Heads up with big lead...how low do you go?

[tipperdog]

Heads up vs. good player. Usual payout structure (50-30-20). You have just won a big hand and opened up a 7,000:1,000 chip lead. You are SB and blinds are 250/500, so after posting, your opponent has only T500 left.

You are dealt 52o. What's your play? If it's anything other than all-in, what's the minimum hand you push with in this situation?

[Ixnert]

Push, and it's not even close.

You have to push this hand. If you lose you can be a little more picky for a few hands.

[unreal_nh]

push with anything

[YourFoxyGrandma]

I'm actually pretty curious about this. Those saying it's an easy push, why?

The way I see it the math works out almost even (1.67:1 against and 750:1250). If you fold he now gets to dictate the action and will very likely push next hand which means increased stack size against your random hand. Even assuming the next hand is a coin flip he has more chips from this hand giving him the advantage. The math on this hand was even but he came out ahead so when you combine the EV of the two hands he would come out ahead if you didn't call on this hand.

Does this make any sense? I am just now having my first cup of coffee.

[YourFoxyGrandma]

You're right. This is as simple as a pot odds calculaiton.

[tipperdog]

[ QUOTE ]
The way I see it the math works out almost even (1.67:1 against and 750:1250). If you fold he now gets to dictate the action and will very likely push next hand which means increased stack size against your random hand. Even assuming the next hand is a coin flip he has more chips from this hand giving him the advantage. The math on this hand was even but he came out ahead so when you combine the EV of the two hands he would come out ahead if you didn't call on this hand.

Does this make any sense? I am just now having my first cup of coffee.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, I thought it was pretty close, for the exact reasons Andy_fish is stating (I think). On this hand, it's just about correct odds (3:2 pot odds; 3:2 dog vs. unpaired overcards). However, if I fold here, villan is nearly certain to push on the next hand from the SB. However, with me in the BB, I'll be getting 2.2:1 pot odds to call his push, giving me an odds premium with any 2 (also, my next "any 2" is likely to be better than this junk hand).

So, I mucked my 52o and then picked up 93 [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img] in the BB. As expected, villan pushed all-in and I called (and lost). 2 coin flips and 1 bad beat later, I placed 2nd.

[ZeroPointMachine]

If hero puts 750 into a 1250 pot(assuming zero FE) that's 37.5%. 52o doesn't have 37.5% pot equity against a random hand.

If hero folds villian has 1250. Next hand villian either folds (not likely) and were right where we started or pushes. If he pushes were putting 750 into a 1750 pot(30%). Every hand has >30% pot equity against a random hand.

54o 38.2
64o 38.0
52s 37.8
62s 37.7
83o 37.5
82o 36.8
42s 36.8
73o 36.6
53o 36.3
63o 36.1
32s 36.0
43o 35.1
72o 34.6
52o 34.3
62o 34.1
42o 33.2
32o 32.3

I fold this and play the next hand. I don't think the worst case of doubling villians 1250 is much worse than doubling his 1000.