Omaha HL: Flopping 2 pair and sets

[tvdad]

What is the general strategy for when you flop top 2 pair or a set in Omaha HL/8? I have lost such a high percentage of these hands to straights and flushes, I must be doing something wrong. I always thought you had to come out betting these hands, but it's becoming clear to me that people are much more apt to chase in Omaha HL than in Hold em, especially if they have a low draw. Should I be checking my 2 pair and set when there are straight and flush draws on the board? That seems to contradict common sense, but that's why I'm here asking the question.

Here's an example. I have AAKJ rainbow and the flop comes Ah4s3h. I don't know what to do here. In low limit and tournament Omaha HL, I'm probably up against 5-6 opponents. I'm going for half the pot maximum, and losing the high is a distinct possibilty unless I pick up the boat.

Here's another one. I have AhQs3h2c and the flop comes As9c2s. Again I'm probably going for half the pot, but anyone on a flush or low draw will call me.

T

[Buzz]

TV Dad - “What is the general strategy for when you flop top 2 pair or a set in Omaha HL/8?”

Your question is difficult to answer since there are a number of different types of flops and also different types of opponents and situations. For example, you could flop the top set when the flop is 6c5c4c. In this case top set is very scary. On the other hand, you could flop top set when the flop is Kc7d2h. In this case, top set is very strong.

“Here's an example. I have AAKJ rainbow and the flop comes Ah4s3h. I don't know what to do here. In low limit and tournament Omaha HL, I'm probably up against 5-6 opponents. I'm going for half the pot maximum, and losing the high is a distinct possibility unless I pick up the boat.”

You don’t have the nuts on the flop here. You easily could be up against an opponent who does have the nuts (25XX). In addition, there is a heart flush draw you don’t have either.

Note that since low is already enabled, you are generally only playing for half the pot. Since you have a set of aces, if you continue to play and the pot becomes large enough, you will probably be stuck in the hand for the duration (because of the size of the pot). You need the board to pair to have a probable winner, but your win will only be for half the pot. The odds against the board pairing before the showdown are 649 to 341, or 1.9 to 1. This is such a common situation that you really should want to remember these odds. (I think of 1.9 to 1 as a bit lower than two to one).

Now let’s answer the question of what you should do in this particular situation.

First, think of the pot as divided in two, because you only expect to get half of it. Next temporarily forget about the money that is already in the pot. Just think about the money you and your opponents are going to contribute to your half of the pot on this (the second) betting round. If you have five opponents, then for each chip you contribute, your opponents will contribute five chips, making a total of six chips contributed by you and your opponents. For every six chips contributed, three of them go into your half of the pot. Thus as long as there are two chips from your opponents matching your one chip and going into your half of the pot, you are getting two to one fresh money odds.

The hand odds are 1.9 to 1 against you and you are getting two to one fresh money odds. Does that seem like a good deal to you or not? I hope it seems like a good deal because....well... it is a good deal. You’re getting better fresh money odds than the hand odds are against you.

But note that when the number of your opponents drops below five, betting is no longer a good deal for you. In that case the hand odds against you are greater than the fresh money odds you’re getting. I wrote above to temporarily forget about the money already in the pot. However, when the number of opponents you have drops below five (for this particular hand/flop - not always) the amount of money already in the pot becomes very important. With less than five opponents, since you’re not getting enough fresh money from your opponents coming into the pot to justify putting in your own money, you have to consider the amount already in the pot. There probably is enough already in the pot, so that combined with what you expect to earn (implied pot odds) if you make your hand, you have odds to call.

Initiating a bet or raise is a bit complicated because when you bet or raise, there are multiple positive effects for you in terms of the effect on your opponents. For example, your opponents may all fold - or, if you are on the button, they may all check to you on the third betting round.

But in the situation you have described, you want at least five opponents who will call your raise in order to raise. Thus if you think by raising you’ll end up with fewer than five opponents calling your raise, then check and limp. Yes, you flopped a set of aces, and that is very, very nice - but only if the board pairs. Unless you’re sure of getting five callers, you’re better off playing passively here. (And I’m considering the positive effects of generally playing aggressively, including possibly knocking out non-nut flush draws and non-nut lows which enhance you chances of possibly scooping).

