Fold KK on rag flop - am I insane????

[MrMonkey]

15/30 party poker

Party Poker (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. </font>.
5 folds, CO calls, Button raises, Hero raises, SB folds, BB calls, CO calls, Button calls.

Flop: 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
(4 players)</font>
Hero bets, BB calls, CO calls, Button raises, Hero calls, BB raises, CO folds, Button raises, Hero folds (?!), BB calls.

My thinking here when button made first raise was that button's raise is dangerous cause it's not a knockout raise, it must be for value or free card, since I felt in danger here and against probably str8 and flush draws I decided to wait for the turn where I was a bigger favorite and lead if it was no spade, 5, 7 or T.

But then suddenly BB wakes up with a hand and Button caps? The fad these days is to fast play sets and str8's, esp on a flop like that, and I figured best case scenario for me is that I need to get 2 more cards off without seeing A,5,7,T or spade. I figured I'd play it safe and fold before it got out of hand.

Any opinions? Should I go to showdown if no draws come? Should I at least see the turn? I don't have Ks so I'm definitely folding turn if a spade comes.

[lozen]

Yeah with the flush draw out there you could be looking at 5-7 or 7-10. As for folding Sometimes you fold the best hand.
It sucks though when you see the hnad play out and you had the winner [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I call this, but I play bad. You could be up against draws only and not made hands, stuff like A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or JT of any suit. Of course, a set or straight could be out there as well. I wait for the turn to make a decision.

[elindauer]

Hi MrMonkey,

Interesting hand. You have a hand that may be good, but isn't always, and one that faces significant reverse implied odds when behind. It's a huge fold to lay down here, but it might just be right.

If you choose to continue and are behind, you have virtually no equity. Let's say you lose 2.5 BB on average.

If you are ahead, you have the pot minus whatever your opponents are going to take out. I'll guess they have 60% equity in the pot (TT, As 2s, for example). They get, combined, 13 SB, probably plus a few for the times they push you off the best hand, and the times they catch and you pay off (minus some for the times they payoff and you are good). Call it 15 SB.

That leaves you with only 7 SB of equity in the pot when you are ahead, and you have to pay 2 SB to claim it. To justify this, you have to believe you are ahead about 58% of the time AND you have to believe that they will not push you off the best hand too often on the turn.

How often are you ahead?

I'd say the button can hold any set, TT-QQ, a suited ace, or a straight + flush draw. BB is similar but without the possibility of TT-QQ. That's:

9 ways to have a set
18 ways for overpair
a couple suited connector straigt+flush draws
7 suited aces (discouting button raising Axs some)

27 ways to be ahead, 9 behind. But we have to beat them both, so we have to take the product of the probability they both are behind us, about 18/27 ^ 2

So we beat either of them individually 2/3 of the time, but beat them BOTH only 4 times in 9. We're ahead about 55% of the time, not quite enough to call.

It's really close though. Mix in much chance that one of them has nothing and you have a call. Give them much chance of staying aggressive with draws on the turn and you have a fold. Don't like variance? Fold. Think you can make the right call on the turn often? Call.

Good luck.
Eric

[JimmyV]

You MUST three-bet this flop. That simplifies the matter considerably. When you fail to do so BB can get any number of ideas about how to play his TP+straightdraw, and button gets the idea that his QQ is boss. If you three-bet and BB caps, then you're starting to get real information. Also, you can then lead the turn (and call one back, probably, folding to a three-bet or a BB raise of scary card) to get even more information and continue to assert your premium hand. Notably you MIGHT be drawing, since top two pair is not out of the question for BB, and that would give you three extra outs (then six if the turn is a blank).

Don't be passive and you'll not face such tough decisions. The fold is correct given how you played it, but your mistake was before that.

JimmyV

[Jeff W]

Perfect.

[JimmyV]

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Perfect.

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Eh?

Why?

Smooth-calling the flop raise canNOT be correct.

[Jeff W]

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Smooth-calling the flop raise canNOT be correct.

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I think this is a case where the turn card drastically changes our equity and I do not believe our flop equity edge is very large.

[JimmyV]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Smooth-calling the flop raise canNOT be correct.

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I think this is a case where the turn card drastically changes our equity and I do not believe our flop equity edge is very large.

[/ QUOTE ]

But there are two people with outs still behind you. (BB has not yet re-raised.) You MUST charge them or give up immediately. N'est-ce pas?

I think you played it perfectly. Your goal here on the flop is to see the turn card and pop a good one, but your opponents are telling you you're either going to need a lot of help to win this hand or dodge a lot of cards. Even if one is on a draw, both probably are not, and you're likely drawing very thin against one of them. You have one pair on a super draw-heavy board against people who *really* love their hands. You did the right thing by just moving on to a better spot.