The Bullcr*p Factor

[Poker Cat]

How likely is it that your opponent is full of it when he bets?

You've got your stats and your more stats. Aggression factor, VPIP, etc. But what I really need, especially HUSH, is a formula for calculating BCF.

Obviously, loose opponents who bet often have a high BCF. But often, so do the tight aggressive players. They're often likely to push a hand all the way to the end with a bluff or semi-bluff.

Most surprising is the good customers, the loose passive players with an AF < 1.0. They often don't even bet TPTK, so when they do bet they tend to have it. But not always. Yesterday I had a confrontation with one of these guys, all rounds capped heads up, and he showed down an unimproved Q2s. What made this stiff suddenly go postal?

The only clue in his stats (other than his overall bad play) was his Attempt to Steal > 50%. Clearly, this normally passive player could turn thief whenever he thought
he had "easy prey". But how often?

[bds]

I haven't found any way to tell from just the stats. When I think I understand a player from the stats, they do something that surprises me - passive player raising me on the turn with nothing at all, someone with a very low preflop raise percentage raising garbage from early position and I fold a decent hand preflop thinking they have a real hand only to see them show down crap, player with aggressive postflop numbers not raising anywhere in the hand with top pair, etc. The only way I have found to start to determine this is by making notes as I play against an individual. I'd love to hear how others use the stats for this.