What it boils down to, is if you’re sure of getting those five callers, with this particular hand/flop (AAKJ-rainbow/Ah4s3h), then you should be jamming. Otherwise you should be hoping to see the next two cards as cheaply as possible. The hold 'em ploy of betting or raising on the second betting round when you have position, so as to have the option of taking a free card on the third betting round simply does not work often enough to use it in Omaha-8. It costs you more money than it saves you - that's my experience at any rate. (Raise from the button on the second betting round and, sure as shootin', somebody is going to bet into you on the third betting round!)

“ Here's another one. I have AhQs3h2c and the flop comes As9c2s. Again I'm probably going for half the pot, but anyone on a flush or low draw will call me.”

Boy oh boy, have I ever been there!! Let me count the ways! Your chances for low are practically shot to Hell and you have top and bottom pair on a flop with a straight draw plus a flush draw. Yuk! Best thing you can do, in my humble opinion, is quietly fold your excellent starting hand gone awry, stand up, and take a break. Aces and deuces as your two pair after the flop will lose more money than it will make for you. I've sure tried to make aces over deuces work - but usually it simply doesn't - and again, you're only playing for half the pot.

Just my opinion.

Buzz

[Big Dave D]

Buzz,

You're getting 2:1 on a 1.9:1 shot and you think this is a good place to jam? If this is a game where 5-6 are taking the flop then its a loose one, so there will be much better spots to put your money in when you are a big favorite, not having a 5% edge and huge variance. In fact if it was capped by the time it got to me I would more than certainly pass becuase it would tell me that (a) the nuts is out (b) the flush draw is out (c) a lot of my pairing cards are out too.

(the second hand is really dependent on number of players, who took the lead and type of players involved.)

Gl

Dave
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[Buzz]

"Buzz,You're getting 2:1 on a 1.9:1 shot and you think this is a good place to jam?"

Hi Dave - Yes. I think you should generally bet when you have the odds in your favor. Maybe "jam" means something different to you than to me. By "jam," I mean you want to try to get as much money into the pot as possible so as to get your opponents to put as much money into the pot as possible. You want customers here, and you don't mind investing more to get them to invest more. But although you have favorable odds to bet and although you have favorable odds to raise, you still have to exercise good judgement. By "jam," I don't mean bet in such a heavy handed way as to drive away your customers.

"If this is a game where 5-6 are taking the flop then its a loose one, so there will be much better spots to put your money in when you are a big favorite, not having a 5% edge and huge variance."

There may be much better spots to put your money, and then again there may not be. If there are such better spots, you should try to get as much money as possible into those spots too. However, there is nothing wrong with a 5% edge. 5% edges are delightful.

If later a 10% edge arises, you should take that too. However, you may be in for a long dry spell before that happens. I have sat in sessions for hours without catching a good hand or favorable situation. I believe you should take your 5% edges where you can find them.

"In fact if it was capped by the time it got to me I would more than certainly pass becuase it would tell me that (a) the nuts is out (b) the flush draw is out (c) a lot of my pairing cards are out too.(the second hand is really dependent on number of players, who took the lead and type of players involved.)"

In the same response, I also wrote, "Unless you’re sure of getting five callers, you’re better off playing passively here." Clearly you have to know your customers and use some common sense when you raise.

Just my opinion. Thanks for yours.

Buzz

[Big Dave D]

Hi Buzz

I'm still not convinced about the value of 5% edges...this is to my mind holdem thinking, but I respect your great contributions on here and the personal help you have given my game, so I'll leave that one :-)

However in this case, unless I've missed something, your calculations are awry too. The odds of 1.9:1 are only true if you can get all your money in on the flop. The truth is that more than likely you will face further bets on the turn - I think this is called reverse implied odds, if my memory of Theory of Poker serves. By my rough and ready calculations, even if you build the pot to the maximum on the flop, you may not get the right price to continue on the turn, again assuming your "perfect" scenario and all five players stay on the turn also. In fact in some scenarios, you don't get the right price even factoring in a few big bets on the river.

