quiz

[mike l.]

assume a mid limit game, not generally tough or tricky, several bad players and a few okay ones. your table image is of someone playing fairly tight, but have been caught bluffing the turn/river a couple times. you have QQ in the cutoff. 4 people limp to you, you raise, big blind calls, limpers call, 6 of you see the flop.

flop: 9s5h4d. bb checks, utg bets, 2 people call, you raise, bb calls two cold, rest call. the bb is a player you dont know, but he is an old man w/ a baseball cap and he seems to be playing on the weak tight side. however this is far from a certain read, it's just your initial impression from his first 15-20 minutes at the table w/ you. the reason this matters is:

the turn is a the 8s and the bb comes out betting. there are 3 callers to you. what's your play now?

please rank your decision like this: (raise XX%/call XX%/fold XX%). for instance if you think a raise is clearly correct, a fold horrible, and a call acceptable and have reasoning behind your rankings you might say: (raise 80%/call 17%/fold 3%).

looking forward to everyone's educated responses.

[Tyler Durden]

It looks like the geriatric hit his open ender. With all these callers, it makes it a sticky situation. My fold/call/raise% would be 80%/20%/0%.

[Tommy Angelo]

I hate questions with numbers in the answer but okay since it's you.

Raise: 0.0001 %

Fold: O.0002 %

Call: 99%

Other: You'll have to figure it out. I lost track.

The main thing is - as the math proves - that folding is clearly better than raising.

Seriously, I really would call pretty much every time and I do think raising is the worst choice.

Tommy

[David Steele]

You wrote:
if you think a raise is clearly correct, a fold horrible, and a call acceptable and have reasoning behind your rankings you might say: (raise 80%/call 17%/fold 3%).


Granted there are some common situations where it is correct to mix up your play, however if the raise is "clearly correct" why not do it 100 percent of the time? Even more, why fold a few times if the fold is "horrible"?

D.

[mike l.]

i geuss a better way to say it would be with 100% total being the range how would you rate the three options. so i guess it doesnt make a lot of sense. a better way to say it would be rate 0-10 your preference of raise, call, or fold.

do you have an answer btw?

[Tyler Durden]

Doesn't it look like you're beaten by the straight, and are drawing dead?

[J.A.Sucker]

When an unsophisticated opponent bets out when the board brings the 2nd of a suit, it often means that he picked up some sort of a draw to go along with some other sort of a draw or a pair that he has. This is a common better pattern. I think that you shouldn't fold here, nor should you like your hand particularly much. On a 100 point scale, then my decisions are:

Call: 99.99
Fold: 0.01
Raise: 0

Though, the relative goodness of decisions is probably more like:

Call: 40
Fold: 35
Raise: 25

These are just my opinions, but I'm Just Another Sucker.

[Bubmack]

lol - you guys are giving Grandpa way too much respect. He could be betting out top pair, since he might be worried about possible str8 draws and flush draws from the other limpers and does not believe your represented overpair. I think calling is the obvious choice, but would prefer a raise over a fold.

Call 75%
Raise 15%
Fold 10%

Bubs

[mike l.]

"When an unsophisticated opponent bets out"

first of all i dont know if that's what this opponent is. i mean, what i said was that suspected he might be weak-tight from the little i had seen. that would mean he is sophisticated at least in the sense that he knows to play tight.

secondly, i dont think what you say is true. betting a draw that just improved to a better draw into preflop and flop strength in a multiway pot can be sophisticated. it is both a semibluff and a bet for value (trapping players in between bb and raiser and tying them to pot even more against big draws). i agree there are some losing players (dynasty has talked a lot about this in the games he plays in) who persistently like to bet the turn when they pick up a flush draw, but since so many players are losing players at least some of them do some things right sometimes.

[Tim W.]

mike l.
Call - 80%
Fold - 20%
Raise - 0%

I would probably call this.