Some KCL Bet Sizing

[nate1729]

Heads-up at the end of a KCL tournament. I have 34k, villain has 23k. Blinds 400-800, ante 50, you're in the BB with a pat 87.

Villain is... interesting. Has all-in reraised with air before the flop; has stolen and restolen at other times; I've stolen and restolen from him; he's passive after the draw, especially last to act. He's looking to make plays.

Villain makes it 2400. How much do you reraise?

I made it 5600. Pot's 11.3k going into the draw. He draws two. He has 17k and change behind.

What's your bet?

I check raise. If he tries to make plays a lot, he'll try to shoot thru you with an allin and you can snap off the bluff. If he bets less, raise about 3x his bet to keep him in.

[lucas9000]

[ QUOTE ]
I check raise. If he tries to make plays a lot, he'll try to shoot thru you with an allin and you can snap off the bluff. If he bets less, raise about 3x his bet to keep him in.

[/ QUOTE ]

do you really think villain would make a play at this pot? he was reraised pre-draw, the reraiser stood pat, and then the villain drew two. villain has to think that the hero has a good hand, and likely one he'll commit to. also, the chances that villain made a great hand drawing 2 aren't very good, so when he makes a play it will look exactly like he's making a play. therefore, i wouldn't count on villain makign a play at this.

on the other hand, if hero bets out, that makes it too easy for villain to just fold. whereas if hero checks, villain might think that his only shot is to make a play at the pot.

i guess i'm just rambling, and probably also revealing my ignorance.

[nate1729]

That's part of why I asked the question; this situation is strange. Heads-up KCL is not exactly studied as intensely as heads-up LHE; furthermore, being OOP with a pat hand against a two-card draw is tricky, especially when your opponent is inclined to check behind.

One way to frame this question: what does a bet by me mean? A check?

[nate1729]

What if your opponent is, despite his tendency to try to make plays, fairly inclined to check when he can close the action?

I know that in this game it's almost internally inconsistent to describe an opponent this way (there are only two betting rounds... if he doesn't make moves in this common situation when *does* he make moves?) but I mean more that he's aggro predraw and is willing to resteal and try to play back and make calls and bet out first to act after the draw and stuff.

Anyway, I guess I'm asking a bunch of leading questions here. I'm not saying that checkraising is always wrong, but let me reframe:

Suppose you decided to bet postdraw. How much?

I'd overbet the pot. This looks like a snow or bluff, because you'd bet small if you were pat to invite a call. You'll get more value if he "snaps of a bluff" than if you bet smallish.

[nate1729]

The pot's 11k+ and he has 17k or so. Push?

[lucas9000]

i'd bet 7 or 8k. i doubt he's calling an all in unless he made a hand, and drawing 2 that's unlikely. based on your stack size, a bet of 7 or 8k looks like a steal, because it's enough to really cripple him if he just calls. it's also enough that if he's an idiot he might call thinking "well hey if i'm wrong i'll have 10k left." less than 7k and i think it looks like a value bet, and more than 8k you might as well put him all in, which is probably just going to blow him out of the pot.

[nate1729]

Seems sensible to me.

Do you recommend that against a strong opponent, a decent but wild opponent, a total fish, or some subset of these?

[nate1729]

I pushed; he thought and called with a Q9.

I hope this was something more than a brag post. I meant to think about a few things:

-It's important not to be beholden to the pot-sized bet. In particular, I think there's not much here that's calling 11.5k that isn't calling 17k (I mean, you only need to get called like 2/3 as much.)

-What do you do when you're out of position and will usually be much stronger than your opponent?