Gl

Dave
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[Buzz]

Hi Dave - Excellent points. Let's re-examine the situation.

Suppose you hold AAJKn and the flop is Ah3h4s. The immediate question is, “Does someone have the wheel?” The next question is, “Does someone have the nut heart draw?”

Sometimes you get a clue by knowing your opponents and considering how they bet. Some opponents would tend to slow play a flopped wheel. Depending on the situation, sometimes I will slow play a flopped wheel.

I often (but not always) slow play certain types of hands on the flop. Flopped quads, of course, or flopped aces full. But sometimes (depending on the situation) I’ll also slow play, among other hands, a flopped wheel, especially when I’m not worried about losing half the pot to a possible six-high straight that might become enabled by the turn or river.

When you slow play a good hand, some opponents who are quick to rush to conclusions (1) fail to put you on cards you do have, and (2) tend to put you on cards you don’t have.

My experience is that some opponents tend to bet non-nut hands after flops like Ah3h4s - especially hands like 26XX or heart flush draws - while other opponents tend to slow play the nuts. Then there are others who simply bet the nuts here. (I believe that betting the nuts is generally the best course of action, but mixing up your play is good too). At any rate, after a flop of Ah3h4s, it might be difficult to put an opponent on a hand.

Let’s suppose that five opponents have seen the flop. Temporarily disregarding the betting, what is the chance that one of them was dealt 25XX? I think it’s in the neighborhood of 30% or less.

Anyway - the flop is Ah3h4s, you hold AAJKn, and someone bets. What does it mean?

Partly it depends on how the bettor thinks you (and others who have seen the flop) think - and partly it depends on their position and the situation. While you have to tentatively put someone who bets a flop of Ah3h4s on 25XX, you also have to recognize that a bettor may well have something else, notably a heart flush draw or a non-nut low, but possibly a lower set or even two pair from a missed low (like A3XX). You have to realize that very aggressive players and also desperate players will bet when they don’t have the nuts - and on the second betting round, they will also raise or re-raise without the nuts. Thus, just because you are up against an opponent who is jamming on the second betting round doesn’t mean that opponent necessarily has the nuts.

Yes, someone who bets a flop of Ah3h4s seems to be representing the nuts. However, your flopped set of aces could easily be the best hand at the table, with nobody actually having the 25XX necessary to make the wheel. From the standpoint of an aggressive and knowledgable lead-off bettor, when betting into five opponents who have all seen the flop, there is a greater than two to one chance that none of the five opponents have the necessary two cards to make the wheel, and - if none of them have the wheel - they may all concede the pot.

At any rate - the flop is Ah3h4s, you hold AAJKn, someone bets and there are several callers. What do you do with your set of aces now?

There are two considerations - and they are in opposition to each other.

(1) If nobody has flopped the wheel, and if you can shake off the low draws, then you have a chance for a scooper. And if you can also shake off the straight and flush draws, you have an increased chance of winning for high because your unimproved set of aces might hold up even though the third flush card or another straight enabling card appears on the river. Thus you can greatly increase your chances of scooping, and also winning for high, by limiting the field. Honestly, however, this is not a very realistic hope, at least against my normal opponents.

(2) If the board pairs, although quads would be the nuts, against five opponents who saw the flop, your aces full are roughly 96% or 97% certain of winning the high half of the pot (and that’s also considering the possibility of a low straight flush after this particular flop, with the board also pairing). With aces full, you would want as many opponents as possible, even those who might make the quads, because usually they won't (odds roughly twenty to one against).
Now back to TV Dad's original post. I answered that post on the basis of having five opponents who would be expected to stay in the hand.

