LO8 hand, river decision

Sean D · #1 08-30-2005, 01:32 AM

BB is a maniac, MP3 has a VPIP of 96%. After the turn and river brick out for me, I don't think I can make an overcall on the river with just an overpair. Also, I thought a turn bet was marginal, but it may have allowed me to check river behind if I miss. Given that I did check the turn, does that make this a call? Any thoughts appreciated.

Party Poker (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
MP3 calls, Hero raises, BB raises, MP3 calls, Hero raises, BB calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, MP3 calls, Hero raises, BB calls, MP3 calls.

Turn: 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, MP3 checks, Hero checks.

River: 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, MP3 calls, Hero folds.

Burdzthewurd · #2 08-30-2005, 02:00 AM

I'd still lean towards betting the turn but checking isn't awful if BB will checkraise small trips or if MP3 will call with trips all the way down.

River is ok fold to me.

Sean D · #3 08-30-2005, 02:19 AM

I forgot to mention why I thought a turn bet was marginal. With the preflop action, it was likely I was up against another A2 draw. And with the board pairing, my spade outs may no longer be good. Also a turn check may induce a bluff from the aggressive players on the river, but then the worst possible card came off. If MP3 had folded on the river, I think I would have made the call.

Buzz · #4 08-30-2005, 03:06 AM

Sean - I think the pot is too big for you to fold to a bet on the river.

[ QUOTE ]
Also, I thought a turn bet was marginal, but it may have allowed me to check river behind if I miss.

[/ QUOTE ]

With more passive opponents, a turn bet from you might have allowed you to check on the river. But this BB still probably bets the river.

Don't misunderstand - I do think you should have kept up the pressure by betting the turn.

When you check the turn, you pretty well
confirm that you're on a draw.

Put yourself in the shoes of your opponent: What can you want if you're on a draw - another six? Hardly!

Thus if you have a tendency to give up on the river when you miss your draw, the six on the river makes you a target.

It's not so much your failure to bet the turn here that has set you up for a possible bluff on the river as your failure to call on the river on previous occasions. And this fold on the river tends to set you up for possible bluffs on future occasions.

Just my opinion.

Buzz

GooperMC · #5 08-30-2005, 08:37 AM

On the turn I think that it depends on the level. If this was .5/1 I like the turn check because I don't think that players are paying enough attention to notice this and bluff you in the future. Also at .5/1 the free card play doesn’t work very well because players there aren’t smart enough to CR when they hit their hands.

If you are playing higher levels players are paying attention and you are getting more fold equity so then I would bet the turn.

Especially with that turn check there is no way that I fold that river against 2 donks. Most likely you are beat but you are getting around 10:1 (if I did my math right) so I call almost every time. It looks like BB has a missed low draw and I think since MP3 is a calling station he will show you KK or QQ more then 1:10.

chaos · #6 08-30-2005, 08:49 AM

I too think you need to call on the river.

The BB's bet could easily be a bluff after he misses his low or he could be betting his big pocket pair. The caller may have also noticed that the BB was a maniac. He could be calling hoping to beat the bluff with as little as a J in his hand.

The pot is large (12 + 6 = 18 / 2 = 9 +2 = 11 big bets) and will not be split. You only have to win one out of 12 times to break even.

MyTurn2Raise · #7 08-30-2005, 08:42 PM

Buzz,
You should seriously write a book on limit omaha8. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Sean D · #8 08-30-2005, 09:51 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Buzz,
You should seriously write a book on limit omaha8. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

seriously

DeadMoneyOC · #9 08-30-2005, 10:30 PM

Why didnt you bet the turn?

Edit: Yhea...bet the turn for value. That 4 is a pretty darn good card. This may also get you a free showdown on the river. I would call a river bet.

DyessMan89 · #10 08-30-2005, 10:59 PM

The turn bet is indeed marginal, but I think the value of the hand and the wild chance you might take down the pot deserves a lead.

On the river, there is just too much in the pot to really consider folding here. I think your playing way too conservativley if you fold the river here.