Do I have Fold Equity Here at 100NL 6max

[jjb108]

Following hand came up at the end of my session. I recently moved up to 100NL 6 Max. I have an hour at the table with the villian who has shown down 3 hands. I beat him recently when my KQs turns a K vs his A9s. He bets turn and river 3/4 pot here. I call it down of course. I have played no big pots nor been all-in at this table. I have been stealing alot as the table has two players including villian who are VPIP < 25 and 1 less than 20.

Here is hand. Fold preflop is a clear option here UTG (hey, I'm tired and its a passive table)

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Button ($47)
SB ($81.15)
BB ($117.10)
Hero ($126.45)
MP ($224.78)
CO ($50.90)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.50.
Hero calls $1, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $4</font>, Hero calls $4.

I have position, call is reasonable.

Flop: ($10.50) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $7</font>, Hero calls $7.

I call here to take the pot on weakness on the turn. I may be ahead. He bluffed at pot in my earlier hand with him on both turn and river. But he could have AT - AK and AXs as well. I could pick up a good draw on the turn.

Turn: ($24.50) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $15</font>,

Hero ... raises ~pot here to take it down and fold AQ/AJ or any other garbage like AXs. I have a great draw and I read some where (Fimbul post) I need to play these aggresively.

Do I have the fold equity with a pot size raise. I have about 45% pot equity so a raise is +EV if I get a fold even a small percentage of the time.

Do I have it...
Will the average 6 max nit lay down TP average kicker to my bet on this draw heavy board.

Will the average 6 max player lay this down.

If he doesn't have the A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] can he lay down AK as well here?

Full table I think I just call this. Should this play be made at a full table as well?

[amoeba]

I would lay AK down here becase flop is fairly drawless and it doesn't make sense for you to raise the turn.

you have to either be completely bluffing or you have a set in my mind and I err on the side of caution as the number of people who bluff on complete air like this is few.

[Finite_Risk]

I like pushing this a bit, both 6max and full ring. He might not give you credit for a flush if it hits since you raised before - If he stays in, I don't care too much cuz, as you said, you have a bunch of pot equity anyway. This is a great spot to have a bunch of money in the pot

[yvesaint]

I don't think the average player lays down AK/AQ simply because they just don't see a set when it hits them. Any player with a brain, however, probably sees a set, or some weird turned two-pair. I think this is exactly how I'd play 77 against a known donk, however.

[Finite_Risk]

If he just calls here and flush hits, does he get paid off on the river by a non-flush? What would villian put him on? A bunch of people, rightly or wrongly, think people are drawing all the time so when a flush card hits they shut down (part of what makes bluffing scare cards sometimes profitable)

[IamLeach]

Against a good /thinking player, I,like this play because it looks like a set or two pair. However Whe I actually DO have a set or two pair here I ussually get paid because most Donks out there don't see it comming.

[FlyingStart]

I like your raise because it may very well fold him out, I think maybe nearly as often as when you push. And if he calls, you have the opportunity to fold if you miss and to charge him the rest of his stack if you hit (by the time he calls your raise he's pretty much potcommited)

I guess it's a question of how much you have to bet to convince villain that you have him beat..

[jjb108]

I think a push screams semi-bluff. A pot sized bet shows strength, pot commitment to a reraise push if I am semibluffing so I like it the best. I'd prefer to win it now vs. whiff on the river and have to decide whether to bluff at it representing a set. If called here, my opponent either has the set AK/AQ or doesn't have a clue what I am representing and won't fold to a river bet. My opponent has no fold equity with my pot sized bet.

[beset7]

These moves feel great when they work, but the amount of FE you have is going to directly correspond to the specific read you have on the player. I routinely make raises like this playing full ring but it's been more experience at 6max that I get called down a lot more often. Whats the villains WTSD? That might be worth looking at, or just thinking about in a general sense if you aren't a stats person if you are going to make plays like this: how tight does villain play the turn?

[jjb108]

WTSD is 22% so I'm good there. I thought he would lay it down given I beat him previously heads up with a solid hand.

I agree with the 6 max calling station TP any kicker factor. However, here I think I have a good enough read.