However, honestly, five of my normal opponents would not stay in the hand after a flop of Ah3h4s. There might be three at the most. Thus jamming on the second betting round or not when holding two of the aces with five opponents who would be calling is a moot point, at least for me. That simply isn’t going to realistically happen, at least in the normal games in which I play, tournament or not. There simply won’t realistically be that many fish at the table. And therefore, I’m simply not going to have odds to initiate a bet or raise when holding AAJKn after a flop of Ah3h4s. Thus a bet or raise with AAJKn after a flop of Ah3h4s, if done at all, would be for a different tactical purpose. If, for example, the betting on the second betting round went bet, fold, fold, fold, fold, I might well raise from last position. Then there are multiple possibilities after that.

I appreciate your kind words, Dave, and also respect your point of view. However, regarding pushing a 5% edge, I’m afraid we may remain on opposite sides of the fence. I firmly believe that betting when you have a 5% edge is playing a solid, aggressive game. Not doing so is simply being too easy on your opponents.

Lastly, when actually considering whether I had odds to raise (a drawing hand) or not on the second betting round, I would compare the number of opponents expected to call with my chances of making my hand on the turn only, and not also the river. Then if I missed, meaning basically I lost the bet from the second betting round, the third betting round would involve another consideration. I would do that because realistically, I would expect some opponents might generally fold after the turn - just as you imply. In using odds for making the full house on either the turn or the river, I was trying to answer a hypothetical "what if" question for TV Dad. (and, in looking over my math, I should have included the possibility of a non-flushing broadway with TV Dad's hand and this flop - doesn't amount to much, but does make the hand odds a bit better for TV Dad, 1.84 to 1 against).

I do appreciate your input, Dave. Thanks.

Just my opinion.

Buzz

[ACPlayer]

5% edges are very nice. If only I could make bets with that edge all day long.

Remember that the casinos make a lot of money on roulette where they have just over a 5% edge.

[tvdad]

Thanks for all the tips. I know it's impossible to give specific advice without knowing the table situation, but I appreciate the discussion on playing 2 pair and sets.

I've been playing Omaha HL for about 9 months now, and I've gotten pretty good at it. It took me a while to realize that it's a game of drawing to the nuts, and maybe now it has finally sunk in that what may be the nuts on the flop will often not be the nuts by the river (as opposed to hold em where you often know the nuts right there on the flop.)

T

[Buzz]

TV Dad - "Thanks for all the tips."

For my part in the discussion you're welcome. I'm sure Chaos, Dave, and Don (who all offered excellent tips) feel the same.

"what may be the nuts on the flop will often not be the nuts by the river (as opposed to hold em where you often know the nuts right there on the flop.)"

I think that is true for flopped straights more than anything else. Better straights or flushes or the dreaded board pair often become possible on the turn or river. How to play a flopped straight depends on the situation. Often, if I think aggressive play will not serve to limit the field, I'll just play a flopped very passively while at other times more aggressive play seems indicated.

Ironically, while a flopped straight is vulnerable to a board pair, flopped top-set and flopped top-two-pair are very vulnerable to straights made on the turn and river. Therefore (assuming a straight or flush is not already possible) I'll almost always play flopped top-set and flopped top-two-pair very aggressively.

Note that because of opening hand selection, unless in the blind, a very-tight player is probably neither going to have a flopped set of middle cards, nor a have flopped middle cards top-two-pair. In other words, if the flop is 982, there is hardly any way a very-tight player can have a flopped top set or top-two-pair. On the other hand, if the flop is KJ2, a very-tight player might well have the flopped top set or top-two-pair - and probably with re-draws.

Just my opinion.

Buzz

[chaos]

As Buzz said a lot depends on the situation.

Some things to consider is a made low possible? Is a made straight or flush possible? If so you may be the person drawing.

Which is your set or two pair. When playing a weak set or two pair, you can run into another sligthly better hand. This gets very expensive when you do make your full house and your opponent makes a bigger full house.

For example, in your second hand you have Aces up deuces. If an opponent has Aces up 9s and another Ace comes you are in big trouble.

If the board is not too scary you may be able to continue with top two pair. Top and bottom pair is more marginal and bottom two pair is rarely worth playing. The same goes for sets - the higher the better.

You always have to worry about an overcard on the turn or river giving one of your opponents the lead. If your set is As or Ks you have less to worry about than if your set is lower. I think a pair in your hand lower than 10s does more harm than good.