When aggression and your current 'luck' don't mix

[KDF]

What do you do to adjust your own game when your warranted aggression and the cards are out of sinc? This basically occurs when you are justly raising with big pairs, big aces or other top level hands and even hitting the flop, and or turn but you are getting beat hand after hand. You find yourself down quite a bit and no one is respecting your raises what so ever.

I find this happens online sometimes and creates huge losses. With the speed of the game and the lack of personal presence, it seems to be amplified online. Last night, for example, I had almost every imaginable level 1 and 2 hand cracked, by much weaker hands. Even when I’d back into trips or a low straight, I would get called down and beaten too many times. I know in the long run those hands will prove to be profitable, but in the short run, I can taste the ‘bad luck’ and the other players seem to be playing on my image of the ‘unluckiest’ guy at the table.

The fuzziness works something like this: After receiving AQs and TT and losing and then losing your KK to a ten-high straight (the guy had 9-7 and cold called from the sb)- you get delt KQs, everybody folds to you on the button- and you debate about raising, --why? I dunno- because their going to call anyway? and their going to beat me anyway. It’s a superior hand by far to a random blind had, but this is the forth good hand in a row and you just lost 60% of your table stake in those last three, now you are feeling pretty bad about your chances, and its changed your thinking. Of course! I must raise- and the blinds call and beat you. You think: “ this really sucks”
I guess we’ve all been there. What do you do (if anything) to counter this at the table/ in the short term?<FORM METHOD=POST ACTION="http://www.twoplustwo.com/forums/dopoll.php"><INPUT TYPE=HIDDEN NAME="pollname" VALUE="1051458395KDF">


Options:
<input type="radio" name="option" value="1" />Keep playing as usual
<input type="radio" name="option" value="2" />Quit for the night
<input type="radio" name="option" value="3" />Find another game
<input type="radio" name="option" value="4" />Slow down and tighten up
<input type="radio" name="option" value="5" />other

This is an opinion poll, not neccessarily right or wrong. Thanks for "voting". Explanations and opinions are also welcome.

[travisand]

Once I find myself actually stopping and thinking about raising the blinds with KQs because I KNOW that I am going to lose is when I just get up from the table.

[Nottom]

I know exactly how you feel. After blowing most of my online bankroll in a few bad sessions at 5/10 when I didn't have an adaqeuet bankroll, I'm back playing micro limits again and am constantly seeing my big hands getting cracked by lesser hands. I know I have had to change my style a bit to make up for it especially pre-flop.

I'm much less likely to raise high-middle pairs (99-JJ)from EP or after limpers because it doesn't seem to do anything to limit the field, same thing with hands like AQ. Theres a section in HEFAP that discuses the AQ situtation, which basically advises you not to raise preflop if you don't think it will limit the field, since it will make the chasing that the bad players will do anyway more correct due to the size of the pot.

The other thing I would recommend is to understand when you are beat (something I need to work on as well) if you suddenly started getting raised by a guy who is content to call with top pair, you might want to respect it a little more even if they don't respect your raises. Additionally, against weaker players be less likely to try and semibluff since they are not going to fold if they have any piece of the flop.

Anyway, just some advice from a fellow player down on his luck. Hope things turn around for you soon.

[roGER]

Hello KDF,

I suspect we actually have two questions going on here:

1) What to do when my morale gets lowered by successive beats?

2) Is my "basic" strategy correct or does it need changing?

In answer to question 1, you could probably get a lot of benefit from understanding that poker is subject to massive standard deviation compared to win rate.

For example, it seems an accepted fact that you need to play about 500 hours of "real" (not online) poker to even find out if you are winning player. Assuming about 30-35 hands per hour, if we translate that to online poker, that's about 17,500 hands. Losing streaks of several thousand hands aren't that uncommon, and if you play a lot, you will have to endure them...

I actually suspect a hell of a lot of morale problems associated with long losing streaks come from being under-bankrolled, or playing at levels where you may be uncomfortable with the swings. Perhaps you could look at this?

In answer to question 2, if you are pretty sure the blinds are not going to fold, then raising on the button loses some of its value, perhaps a lot. Basically you've turned a steal raise into a value raise, although don't forget the possibility that players will tend to check to the raiser, which means you can award yourself a somewhat dangerous free card from time to time...

There's so much to say on this, but I'll confine myself to one last point - are you reading your opponents correctly, especially when you are demoralised? I dunno about you, but I find myself falling into two traps:

1) I simply can't believe they sucked out on me yet again. So when a weak tight player raises me on the turn after that "safe" two of hearts has come up, I find it hard to release my hand, even though I know the chances are I'm beaten.

2) Better players might indeed notice you've been losing and your game is going off, and may try bluff/semi-bluff raises and reraises particularly on the flop and turn. They'll tend to do this when a scare card such as Ace appears. You really have to try and objectively observe your opponents and get some kind of handle on their sophistication level.

When I'm demoralised, I find myself making wild "emotional" decisions, rather than cool objective ones.

Sorry for the long rambling answer - perhaps (for me at least) the key point has been getting adequately bankrolled - if the money doesn't matter too much, its much easier to play correct poker, think of the long run and let the winning take care of itself...

Hope things work out for you - remember if you are a winning player and play long enough regression to the mean (or should that be ascension to the mean?) will occur sooner or later, and when it does occur its a joy to behold!

Caretake,

- roGER

[rayrns]

You could have just used my name on this post as well. One player always got a pair higher than mine (usually on the last card) or had a card one number higher for a kicker. I think the answers I read made part of "my" problem clearer. Hope they helped you as well. I know this post doesn't help, only to confirm that you are not alone.

