What do you do when you are about to make the leap and BOOM?

[LImitPlayer]

Kinda curious what others have done in this situation, or what they would do if this happened to them.

I'm pluggin away at 5-10 SH close to hitting my 100K hand mark and getting ready to move up to the 10-20 SH.

I then proceed to hit my nastiest, most brutal downsing ever, 256 BB. This drops my BB/100 almost .5 points and then puts me under the 2 BB/100 mark.

I told myself I wouldn't move up in limits until I hit 100K hands at each level and had at least A 2BB+/100 winrate for each level. Bankroll is not an issue for moving up.

Do I continue to fight my way out of the downsing at the 5-10 or jump to the 10-20?

Do I need to re-evaluate my game as I am no longer a 2BB/100 winner? Or do I just go the "this is just varience
routine and in another 20K hands I will be back over 2BB/100 hands so just move on?"

I guess my main concern is that I'm going to dig my way out of this one and hit another one in the near future lowering my winrate even further.

At what point do you say I am a proven winner at this level and just move on in the SH games? Since downswings are longer and much nastier than in full ring do I need to play a lot more hands then I would compared to a 10 handed game?

I have read posts from players who say they have has 20k hand breakeven stretches. Does this kind of varience require you to play more hands to get a resonable idea of your winrate?

I understand that it would take millions of hands to determine your true winrate but what is the standard or best guess as to the # of hads played in SH games to determine if you are beating the game?

I am resonably new to SH, before I was playing full ring games on autopilot multitabling.

[TheMetetron]

Move up when you are ready. It's as simple as that.

[billyjex]

who cares what your bb/100 is. 1.8 or 2.2, you are beating the game very healthy and should move up if your bankroll is fine.

i am 1.3 over 80k hands and have pretty much moved up. winrates are overrated. if you can beat 5/10 you can beat 10/20.

[TheMetetron]

Actually, I would be a little concerned about only beating $5/10 for 1.3 and attempting to jump up to $10/20, but that's just me.

[billyjex]

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Actually, I would be a little concerned about only beating $5/10 for 1.3 and attempting to jump up to $10/20, but that's just me.

[/ QUOTE ]

and i'm sure you had a killer winrate when you moved up.

wtf do you want me to do, play a shitload more hands to get that magical number up? i have some tilt issues, and i also played the last 30k hands with no notes as well to get better at reads (ok, i was really lazy after pokeredge ate it and didn't want to datamine.)

to be honest.. i feel i play fine against aggressive opponents. one of my biggest weaknesses is paying off loose passives and not value betting enough. i think i'm pretty good at inducing and picking off bluffs, which i feel become more important at 10/20.

[Warik]

You need to move up when you are ready and not worry about some arbitrary set of numbers. If I had your same standards for moving up I'd be playing $3/$6 instead of $10/$20 and be short several thousand by now.

Yeah, you need 100k hands to "prove" that you're a winner at a certain limit, but just because you can't "prove" something doesn't mean it isn't true. (Think O.J.)

Step 1. Are you a winner?

Step 2. Are you properly bankrolled?

Step 3. Move up.

Repeat when necessary.

[bigwinner]

You just dropped 256BB at $5/$10. I would move up to $10$20 immediately. That way, you only have to win 128 BB to get back to even. If your bankroll supports it, go to even higher limits and you can win it back faster.

[imported_stealthcow]

the best short handed limit poker player i know had a bb/100 of .7 at 3/6 and of 1.2bb/100 at 5/10sh.

you gotta move up when you have the confidence and bankroll to move up. and, you definetly need to have the desire, to push your game to the next level.

[arkady]

uhm...stealth...i did not have 1.2bb/100 at 5/10.

[Danenania]

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uhm...stealth...i did not have 1.2bb/100 at 5/10.

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Me either... I'm confused. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]