Canterbury 30/60 Trying to clean up outs

[NLSoldier]

Very good game. One LAG that I've never seen before that is playing very aggressive preflop and on the flop and is causing everyone else to play pretty aggro on the flop as well.

Lag raises UTG+2, Everyone cold calls, Cooper calls in the SB, I call in the BB with Q9o.

Flop is 78T rainbow. Cooper checks, I check (planning to CR the lag), Lag checks, Pat bets, 2 guys call, Cooper CRs, I 3bet, Lag folds, Pat 4bets, others fold, Cooper immediatly calls.

Based on the way Cooper CRed the flop and immediatly called 2 more, I thought it was very likely he had a nine, maybe with a pair, maybe not. I thought Pat had a set or 2 pair, but obviously the flopped straight is a possibility as well.


Turn is a Queen, completing the rainbow. Cooper checks, I bet, hoping Pat will raise and probably get Cooper to fold a nine. I didn't think there was any chance I was ahead, but I did think there was a chance the Q gave me 5 more outs.

So basically I bet, knowing a better hand would raise, in hopes that cooper would fold and I wouldnt have to chop this huge pot if I hit on the river.

Good?

[Nightwish]

There's something I don't get here. I don't know who this Pat is, but it seems that you're already convinced that he has a set or better??? Am I misreading the hand?

[NLSoldier]

Well he definately would have 3bet preflop with an overpair, and probably with AT as well. I am not ruling out 2 pair. Which is why I said I thought 2pair or a set was his most likely hand. What else do you see him 4betting the flop with? Maybe T9, but I am almost positive he wouldnt 4bet with just a nine.

[Justin A]

Did you do the math based on your reads to see how often SB needs to fold to make this correct?

[NLSoldier]

[ QUOTE ]
Did you do the math based on your reads to see how often SB needs to fold to make this correct?

[/ QUOTE ]

Nope, thats what I wanted you guys to do [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[Jeffage]

I think a turn bet is just spewing here. Pat is obviously loaded (a set or straight are pretty much the only hands that make sense) and you have to hit to win. So why bet into a sure raise? I don't think (POTENTIALLY) getting the SB out will clean up enough outs to be worth the extra big bet expense.

Jeff

[NLSoldier]

So the pot has 13BB going into the turn. But pat will bet the turn every time if I check, so that makes it 14BB and I will get at least one bet on the river if I hit, that makes it 15. So I'm spending one extra BB to win and extra 7.5BB when I hit which will be about 1 in 5. So its definately worth it if he has a nine and will fold it every time, but how do I figure out what % of the time this has to be the case for it to be breakeven?

[Justin A]

[ QUOTE ]
So the pot has 13BB going into the turn. But pat will bet the turn every time if I check, so that makes it 14BB and I will get at least one bet on the river if I hit, that makes it 15. So I'm spending one extra BB to win and extra 7.5BB when I hit which will be about 1 in 5. So its definately worth it if he has a nine and will fold it every time, but how do I figure out what % of the time this has to be the case for it to be breakeven?


[/ QUOTE ]

I don't have time to do math, but remember you have to factor in the possibility you're drawing to three outs for a chop with Pat.

[NLSoldier]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So the pot has 13BB going into the turn. But pat will bet the turn every time if I check, so that makes it 14BB and I will get at least one bet on the river if I hit, that makes it 15. So I'm spending one extra BB to win and extra 7.5BB when I hit which will be about 1 in 5. So its definately worth it if he has a nine and will fold it every time, but how do I figure out what % of the time this has to be the case for it to be breakeven?


[/ QUOTE ]

I don't have time to do math, but remember you have to factor in the possibility you're drawing to three outs for a chop with Pat.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah thats a good point.

[sam h]

I don't understand why you think the SB would fold an OESD for two more, especially since by betting out you make your hand look less like another nine.