Just like what you said: "We've been all there." I only play B&amp;M. Two weeks ago, I got into that situation and decided your Option 1 for another half-hour or another dealer. When that didn't work, I went to Option 3 by changing tables - there are normally 3-5 games to choose from on Saturdays. Played for an hour and a half on the next table and went again to Option 1. Didn't work, Option 3 again. Still did not work, Option 3 again and finally realized that Option 2 is the best for the evening after being bloodied for 60 BBs in 9 hrs. I think this is a situation where an extreme discipline is needed - Not the discipline to avoid tilting but the discipline when to quit which I sometime fail to exercize myself - FAILURE to follow all those lengthy advice in the Psychology forum, mags, etc. Whose to blame? ME! [img]/forums/images/icons/frown.gif[/img]

[SoBeDude]

You've touched on a subject where I think many poker books lead us awry.

This concept that regardless where we're at in terms of up or down in chips, if we think we're favored to win you're supposed to keep your butt in the seat and play.

There are two major problems with this.

First, unless we're an expert, we can easily misread our situation, be in a bad spot, yet still think we're favored to win. This is very bad I think and can lead to some huge one-night losses.

Second, once you're losing, you're a target. Even if you suffer in silence, say nothing about your losses and smile at your bad beats, people still notice you taking $100's out of your pocket and rebuying. This means people stop respecting your raises, foil any steal and bluff attempts and basically take more shots at you.

If you're down 2 full buy-ins (or less!), you need to get up and leave. Inless you're a pro and know and I mean KNOW you can get back, then get the heck outta there.

And I don't know about anyone else, but my worst nights start bad, get worse, then deteriorate from there. Never has there been a night where I'm up big and I give it back and more to end up down racks of chips.

My big losing nights I start down and it just keeps going south. When I look back at the session I can't find a problem with my game. I was rested, alert, playing tight-aggressive, etc. I think its image and not realizing you're not adjusting to subtle game conditions which is making you play incorrectly.

I think the books give bad advice in this area. If you're taking a nosedive don't lie to yourself and think "Hey, the next rack and I'll make a comeback". Get outta there. Come back to fight another day.

-Scott

[SittingBull]

about 45% of my bankroll within about 3-weeks. [img]/forums/images/icons/frown.gif[/img]
I then took a few days off. [img]/forums/images/icons/laugh.gif[/img] When I returned,I reduced my playing session time and settled for small wins [img]/forums/images/icons/blush.gif[/img]
I gradually recouped and went on to new record highs [img]/forums/images/icons/laugh.gif[/img] . Never looked back since(LOL!) [img]/forums/images/icons/laugh.gif[/img] . My "management method" enabled me to regain my lost confidence. [img]/forums/images/icons/laugh.gif[/img]
The key is having a good bankroll to sustain yourself during "difficult times". [img]/forums/images/icons/shocked.gif[/img]
And when these "difficult times" do arrive,take a few days off,relax, and do other things that u might like to do. [img]/forums/images/icons/laugh.gif[/img]
Happy pokering, [img]/forums/images/icons/laugh.gif[/img]
SittingBull

[Tommy Angelo]

At a B&amp;M game I quit right now when I get that sinking powerless feeling. I estimate that my expected earn can be as low as -$100 per hour (and yes, I mean average expectation) after a long string of losing hands against sharky opponents sends me into that self-defeating slump state. The best part of my game always has been quitting. It doesn't require any discipline on my part to quit when things suck. It would require more effort to continue playing. I'm lucky in that way.

The other side of the coin is that my expected earn in a shorthanded game when I've got the power working (and I don't just mean catching cards) is $200 per hour. So for me, game selection, which is also current-mindset-selection, is dang near everything.

As to online, I don't know how to quit, at all, when things go as you described. So I uninstalled all casinos.

The whole "microlimit" thing online raises questions in my mind. When you (or whoever) plays in those games, and you are playing well, folding hands before the flop, making thoughtful raises and folds on the turn, just what exactly is your motive behind playing well?

Tommy

[Duke]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr />
The whole "microlimit" thing online raises questions in my mind. When you (or whoever) plays in those games, and you are playing well, folding hands before the flop, making thoughtful raises and folds on the turn, just what exactly is your motive behind playing well?


[/ QUOTE ]

Precisely. That's always been my problem. I play horribly in a 1-2 (or whatever) online game, basically because I can't get over that "it's only $2" thing. And it's weird. I have no motive for playing well.

Why is it weird? Because when I'm playing for "real" money, the money doesn't matter. It -cannot- matter if I'm going to play the game like I need to to beat it. Throwing out enough chips to buy a kick-ass dinner is easy enough, when it's the right play - even if it's a stone-cold bluff. Clicking "call" when it's only $2, when it's the wrong play, is also too easy. Which is why I'm consistently "stuck" online.

I have the same problem with home games. The first home game I ever played in found me stuck quite a bit (for the game in question), and someone made a comment that pissed me off. So I turned it around, and beat the hell out of that game for the rest of the night.

When it's online, or a home game... it's play money. It really is. And that's why I think I am a consistent loser in those games. It's tough to beat a game playing every hand.

But will I avoid them? Hells no. Online is fun to drink to and blow off steam. Home games are great for hanging out with your buddies. I don't ever see myself playing in a home game with friends and actually trying to show a profit for the session. If it happens it'll be by accident. No, I don't consider it poker. Poker is a job of sorts - micros and homers are recreation.

Note that I'm dead serious, and not trying to get invitations to all of your guys' home games. Clarkmeister and Dynasty can testify that I'll play nearly every hand. The cards, and the results, really don't matter to me.

~D