AA - big pot on raggedy board.

TripleH68 · #1 09-08-2005, 02:03 AM

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

UTG+1 is 33/6/0.76. BB is 12/2/1.0. Button is 27/0/2.5.

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $2.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, Hero raises, 2 folds, Button 3-bets, 1 fold, BB caps, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls, Button calls.

Flop: (17.50 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB bets, UTG+1 raises, Hero calls, Button folds, BB 3-bets, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls.

Did I miss bets on the flop?

Turn: (13.25 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, UTG+1 raises, Hero ?

BB's hand is pretty transparent, but UTG+1 worries me.

MrWookie47 · #2 09-08-2005, 02:04 AM

Easy flop 3bet.

TripleH68 · #3 09-08-2005, 02:05 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Easy flop 3bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Crack me with the whip duh. What is your action on the turn?

MrWookie47 · #4 09-08-2005, 02:16 AM

What, you want me to answer the hard question?

Well, first of all, if you had 3bet the flop, the turn situation would be completely different. As you played it, I think it's a fold. You're very often going to be looking at a set, a straight, or 2 pair if you're lucky. You're getting 8:1 right now, but you don't know if it's going to be 3bet and/or capped behind you. Given a pretty high likelihood of drawing to 2 or fewer outs, and that you're drawing to 8 at best (and you can't know which pairing of the board saves you), I think this is a fold, as much as it sucks.

TripleH68 · #5 09-08-2005, 02:50 AM

Thanks wookie,

Okay I have had time to think.

On the turn BB has KK.

UTG+1 either
a) flopped a str8 and I am dead.
b) flopped a set and I have a 2-outer.
...no cap on the flop leans me toward...
c) some two pair hand.

If c then hero has two ace outs, three deuce outs and three other outs - most likely 7s, maybe 5s.

So I am off to do some calculations...

TripleH68 · #6 09-08-2005, 03:03 AM

Pokerstove:

Hero = AA.
BB = AA-QQ.
Villain = 77-55,76s-75s,65s,43s.

Hero = 8.3%
BB = 3.7%
Villain = 88%

Eeegah · #7 09-08-2005, 03:07 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Pokerstove:

Hero = AA.
BB = AA-QQ.
Villain = 77-55,76s-75s,65s,43s.

Hero = 8.3%
BB = 3.7%
Villain = 88%

[/ QUOTE ]

And BB is giving no indication that he realizes he's screwed; we might be paying four bets here. Muck it and snort some coke to cheer up.

MATT111 · #8 09-08-2005, 09:35 AM

I do not see a turn fold. Although a flopped set is UTGs most likely hand I am not over 90% sure (there`s a 5% chance we catch an A on the river. Even with the
threat of getting 3-bet I think folding is terrible here.

Edit: Do you really think we can reduce villains hands to those stated above. I disagree.

jrz1972 · #9 09-08-2005, 09:39 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I do not see a turn fold. Although a flopped set is UTGs most likely hand I am not over 90% sure (there`s a 5% chance we catch an A on the river. Even with the
threat of getting 3-bet I think folding is terrible here.

[/ QUOTE ]

If UTG+1 is sentient, he knows that BB has an overpair. His betting/raising tells you he can beat BB's overpair, which means he's also beating YOUR overpair. You're way behind anything besides two pair, which is probably the least likely holding for villain.

I'm not going to sit here and say I would never call this down out of frustration, but it's actually a pretty easy fold once you think about what's going on.

MATT111 · #10 09-08-2005, 09:49 AM

Do you think somebody that you find is capable of calling 3 bets cold with 76s-75s,65s,43s is not capable of playing hands like aa-88 even a6 like this?