TPTK getting CRd big on Flop - $1/2-6max

[vanHelsing]

Opponent is 25/12/2.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) converter

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

BB ($274.69)
UTG ($202.05)
Hero ($200)
CO ($222.30)
Button ($270.40)
SB ($164.74)

Preflop: Hero is MP with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $1.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $8</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, BB calls $6.

Flop: ($17) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $10</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $40</font>, Hero ?

doesn't this CR look somehow suspicous?
Board is quite dry, at least it doesn't look like PFR from MP (me) is drawing to much here. Betsize seems like he wants to win the pot right there. Stats don't look like he is likely to have 2 pair. I didn't have info how he plays his sets usually.
How to continue?

[MINETZ]

looks like your good, unless he has a set, depends a lot on reads, i dont understand why u bet so little on the flop.
Noah

[vanHelsing]

[ QUOTE ]
looks like your good, unless he has a set, depends a lot on reads, i dont understand why u bet so little on the flop.
Noah

[/ QUOTE ]
Because it's quite dry.

[ScottTheFish]

I agree this could easily be someone rasing your suspected cont. bet on a raggy flop.

If you suspect a move, call and see what he does on the turn. Use your position. Raising is no good, he's not calling it with anything we beat.

If he's got balls enough to fire on the turn with something I beat He wins. If he checks the turn I'll bet half or 2/3 pot.

[BobboFitos]

Harry,

the checkraise sure does look suspicious. but you still should fold. Why?

Unless you've been pounding the blinds again and again, picking up these pots when you have absolutely nothing, it's time to give your opponent credit for a hand. his stats suggest he's not playing T7, 75, or T5, so really the decision is "does he have the same hand / a set / JJ+, or is he putting a move on me w/ 89, air, or a worse T?" and the answer is unless you suspect they're playing back at brunt aggression, it will cost you too much to win what is a relatively nothing pot.

[ QUOTE ]
Betsize seems like he wants to win the pot right there.

[/ QUOTE ]

Although this is true, his c/r ensures you will be playing for your stack, which is smart. He wants to play a big pot. Unless you do, (he's a donk; overaggressive; or esp. tricky) you really dont.

if you WERE to play the hand, then I'd just call, as 3betting lets him fold top pair and the only remote draw or the random bluff.

on a non Jack or 6 i'd probably move in after a turn bet, although a case could be made for just calling down too on a non oesd card.

Also, about the above* there are two near certainities in holdem. 1: If a player raises pf, they generally bet the flop and 2: if a player checkraises, they generally bet the next street. So you must ensure you have a turn plan... Calling and folding to a blank is not good. And you dont have outs to catch [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or TT/AA...

[vanHelsing]

Thanks for the replies.

[ QUOTE ]
2: if a player checkraises, they generally bet the next street. So you must ensure you have a turn plan... Calling and folding to a blank is not good.

[/ QUOTE ]
Rob, that was exactly the problem. I couldn't imagine a decent line to take against this opponent, unless he is checking the turn, which seemed unlikely.
So I just folded.
Later I checked my database and found out that he is playing sets in a much slower manner, even on draw heavier boards.

Well, seems like you can't always catch them...

EDIT: and yes, JJ+ are definitely candidates as well.