Hand Reading made the River Bet Easy

QTip · #1 09-09-2005, 03:35 PM

He's 13/6.5/1.5 and plays fairly straight forward

Just thought it might be fun for some...

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (7 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG raises, Hero 3-bets, 4 folds, UTG calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG bets, Hero raises, UTG calls.

Turn: (5.75 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets, UTG calls.

River: (7.75 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets,

#2 09-09-2005, 03:41 PM

I like it...perfectly played IMO. I think the other player has a medium holding like TT or lower. QQ would have reraised the flop and AK likely would have done something on the turn. I'm not sure if he called you, but a bet is +EV here IMO.

Lozing

Cumulonimbus · #3 09-09-2005, 03:41 PM

Hell yeah? I don't see any reason to do otherwise. Am I missing something?

W. Deranged · #4 09-09-2005, 03:42 PM

It is unlikely the K helped villain since he would not likely bet out overcards on the flop or just check-call once the K hit.

Villain is not that likely to have AA here because of the flop and pre-flop action. QQ is a possibility though most players would give a little more action with it; passives though will often not get that deep here fearing AA or KK.

Villain is extremely unlikely to have two pair (pre-flop raise) or a set (would've gotten more action at some point).

Flush is unlikely since only real possibilities would be nut combos A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]; either would've given you more action by this point.

I think TT is probably the most likely hand villain could be holding, followed by QQ, 88, and A9s. The last two a bit less likely because a player with those stats often will not be raising those hands.

Betting here is for value and for the outside possibility of maybe folding out QQ.

W. Deranged · #5 09-09-2005, 03:43 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I like it...perfectly played IMO. I think the other player has a medium holding like TT or lower. QQ would have reraised the flop and AK likely would have done something on the turn. I'm not sure if he called you, but a bet is +EV here IMO.

Lozing

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From the kind of player described, I'm actually expecting to see TT here damn near 50% of the time.

Octopus · #6 09-09-2005, 03:48 PM

My best read: He has QQ or something and was planning to pop you on the turn, but the flush/king scared him and he decided to call down. Or he has AK and again, the flush scares him and he is calling down. Or he has A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q and will fold to your river bet.

In any case, it is not clear to me that this is an easy river bet. But, as we know, I am a wimp on the river. Enlighten me. TT is thie only reasonable hand that we like that will play like this; are you that sure he has it?

W. Deranged · #7 09-09-2005, 03:51 PM

[ QUOTE ]
My best read: He has QQ or something and was planning to pop you on the turn, but the flush/king scared him and he decided to call down. Or he has AK and again, the flush scares him and he is calling down. Or he has A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q and will fold to your river bet.

In any case, it is not clear to me that this is an easy river bet. But, as we know, I am a wimp on the river. Enlighten me.

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I doubt a villain with that profile bet out the flop with overcards and a backdoor flush draw.

A bet on the flop from a tight passive here indicates a pair very often. I think it's more likely to be a pair we beat (TT or possibly 88) than one we're beat by (QQ is about the only real option), hence we find a bet.

QTip · #8 09-09-2005, 03:53 PM

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I like it...perfectly played IMO. I think the other player has a medium holding like TT or lower. QQ would have reraised the flop and AK likely would have done something on the turn. I'm not sure if he called you, but a bet is +EV here IMO.

Lozing

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From the kind of player described, I'm actually expecting to see TT here damn near 50% of the time.

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I was thinking at least 85% or the time TT or a chop or something out character the other 15%.

QTip · #9 09-09-2005, 03:55 PM

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Am I missing something?

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Just thought it might be fun for some...

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W. Deranged · #10 09-09-2005, 03:59 PM

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I like it...perfectly played IMO. I think the other player has a medium holding like TT or lower. QQ would have reraised the flop and AK likely would have done something on the turn. I'm not sure if he called you, but a bet is +EV here IMO.

Lozing

[/ QUOTE ]

From the kind of player described, I'm actually expecting to see TT here damn near 50% of the time.

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I was thinking at least 85% or the time TT or a chop or something out character the other 15%.

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Nice hand, QT. I really, really enjoy hands where it's possible to put villain on a very tiny range of hands and to bet accordingly.

This is actually kind of a nice exercise in hand reading. TT is very much the most likely hand but I'm not sure everyone here would've gotten that.