The Gamble - Hypothetical Coin Flip Situation

[Tailgunner]

I'm curious to see how poker personalities would respond to a difficult decision. Put yourself in this situation and let me know how you would react:

Finding yourself in a desperate financial situation you realize the only chance you have to break free in time is to risk your life savings in a high stakes NLHE tournament. Somehow you manage to make it to the end and find yourself heads-up in this final hand.

Both you and your opponent are on equal stacks and you are all-in on the turn. You turn over your hands and discover you both hold AKs on a ragged board containing two of each of your suits. Your opponent offers you a chop, and your fate is now in your hands.

Lets assume that for some wacky reason there are only two suits in the deck on this hand (well, that explains why the board is so convenient, but we'll also assume there's nothing unusual about this) to leave you in a true 50% gamble... the river is going to make a flush for one or the other of you.

If you risk it and win, you're set for life. Second place pays nothing.. if you risk it and lose, you're devastated with no hope of recovery. If you split the pot (we'll also assume there is no rake, toke or other loss) you walk away with your original stake. Your opponent also graciously offers you a rematch any time you choose. This still leaves you hurting, but not quite crippled, and you figure you can muddle along with that if you have to. Left with the choice of risking everything on an all or nothing gamble or taking the out hoping to be in a more advantageous position next time:

[Mr. Curious]

How do we walk away with only our original stake if it was a tournament and we got down to the final two?

Anyways, I would chop it and wait for a time when I had an advantage. Life ruin is not worth a coin flip, though you must have something going on to have asked this question in the first place. Unless you just watched Rounders...

[Tailgunner]

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How do we walk away with only our original stake if it was a tournament and we got down to the final two?


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The magic of hypotheticals [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

I didn't want to spend all day trying to figure out a realistic way this could occur. Activate a time-travel device for all I care, just assume that you can escape the hand no better or worse than when you went in.


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Unless you just watched Rounders...

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I've seen Rounders lots of times over the years. Great flick, but I want to know what real players think about the scenario. Risk it all or play it safe. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

"You can't lose what you don't put in the middle, but you can't win much either."

[Tailgunner]

I'd already made my decision before I threw this together, so it's mostly a matter of curiosity on my part (I'll explain the impetus later.) Looks like we have a couple votes to go for it so far. Anyone care to comment? Is it just the desire to gamble, or is there another reason? For those who chop, what is your primary factor? Risk-aversion? Responsibility?

[BigDukeSix]

As you are only in this situation as part of a desperate attempt to break free from financial difficulties, you play the hand.

[Tailgunner]

So even though you know your skills give you a good shot at improving the odds if you start over, you prefer to take the even risk now instead of gambling on an unknown risk in the future.. even though you know failure would be far more brutal than break-even?

[wdeadwyler]

If you are better than your opponent you should be happy to chop here and outplay him for the rest of the tourney. i think this is a no brainer.

[Tailgunner]

Well, since we're talking about a dead even situation we should probably assume that you and your opponent are of equal calibre. Luck of the draw will pretty much dictate whether you are in a better position next time, so there's an element of uncertainty in taking the "safe" path. Essentially you are postponing and destabilizing the risk. Are you willing to take the balanced chance now at guaranteed dead even, or do you surrender that state and choose the risk of unknown, but possibly better, odds?

Well, given that I entered a tournament that I absolutely needed to place first in to have any semblance of success, and given that my odds of winning the tournament at the start were undoubtedly much less than 50%, I would have to take my 50% chance and hope it works out.

[callydrias]

Chop, take your stake back, buy some clothes, and get a f'n job.