Four Handed at Final Table

[RyanR]

B+M No Limit Tourney. Four players are left, with a top heavy payout; 50% 30% 20%. Approximately 25,000 chips in play. Two large stacks with about 9,000 each, another stack with about 3,000, and myself with 3,800.

I'm in the BB with blinds at 500-1000. The other small stack folds utg and the button moves all in. The button is a friend of mine who I play with regularly. My read is that he'll make this move with medium/smaller pair, almost any 2 paint cards and just about Aces down to about A7. Small blind obviously folds and I turn my cards face up one at a time to try and get a read.

The cards I flip up are a King and a Queen of different suits. I can't pick up any read on the button and deliberate for a few minutes.

What's your play and why? I'll list my play and reasoning behind it very soon.

Thanks in advance,
Ryan R.

[RyanR]

Okay if my math is right, I'm getting 3800 + 1000 + 500 = 5,300 to my 2,800. My math at the table was almost 2 to 1 and now I see its 1.89 to 1. With the range of hands I put him on I'm about even with the smaller pairs, small dog against Ax and only dominated by QQ+ and AK, AQ. Also, I would be favored over a hand like KJ or JQ. Using some quick Bayes-ish calculations I decided it was pretty close but that I probably had a mathematical call.

If only it was that easy. If I make the laydown here, UTG has to take, and be crippled by, the blinds in the next two hands. I'll have 2800 left before posting the SB and can probably find a way to squeak into third place. However, If I call and double up, I'll have 8100 TC and be in a good place to make a run for first.

Results: I make the call and he turns over AKo, ouch. Flop comes 3 J Q and he gets no help on turn or river so I double up. ( even with all this math and good play crap you still need luck! ) I go on to split first place.

Looking back, I may have underestimated his all in hands. With a semi-strong hand he may only made a standard 3x-3.5x raise so as to not risk his whole stack against the large stacked SB. Any input anyone has would be much appreciated, especially if my analysis or play is flawed in any way.

Thanks in advance,
Ryan R.

[Hung]

I wouldn't play. Even if it's 50/50 I'd muck. You have a good chance of getting 3rd place. Why throw it away? Wait for a better hand. You still have time.
And sometimes you just need luck. If you're unlucky you'll even lose with AA. That's why a big stack always has a little edge. He's not afraid of going broke. He can put you all-in with a slightly worse hand. You can't even call with small pocketpair against his AK. Because a coinflip is too dangerous. If you think you're better, you should avoid to call all-in. That's what I read in Sklansky's book [img]/forums/images/icons/laugh.gif[/img] [img]/forums/images/icons/laugh.gif[/img]

[MikeyEdge]

I would probably have called. There is a good chance that the button is on a straight steal. More likely I would have put him on A-x, and you are about even against him. If you fold you have 2,800, and have to put up 500 for the SB, then you have 2,300 and the small stacked button will probably move all-in with most hands. Then you are stuck trying to double up with 2,300. You would be forced to go all-in within the next 3 hands anyway with the blinds so high.

I guess it really depends on if you want to win this tournament or not. If you have given up and want to just try to outlast the other small stack, then you could fold, but its still no guarantee that you will pick-up 3rd.

[Bubmack]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr />
More likely I would have put him on A-x, and you are about even against him.

[/ QUOTE ]


He would actually be about a 58 - 42 Dog:

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=14519
pokenum -h ah 2d - kh qd
Holdem Hi: 1712304 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
2d Ah 985650 57.56 716504 41.84 10150 0.59 0.579
Qd Kh 716504 41.84 985650 57.56 10150 0.59 0.421


So given that you are a small dog to any ace and most pairs...and are dominated by AA, KK, QQ, AK, AQ but also dominate KJ, KT, QJ. Also, you are a nice favorite over the "any paint" hands that you described. I think this is a clear call. If you win, you are almost certainly in the money and have placed yourself in excellent position to win the tourney. If you fold your a dog to place in the money at all.

So Call

Bubs

[Moose]

Exposing your hand with action pending is grounds for having your hand declared immediately dead in most casinos. Some have allowed wiggle room heads up but it's just safer to not do it, and truth be told, it's seen as a little bit tacky these days.

M.

[Ignatius]

I'd tend to move in here. You're getting about 2:1 and even with your rather pessimistic read of the button, you should not be worse than a 4:5 dog. (Against a typical opponent, I'd assume that you're rather even money if not a favorite.) Given the payout-structure, this is enough of an overlay to make up for the risk of dropping out, also b/c if you win, you will enjoy position on the remaining big stack.

[Ignatius]

There's a huge difference between 22 and KQ in this spot, esp. given Ryan's read that the button would move in on any pair, any two face but only on A7 and above. While there are only 36 comb. (AA-QQ, AK, AQ) to domiate KQ, which is for 60% made up for by the 24 comb. (KJ, QJ) dominated by KQ, 22 is dominated by any pair (72. comb) and wouldn't dominate any hand the button would raise with.
.
Against a more agressive opponent who, as a chip leader on the bubble, would also steal from the button with any two broadway cards and some lesser hands (like medium suited connectors and medium suited kings), KQ would actually be a favorite.