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#1
08-17-2005, 12:48 PM
 VivaLaViking Member Join Date: Jul 2005 Posts: 97

Assume the flop leaves you with 10 outs.

[1 - (37/47)(36/46)] * 100 ~= 38.4%
(10 * 100) / 47 ~= 21.28%
After not improving on the turn your probability of improving in the river is:
(10 * 100) / 46 ~= 21.74%

Why does this math indicate that the probabilty increased for the river draw over the turn draw?
#2
08-17-2005, 01:00 PM
 mosdef Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Toronto Posts: 168
Re: Have I made a mistake?

because you've calculated the probability GIVEN THAT you missed on the turn, not the probability of hitting your card on the river regardless what happened on the turn.
#3
08-17-2005, 01:21 PM
 VivaLaViking Member Join Date: Jul 2005 Posts: 97
Re: Have I made a mistake?

Thanks, so the math looks OK to you?
#4
08-17-2005, 01:22 PM
 Jacob_Gilliam Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2005 Posts: 196
Re: Have I made a mistake?

there's one less card in the deck on the river, so the odds of you hitting increases slightly.
#5
08-17-2005, 01:29 PM
 LetYouDown Senior Member Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: Sharing a smoke w/negativity Posts: 524
Re: Have I made a mistake?

Odds of catching at least one of your 10 outs by the river:

1 - C(37,2)/C(47,2) = ~38.4%
#6
08-17-2005, 02:08 PM
 VivaLaViking Member Join Date: Jul 2005 Posts: 97
Re: Have I made a mistake?

Thanks All. For a moment I thought I was crazy. Wait a minute, it may be correct but that doesn't mean I'm sane.

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