3-bet one pair on turn. 20-40

[PokerPrince]

Dynamite 20-40 game with plenty of loose/aggressive fish. Crazy oriental woman on perma-tilt across from me and a player brand new to the game on my right. He's never played poker before and generally plays baccarat for $10000-$20000 per hand. You can tell these red chips mean nothing to him, and if he wasn't so horrible I'de move away from him cause his breath smelled like he licked a camel's armpit. Anyways here comes the hand.

Moderate player raises from EP, EP2 coldcalls, Crazy oriental woman(COW) coldcalls from MP. Johnny Baccarat(JB) reraises from LP. This means doesn't have to be anything special. Could be any pair or anything that makes a '20' in blackjack. Hell, I even saw him reraise on hands that are natural nines in Bacarrat! I am also in LP and decide to cap holding the A [img]/forums/images/icons/spade.gif[/img] K [img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img] . Folded around to original raiser who calls as well as the others.

Flop-J [img]/forums/images/icons/spade.gif[/img] 5 [img]/forums/images/icons/club.gif[/img] 4 [img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img]

Checked around. Just before turn card is dealt COW yells, "Ace!". My preference would be a King but an Ace would do nicely.

Turn-J [img]/forums/images/icons/spade.gif[/img] 5 [img]/forums/images/icons/club.gif[/img] 4 [img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img] A [img]/forums/images/icons/heart.gif[/img]

She must be psychic. EP bets(AK-AQ most likely), EP2 calls, COW raises, JB calls, I make it 3-bets. They all call!

River-J [img]/forums/images/icons/spade.gif[/img] 5 [img]/forums/images/icons/club.gif[/img] 4 [img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img] A [img]/forums/images/icons/heart.gif[/img] 7 [img]/forums/images/icons/club.gif[/img]

Looks pretty brick o'licious to me. All check to me and I decide to value bet my top pair, top kicker.

What does everyone think of that line of play. I 3-bet the turn because I thought I had the best hand AND I thought perhaps, maybe I could get another AK to muck. Not likely, but worth a try. I bet the river for value. Anyone check after alllllll those players coldcalled the turn raising?
Any thoughts are appreciated, results to follow.

PokerPrince

[MHoydilla]

I like the three bet on the turn alot. With the two poor players calling the turn I think the river value bet is a must. I assume though that you lost to aces up because your posting this, but I would have played it the same way.

[PokerPrince]

Nope I think I would have posted this regardless of results. I can't remember the last time I 3-bet expensive street holding a single pair and wanted some to get some feedback. I felt the river bet was needed but with all the turn callers I wondered if a check would have been ok too. It was definately an interesting hand with some interesting results.

PokerPrince

[elysium]

almosy forgot. i like the 3 bet on the turn. that's probably why 2 pair is checking. take the free showdown.

[Lee Jones]

Not only was the river bet not "needed", I think it was a Bad Idea. 15 BB's went in five ways on the turn and you have A Pair. It's bordering on miraculous that you got a free showdown. If you had the best hand, your game was waaaaaaay better than I realized.

Turn action going the way it did, man, I'd check the river with P=1.0.

Regards, Lee

P.S. Added thought: stop obsessing about the bet on the river. You win a pot that size with one pair when 15 BB's went in on the turn, push the dealer any chips you collect on the river - you already got full value.

[pilchard]

Where do you start assessing this hand?

Preflop.
EP1 (moderate player) you would think must have a decent hand to merit his action. EP2 you haven't commented on so I'll assume he too must have a decent holding. COW probably hasn't got a great hand given no raise and JB could have anything.

Flop
Checked round. Everyone expects somebody after them to bet so there could be some big hands out there or nothing at all.

Turn.
EP1 bets, although he too must know that COW has an A. As you say likely holding of AK-AQ, however other possibilities are AJ or even JJ. By betting there (if he knows anything) I feel that he must know he is going to be raised and therefore welcomes it. EP2's holding is a mystery. However, we know there are 11.75 bbs in the pot at this time so he may feel he has the odds to call a gutshot or try and hit a second pair or trips.

COW then raises. She only cold called preflop so her other card could be anything. Two pair is more than possible. JB calls. Still could have anything.

You then decide to raise. In a tough game if you had just hit your top pair top kicker on the turn and the action had gone bet, call, raise, coldcall to you with a board offering no flush draw, only a turned gutshot and a low end straight draw you would have to assume you were behind (probably beaten). However, given the players you are up against and the size of the pot you have a hand you definitely want to show down. I like your raise a lot. You capped the betting preflop and now three bet the turn when an A shows up. Even though a good player will know that AA is extremely unlikely (impossible if that player holds an A and is right in believeing COW has one too), these players probably think that slow playing the flop is the norm and would put you on AA or JJ. There is a slight chance by reraising someone drawing thin may drop out (unlikely I know) but I think it is unlikely you'll get reraised by two pair or even a low set.

