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#1
08-29-2005, 10:25 PM
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Weak fold or ok?
Party 3/6, 6-handed. UTG is 34/15/1.6, plays too many hands, but seems decent postflop. Button is a loose passive fish, I don't have stats, but his VPIP must be at least 70.
I'm MP with A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Preflop: UTG calls, I raise, button calls, BB calls, UTG calls. Flop: J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] UTG checks, I bet, button calls, BB folds, UTG raises, I call, button calls. Turn: 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] UTG bets, I fold. 
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#2
08-29-2005, 10:34 PM
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Re: Weak fold or ok?
I doubt you're ahead here, and with a little creative out counting I think maybe you can consider you have 6 outs (maybe). Doesn't seem like you're getting the right odds to call, and I think too often you're already behind.
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#3
08-29-2005, 10:36 PM
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Re: Weak fold or ok?
This is a good flop to not bet. You have two overcards and a gutshot but a flop with both T and J is infinitely likely to hit one or more of your many, many opponents.
The 5 on the turn is not a bad card for you because it gives you more outs against the most likely two-pair hand you might be up against. Assuming someone is on the flush draw, you now have up to 7 outs. The pot's big enough, I peel. /mc
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#4
08-29-2005, 10:41 PM
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Re: Weak fold or ok?
getting 8:1, i think this is a call.
utg would have likely raised JJ or TT preflop. you just cleaned up your aces and kings with the board pairing the fives. i think you're drawing to 10 outs here most of the time.
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#5
08-29-2005, 10:43 PM
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Re: Weak fold or ok?
Ya I discounted a few outs because of hands like AJ, I think you can't really say the full 7 outs. at 6 outs you're just over 10% to hit this right ? So just from a pot odds perspective it's a little thin, I think I count 11 big bets in there, and you need to put in one, but with a guy behind you to act, maybe more then 1. I think it's thin, nobody could really say it's wrong to fold there.
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#6
08-29-2005, 10:44 PM
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Re: Weak fold or ok?
[ QUOTE ]
i think you're drawing to 10 outs here most of the time. [/ QUOTE ] Flush draw requires a discount, as does the fact that you aren't closing the action. /mc
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