#1
|
|||
|
|||
A difficult 10/20 AA hand
10/20, effective stack 2k, 6max, you just sat down.
Tough player opens UTG, 2+2er calls, you raise pot from BB with AA, both call, pot is 1050 Flop J98 all clubs You check (I think this is correct a very large percentage of the time, but I'd like to hear legit well thoughtout arguments if anyone disagrees), tough player bets pot, 2+2er folds, action? Probable hand range for tough player is AA-88. With most likely a club draw, i.e. KcKx. Give it 70% he has a pair+club, and 30% he has a set. AcKc is possible but I don't think it would be played so quick (but I have no clue, just from what I would think). Move in or fold? My primary thought was the amount of money already in the pot. ~Rationale for flop cehck: very easy to get stolen from, very easy to steal on turn if flop goes check check check. |
#2
|
|||
|
|||
Re: A difficult 10/20 AA hand
Before anyone asks he does not have the Ac
|
#3
|
|||
|
|||
Re: A difficult 10/20 AA hand
would this be posted if he did?
|
#4
|
|||
|
|||
Re: A difficult 10/20 AA hand
With the stacks this shallow, there's no folding equity with a push (it would be like 300 more into a pot of 3000 or whatever). I don't think you can really mess around in this spot, but I think tough player is going to bet pot with any holding after you check to him. The problem is that most holdings a good player would open UTG and call a reraise with are either crushing you or have a good redraw. I guess you have to fold. This flop blows, and there's no room to maneuver with the stack sizes.
|
#5
|
|||
|
|||
Re: A difficult 10/20 AA hand
[ QUOTE ]
I think tough player is going to bet pot with any holding after you check to him. [/ QUOTE ] Not even remotely true, especially with 2+2er behind him. [ QUOTE ] The problem is that most holdings a good player would open UTG and call a reraise with are either crushing you or have a good redraw. I guess you have to fold. [/ QUOTE ] You got this right though. |
#6
|
|||
|
|||
Re: A difficult 10/20 AA hand
id let it go.
|
#7
|
|||
|
|||
Re: A difficult 10/20 AA hand
If he won't bet this flop without a set, TcTx or a pair with a big club it adds up to a fold IMO.
|
#8
|
|||
|
|||
Re: A difficult 10/20 AA hand
[ QUOTE ]
id let it go. [/ QUOTE ] |
#9
|
|||
|
|||
Re: A difficult 10/20 AA hand
[ QUOTE ]
Give it 70% he has a pair+club, and 30% he has a set. AcKc is possible but I don't think it would be played so quick (but I have no clue, just from what I would think). Move in or fold? My primary thought was the amount of money already in the pot. [/ QUOTE ] i did a quick ev calculation using your read of 70% pair+club, 30% set and found, somewhat surprisingly, that pushing would actually be +ev by about $130. however, i just plugged in a flat 55% equity vs pair+club and 8% vs set in that calculation. i didn't assign percentages to how often you might be up against AcAx (you're drawing dead to a chop, he's 36% to scoop), or QcQx/TcTx (pair+club+gutshot/pair+club+oesd, against which your equity drops to 48% and 40% respectively). and then there has to be some percentage of the time you're actually facing a flopped flush. these other scenarios probably make pushing -ev. |
|
|