The River
You are right that the river looks harmless. Hands behind you on the turn that are now ahead are A7, J7, 77, 75, 74, 68 or 63. However, given the players you are up against these hands are real possibilities. Also, there was a big possibility that you were actually behind on the turn when you reraised.

They all checked to the raiser on the flop and they are doing it again on the river. The great thing about your turn raise was that it gave you a free showdown. I would definitely use it here. In fact, I would go as far to say that whatever the river card had been I'd have checked.

I don't know the results yet and you may have won the hand or split the pot but I know that I'm going to hate being check-raised on the river by these opponents with top pair top kicker.

[PokerPrince]

Very thorough analysis. EP2 plays horribly I forgot to mention that. The only player I felt had a sensible holding was EP, the original preflop raiser.

Are you saying that no matter what the river card, even an Ace or King, you would check behind? Given that there was no cap on the turn and the river being a brick, I didn't expect any fancy moves on 5th street. I decided there was a decent chance I had that best holding(or at least tied) and bet. I was quite confident that I would not get checkraised.

I was thinking as to what I would do on the turn if I got 4-bet by EP or COW. I don't think I would be as scared of EP's rereraise as I would of COW's. I would strongly consider mucking if COW 4-bet as this would surely mean 2-pair/set. She was quite loose and fishy but not entirely stupid. EP being a reasonable player and not overly aggressive would lead me to believe he wouldn't 4-bet with AK. Perhaps a fold might be in order in that situation as well. Thoughts on that?

PokerPrince

[pilchard]

Whilst thinking about my original reply I thought about which river cards I might bet the river with. I think that there is every chance that I am behind on the turn, consequently, any river card that does not improve my hand (the least scary being a 9 and then a 7) I would check down.

An A on the river only moves me ahead of 54, J4 or J5. Given that we are right that COW has an A alarm bells would be ringing firstly because COW could easily of had A's up on the turn and now a house, but more importantly, what was EP1 leading into the field with on the turn if he didn't have an A?

The best river card is clearly a K. OK there is a slight chance someone has QT but that aside, you only have to worry about a set now. God I'm a wuss but I think I'd even check here. Missing river bets can be a major leak and there is no doubt in this situation that worse hands will call but when 4 other players are in for three bets on the turn (even given their lack of knowledge) I think I'd just turn my cards over with top two pair (Excuse me while I wax my legs and apply my makeup).

I too was thinking about what you would do if you were capped on the turn. In real time I think your turn reraise was a great decision (beyond my play making ability). However, I think I would be more scared of a reraise by the EP1 rather than COW. Given that COW shouted for an A you would have to think that she has A's up but you would have the pot odds to draw to your K. However, given that EP1 is unlikely to cap with AK (or possibly AJ) and has at least some hand reading skills, you would have to put him on a set. It would be a tough fold with that pot if EP1 capped.

In simplistic terms, when you bet the river what are you hoping for:
a) that all worse hands will call (some will do but are you up against 4 hands that are worse or equal). Also there is every chance you are up against another AK so will only gain half of the river calls.
b) that any better hands (or equal) will fold (no chance against these opponents - I'd expect any two pair hand or better to call one river bet and against these guys AK will call too)
c) that a better hand will not raise (you seem quite confident that given there was no cap on the turn there would be no raise on the river - however the 7 has brought up additional hands (although unlikely) that will definitely raise.

Looking forward to seeing the results and the weird hands you were up against.

[Rick Nebiolo]

Great Analysis in both your posts above! You have convinced me that it was best to check the river (I was lukewarm on a river bet in my post below - your thinking is deeper and more precise).

I agree that if it gets capped on the turn Prince has to call.

Regards,

Rick

[mike l.]

i would fold if EP caps it because that means he has a set minimum. he has to put you on AA or JJ when you 3 bet the turn so if he comes firing at you again on the turn AK is no good. maybe if he is a world class expert and youre all playing 80-160 or up we could believe he might have AK as well, but not likely. i think EP has AK or AQ given the way he played it.

"I would strongly consider mucking if COW 4-bet as this would surely mean 2-pair/set."

which would be horrid of course. you should call one more turn bet if you have a 3 outer to a river K and it's not close.