River bluffraise...

[Nick Royale]

SB is TAG after 400 hands (14/9/2.4)
MP3 is loose/passive (33/4/0.8)


Party Poker (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, 4 callers, Hero checks.

Flop: 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
<font color="red"> SB bets </font>, Hero call, MP3 calls, CO folds, Button folds.

Turn: A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="red"> SB bets </font>, Hero call, MP3 folds.

River: K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="red">SB bets </font>, <font color="red"> Hero raises </font>...

Thoughts?

[crunchy1]

I'm not for it or against it because I don't think the stats/reads you provided give enough information to determine if it's good or bad.

[Nick Royale]

Sure, folded river stats would be good. This is all I got and I guess you'll have to estimate how a player with these kind of hands will play hands like QJ/QT/Qxs/99/88. This is also depending on whether or not he's got a read on me, which I don't know. There's many factors to take into consideration while playing and we don't often have them all exact calculated. I think the stats provided is enough for a discussion, but I might be wrong...

[crunchy1]

I wasn't trying to come off as harsh - but I guess my opinion is that I don't think that what you've provided is really enough for a good discussion of the river raise. What about WSD% or W$SD? How about VP$IP from the SB? Those would be helpful in analysis - and something that would've been available at the table.

The one stat that I'd look at that you provided is his AF which being &gt; 2 seems to suggest that he's either betting/raising or folding a high percentage of the time. That's great - but, it's only a good thing if he's folding some winners which you can get a picture of by looking at the showdown stats. Otherwise your bet is just going to get called or raised by his better hand.

[@bsolute_luck]

i guess you stopped the river action because he folded? i guess would a Q fold here? would a TAG continue to bet a 3/7/flush draw on every street?

my default line is: no....

If you are gonna bluff it here, you should be bluffing on the turn. The ace is a great card and in the position you are in it is hard for the player behind you to call 2 cold on the turn.

I don't like this play on the river unless you have seen him fold the river a lot, but the way he has played it I don't see him folding here.

What hand can he put you on here, in my opinion you haven't really shown very much strength at all, looks a little bit suspicious. The raise on the turn however would make sense as he could read you for a monster or a turned pair of aces which beats his pair of queens.

[TheHammer24]

I rarely bluff raise the river, however, against a thinking tag i particularly like this spot. Villian is bet/folding this a lot, especially with the two over cards that came on the turn and river.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
i guess you stopped the river action because he folded?

[/ QUOTE ]
He called holding KQ.

[ QUOTE ]
would a TAG continue to bet a 3/7/flush draw on every street?

[/ QUOTE ]
A tag wouldn't bet 3/7 at all, but maybe a flush draw.

[Harv72b]

You're in a pretty precarious situation on the river. He's TAG over 400 hands, which means that he's betting the river for one of two reasons: either because he has a strong enough hand that he believes it's a value bet, or because he has absolutely nothing (busted flush draw with no pair) and can only win if you fold. Since you are risking 2 BBs to win 7, he has to have bet a busted flush draw, no pair, on every street, about 30% of the time for you to win money with that raise. I think that's pretty unlikely, especially with the A on board.

He's not often going to bet a 1 pair Q, 7, or 3 hand (or even KsXs that caught 1 pair on the river) because he's far more often going to check/call the river, putting you on a busted flush draw after you flat call every street. Especially if he has a similar sample size on your play.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
You're in a pretty precarious situation on the river. He's TAG over 400 hands, which means that he's betting the river for one of two reasons: either because he has a strong enough hand that he believes it's a value bet, or because he has absolutely nothing (busted flush draw with no pair) and can only win if you fold. Since you are risking 2 BBs to win 7, he has to have bet a busted flush draw, no pair, on every street, about 30% of the time for you to win money with that raise. I think that's pretty unlikely, especially with the A on board.

[/ QUOTE ]
I was thinking about folding a Q.

[ QUOTE ]
He's not often going to bet a 1 pair Q, 7, or 3 hand (or even KsXs that caught 1 pair on the river) because he's far more often going to check/call the river

[/ QUOTE ]
This is was I wonder about. I thoght he might bet/fold a Q, because I find myself doing it quite a lot here. That might be a leak in my game otoh.