How to play this -EV situation

[TruFloridaGator]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) converter

SB (t7565)
BB (t3850)
UTG (t525)
Hero (t1560)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG folds, Hero?

PT says this is terribly -EV. However, I ended up pushing, I thought you can't guarantee that the ss busts? Is this terrible?

[Nicholasp27]

u can't guarantee that ss busts, however

you are pushing into two big stacks
you have 8bbs, so you don't need to push mediocre hands
stolen blinds are <20% of your stack
jko is not a good hand

I would fold this everytime. Just like the above poster said, your pushing into two big stacks that might call you with any ace, and the short stack has to put half his chips in blind next hand. Wait it out man. I would need 88+ or AJ+ to push here, it's just to risky.

[RobGW]

Winning those $300 in blinds is not going to change your position in the tourney at all. You'll still be in line for 3rd. So by pushing you are risking busting out in 4th with UTG about to have to put in half his stack on the next hand. He'll be compelled to call with any 2. Even if he doubles up you'll still have him outchipped. I'd have to fold this.

[Newt_Buggs]

I would definitly fold this.

Is your goal to just finish in the money? Then call, and play carefully. KJo is a fine hand very short handed. If you are up against a higher K or J you will likely face a raise, and can fold then with little investment. If not, you might flop the best hand. Folding is a great play too

If you goal is to win the tournament, and 2nd-4th are the same to you, then you have to challenge here. You have only 5 times the BB+SB, which means you are desparate. You have *at most* 12 hands until you are a little bug to be swatted away. If you wait two rounds and get AA and double up, then where are you? Still in danger! You should raise strongly while you still have the ability to hurt the big stacks. Plus, they expect you to play conservatively, and will be less likely to look you up.

[Ixnert]

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Is your goal to just finish in the money? Then call, and play carefully.

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Terrible idea. With these stack sizes, if you just call and I'm the big stack, I'm raising you all-in something like 2563463% of the time, with pretty much any two cards. The rare times that you're trapping and I'm way behind are more than made up for by the great majority of the time that you realize you can't possibly call.

[ QUOTE ]

If you goal is to win the tournament, and 2nd-4th are the same to you, then you have to challenge here.

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In a standard SNG, 2nd to 4th are never the same to you. Playing to win is great, and yes, the money is less, but a significant portion of your ROI is from those 2nd and 3rd places. Don't make silly plays in the guise of "playing for first" when the much more likely result is that you'll play yourself right out of the money.

Of course, in a satellite or winner-take-all format, it's totally different, but in that case we're not on the bubble here, are we? (In a winner-take-all, I agree, you probably want to push here.)

[TruFloridaGator]

gracias

1) very true. If thought there was any chance my opponents will play in this manner, I would not call. There is a good chance that no opponents were not dealt Ax or KK or KQ. So giving up on KJo is too conservative. Now that I think about it this is a clear raise/fold, and it's silly of me to say otherwise.

If you goal is to maximize money, then I think this just depends on how you feel. It is borderline to play as long as that tiny stack is still around, but I fully believe a good player can make a profit off this hand. I think it is fine to bully your opponents with, unless they are too loose.

and of course, it is bad to go for first or broke. but some people do it, so it is worth breaking down.

[jedinite]

I like folding here for multiple reasons... going in to two players both who are big stacked, your urgency is not quite so high with 7+BB left, and you've got a small stack behind you with one-third your chips. Those three add together to tell me to fold, baring a read of the table as extra-tight.

Most specifically I fold here because the SB has such a monster stack. He can call you here with a pretty wide range being that he's still going to have a 150% the chips of second place (and close to the same chips as 2nd + 3rd together) even if he loses.

If you were the short stack or already ITM its an easy push IMO, but in this scenario I make what I consider a tough but good fold.