Quantifying the rake increase

[QUADS4444]

I have seen much discussion about the new rake increase on 6 Max tables but I haven't seen a good attempt to quantify the increase.

So let me throw out some ballpark figures that you guys with extensive data can tweak to get closer to the true numbers. I'm going to make the following assumptions:

The game is 10/20 limit 6 max.
Hands per hour 100.
Number of hands that will be subject to new rake ..30 hands. I assume the game is 5 handed about 1/3 of the time. Rake is $2 when 5 handed. And I further assume that of the remaining hands, only about half are subject to the higher rake.
Extra cost to table about $30.
Costs per player $30/6 = $5

Now if a grinder is making 1BB/100, that is $20 an hour. After the extra $5, the grinder is now making $15 an hour. That is a significant cut in win rate.

Keep in mind that very few people do better than 1BB/100. I would guess that less that 10% of the winners are over 1BB/100. The other 90% are between 0BB/100 and 1BB/100.

The average .5BB/100 winning player will see his win rate cut in half, from $10 an hour to $5 an hour. It is near the point where it is really not worth playing anymore.

Having said that, it is true that most players play for the entertainment regardless of whether they win or lose. So these guys will play anyway.

But there are many breakeven players who view poker as FREE entertainment. If it starts costing these breakeven players $5 an hour for their entertainment, many might stop playing or reduce their hours.

[sthief09]

most breakeven players (1) think they're much better than breakeven, and (2) are breakeven players so it'll take them tons and tons of hands to realize they're breaking even.

the variance in the game is so big that the increase in the rake will probably be unnoticeable to most people, especially the casual player

[ISF]

its actually much worse then this. I looked at a rakeback site to see how much I got back over weekend, and where I used to get back like 6.7$ per 100 hands at 25% now I get about 9.2 back. So the total rake increased by about 10$ per 100 hands
with the site getting about 7.5 of that at at 25% rake back.

[Danenania]

Based on rakeback info, total rake per 100 hands went from 28.90 to 34.50 at 10/20. That is with 15k and 9k samples respectively.

Total of 0.28bb/100 hands. Ouch.

[QUADS4444]

You used to get $6.70 on a 25% rakeback. That is a full rake of $26.80 per person or $160.80 per table.

Now you get back $9.20 on a 25% rakeback. That is a full rake of $36.80 per person or $220.80 per table.

An increase of $10 per person. WOW. That is high. A grinder who was making .5BB/100 will now be making NOTHING instead of his usual $10 an hour.