competition. Torres does have a very good amatuer career. He just missed making the Olympics fought many good fighters when he was coming up.

Torres is being compared to Ricardo Mayorga. He is a big puncher with a loose fighting style. While this style can be taken a part by a good fighter, it can also be a very dangerous style, ask Vernon Forrest. Cotto and his trainers understand the dangers of this type of fighter and the few interviews I have read with Cotto seem to give off the impress of wanting to be careful with such a dangerous opponet. Cotto knows his shot is right around the corner and an upset lose to Torres would move his progress back a big amount. He won't just rush into the ring trade power shots with Torres, but work his opponet the same way he did against Abdulllev, in his last fight. Cotto also has fought Torres as an amateur twice. They both agree Cotto won the fights, but amateur boxing is about output of punches, so that doesn't factor.

Many havn't noticed but this fight is going to be at 147, instead of 140 which Cotto has fought all his career. Torres is also moving up in weight too. We have seen what happens when a fighter moves up in weight (Morrales, Oscar DLH, Mosley, Mayweather, and RJJ). For all these fighters, when they moved up in weight, they may not have lost, but their power was greatly diminished. Cotto is not really a KO puncher, he wears his opponets down and then lays into them with combo that put his opponet away.

For this fight, I think the OVER of 6.5 rounds is a good bet, not as good a Morrales OVER 2 weeks ago, but the price is niiiice. Sportsbook is low at -110, while Pinnacle has it at +140 (as of yesterday). 50% make a big difference. I see Torres coming out like a torrando trying to stun or at least throw Cotto off his game. Cotto should be able to weather Torres' storm and focus on what he was taught to do. Cotto will work the body, jab and throw strong straights upstairs, while looking to wear down Torres instead of getting in a "slugfest" with Torres, which would give Torres his best bet to bet Cotto. The only question is when will Cotto RELLY start to break down Torres and go for the kill, hopefully it is after round 6.

Also, making a small wager on Torres at 12-1 is a decent bet. He has the intagibles (crazy style and punching power) to pull the upset, but it is a longshot, but I there have been quite a few upsets in the last 18 months.


Tuds

[Indiana]

Tuds,

Great analysis, I have laid $300 on the over for the Cotto/Torres fight. Cotto is at his best in the later rounds and he always uses the first few rounds to "feel" out his opponent. Either way, 6.5 rounds is too low and the public is again overvaluing the knockout potential.

Indy

[Tuds75]

I am lost on this fight. I when first announced I was all over Peter just crushing Wlad, but after really thinking this figh over my feelings have shifted in the other direction. I still feel Peter should be favorite in the fight, but lets not get too far ahead of ourselves. Peter has looked good in all his fights, but they have been againts soup cans and guys suited to be KOed by Sam. Wlad on the other hand has fought, AND BEAT, many "good" heavies. Just look at his opponets, he has been tested in the ring be many different type s of oppoent. He fought big guys (McCline) though this was barely a fight, he did intimadate Jameel enought to basically have his quit in the ring. He fought a slick heavy in Chris Byrd and beat him too. But his most telling fight was against a hard punching Ray Mercer. Mind you Mercer was old, but his jab and chin were still evident. Mercer's style is similar to Peter, in that hey both are large, thickly built men who can KO you with a single punch. Peter is much younger and he might not be anything like Mercer as his career unfold, but for right now I see a lot of similarities. Wlad jabbed Mercer over and over again. Wlad took the middle of the ring and his jab moved Mercer into corners and on the ropes where Wlad would come with his best punch the straight right. Wlad connected well and Mercer paid for it.Mercer is never scared of anybody and definatly wont back down, the same way Peter looks/seems. I see Wlad trying to do the same againtst Sam Peter. Getting the middle of the ring and jabbing to keep Peter off balance, then following this jab with straights to Peter's chin. Wlad's jab will dictate the fight. If it's working it will keep Peter at bay and allow Wlad to gain confidence and then lookout.

But in my last paragraph there are lots of IF. Can Peter jab and box when the situation dictates it? Can Wlad continue jabbing to wear out Peter? Can Peter take Wlad's punching power? Can Wlad regain his old form? Can Peter get inside Wald's jab? Can Wlad's chin hold-up to a Peter's punch (not his power/KO punches, because VERY few could take that punch)? Will the Wlad of old show up or will the new fizzle-out Wlad arrive? Is Peter the real deal or just a hyped up puncher? These are just a few of the many. With a fight with SO MANY IFS, I tend to shy away as a bettor, but as a boxing fan my interest in the fight peaks.

In betting terms, I would favor the OVER of 6.5 on Pinnalce. 7.5 rounds if BAD. Every round will matter in this fight. I also like betting on Wlad or even Peter by DEC. at a prop bet. The odds are high on these bets, but a UD/SD could very well happen to the surprise of everyone. Both fighters could shoot off all their guns early and be worn out and fatigued as the fight nears the later rounds. Don't forget that both these guys weight over 240. We could see rounds with 10 total punches per fighter if we get late into the fight. Tougth fight to call, personally I am staying away, maybe a longshot bet on UD/SD by both fighters, just for dahellofit.

Enjoy the Fights. I KNOW I WILL,

Tuds

[Indiana]

Tuds,

I am really excited about these fights. So excited that I will stay up till 3am to watch them in the EU. Still, I think that you and I differ a little in our analyses. You tend to heavily rely on the numbers where I seem to try to look into a guy's heart. I'm telling you that Peter should have almost no trouble with Wlad. Wlad is being built up man, but his own trainer recommended that he retire just less than a year ago. A leopard cannot change his spots and one hit from Peter will end this. Man, Peter hits much harder than Cory Sanders so where's the mystery? I am very very confident in Peter to hurt Wlad and force Manny Stewart to declare once again that Wlad needs to quit the game. I saw one poster say that Wlad is like Golota, and I wanna say kudos for picking that up. He is very much like Golota, unreal body and physique and no heart. Boxing is a different sport than most as it requires a great deal of heart as well as physical talent. I will venture to say that the heart is the most important element of betting on a fighter.

Indy

[Tuds75]

Indy,

I put those lits of Wlad's former opponets in my previous post for a reason, to illustrate the point that you spoker of "leopard not being able to change his spots"

Wlad has beaten top level heavys at their own game. He went rounds w/ Byrd and KO'ed punchers like Botha, McCLine, and Mercer. Their is a reason boxing observers were anontiting him the next HW champ 3 years ago, because he was beating showcasing his skills. And like you said, these skills/"spots" really don't disappear from a 29 year old fighter in 2-3 years. Iwatched many of Wlad's previous fights and I see that potential still in him. Let me say this again, I DON'T THINK WLAD WILL WIN, SHOOT I DON'T EVEN WANT HIM TO WIN, BUT I THINK MANY PEOPLE ARE GOING TO BE SURPRISED AFTER THIS FIGHT.

The one thing Indy you touched on that is being overlooked is Manny Steward in Wlad's corner. Manny Steward is one of, if not the top trainer in boxing today. He has trained champions and boxing greats. I am putting faith in him to put a good product in the ring with a good plan. If Wlad lose his head and forget everything Manny told him, yes it will be a short KO for Peter, but I think Manny knows a thing or two about the sport of boxing and he knows Peter will try to knock Wlad's head off, so he has prepared his fighter to stay away from any punches that could remove his cranium from his body.

REPEAT: I like the OVER 6.5 on Pinnacle and Hate the OVER of 7.5. I also like the prop bet of Wlad or even Peter winning a UD/SD at 11 to 13 -1.

I just got off the phone with my buddy from Puerto Rico and has talking about Cotto, man I am getting excited for these fights.

Tuds