Trips with A kicker, river decision

wtfsvi · #1 09-10-2005, 08:44 AM

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Button is a 27/10/3, ok player. BB is unknown.

Hero ($199.02)
BB ($211.65)
UTG ($193.30)
MP ($170.51)
CO ($244.30)
Button ($118.50)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Hero posts a blind of $1.
3 folds, Button raises to $7, Hero (poster) calls $6, BB calls $5.

Flop: ($21) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets $15, BB calls $15, Button folds.

Turn: ($51) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $40, BB calls $40.

River: ($131) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, BB pauses for 15 secs and bets $90, Hero...?

vanHelsing · #2 09-10-2005, 09:31 AM

You are not considering folding, are you?

I think often this is a busted draw, where calling or raising won't make any difference.
Pushing or just calling looks marginal to me, you haven't much left anyway.

#3 09-10-2005, 10:01 AM

Easy call. You induced a bluff by checking the river, he bet 2/3 the pot, you have to call. He either has a busted draw that you beat, of course, or has trips also. My fear here is that he was calling with K-Q. But he could also have been calling with Q-J or Q-10 or God only knows what. He could also have had the draw with the king and then figured once you checked he was good.

So I definitely think the king is a bad card, but I think there is too high of a possiblity that you're ahead to fold. There are too many hands you beat here that he would play exactly the same way once you check the river. Call and hope the king didn't make a boat for him.

wtfsvi · #4 09-10-2005, 06:27 PM

Yes, I'm considering folding. I checked the river with the intention of calling any bet (certainly a push), but this long pause before he bet $90 really threw me off. Am I just crazy, or does anyone else see that as extreme strength?

jkkkk · #5 09-10-2005, 06:34 PM

I've often thought about what a pause means, but then I create pauses all the time when I'm multi-tabling (Hidden EV in multi-tabling lol).

I call, he might of been looking at a website or another table then come back to yours, thought the hand threw and made your check for being scared of trips.

Bukem_ · #6 09-10-2005, 06:41 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Am I just crazy, or does anyone else see that as extreme strength?

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe, but your hand is too strong here to fold because of a possible internet tell.

UOPokerPlayer · #7 09-10-2005, 06:47 PM

Well I think you've played it perfectly on flop and turn. I think the hands that are played the way that BB played this are all beating you, unless he's getting out of line. QJ, Q10, and AQ and a busted flush draw are the only things I can see playing this way that you're ahead of/splitting. That being said, you can take two different lines on the river, a blocking bet (probably $40), or checking (which you did). If you checked here to induce a bluff, you simply have to call. I only take the induce bluff line against opponents that I know play draws passively and will bluff a missed river. This guy is an unknown, so I really think the blocker bet is better. He's very unlikely to raise your bet with a hand worse than yours.

UOPokerPlayer · #8 09-10-2005, 06:49 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Yes, I'm considering folding. I checked the river with the intention of calling any bet (certainly a push), but this long pause before he bet $90 really threw me off. Am I just crazy, or does anyone else see that as extreme strength?

[/ QUOTE ]

The long wait means he's thinking about something. So whether he is thinking about whether or not to bluff the river with a busted draw, whether he should value bet Q10, or how much he should bet with his full house, these are all reasons he could've taken that long. I wouldn't make it a deciding factor in calling.

wtfsvi · #9 09-11-2005, 07:51 AM

I checked the river to induce a bluff, and of course with the intention of calling it. I didn't get a bluff however, I got a value bet. The long wait before he bet and the suspicious bet size got me quite convinced of that.

Now I figure he could have QT/QJ/QK/QA, a flopped set or KK. (I think AA is unlikely because of the river action, and because he is even more likely to reraise that preflop). I'm ahead of 8 combinations + the off chance of AA, splitting with 3 and behind 12 (incluing KK).

He could also be tricky and try to make the bluff look like a value bet. Unknowns are capable of that sometimes, but most of the time they're not. (And sinse I am an unknown to him, he would likely deem it futile anyway.)

It turns out that even with my try-to-make-this-a-fold-analysis, it looks like a call would've been correct. But at the time I was just so sure he had KQ that I folded.

gol4pro · #10 09-11-2005, 07:56 AM

This has got to be the most weak-tight fold I've ever seen in my life.

If you're so sure he's got KQ.... overbet the turn massively, and shove any river (including the K), KQ would NEVER fold to an overbet on this turn, so you stack him off most of the time (the others he draws out).

Horrible fold. I still really like a turn overbet though-- 2x the pot.