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#1
08-17-2005, 06:45 AM
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AA, set, question about opponent\'s play
I've played about 20 hands with opponent, and his stats are: medium vpip, fairly highish pfr, and fair aggression. These stats are going to be accurate within a decent range, maybe 40% of the time?
--- Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (8 handed) converter Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. UTG posts a blind of $2. MP1 posts a blind of $2. UTG (poster) checks, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 (poster) checks, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BB calls, UTG folds, MP1 calls. Flop: (7.50 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font> BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB folds, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, MP1 calls. Turn: (7.75 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> MP1 checks, Hero checks. River: (7.75 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP1 calls. Final Pot: 9.75 BB -------- Firstly, did I play it okay? Here's what I was thinking about: Because I put in the cap, I can't quite tell how serious this guy is about his hand. I do know that this could have been a very bad card for me, and there's really no card that can come on the river to hurt me. When he doesn't bet the monotone turn, and doesn't bet the river, I can go ahead and bet-call this river, I think. I don't see this guy trying for a checkraise twice, so bet-folding isn't an option. --------- Secondly, my opponent had 33. Given the action, do you think it would be a good value bet for him to bet on the river? Do you think it was a good idea for him to slow down on the turn? 
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#2
08-17-2005, 06:48 AM
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Re: AA, set, question about opponent\'s play
He should bet/call the turn, and check/fold the river UI I believe. Only a flush is raising that turn.
After you check thru the turn, I think he should value bet the river.
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#4
08-17-2005, 07:00 AM
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Re: AA, set, question about opponent\'s play
[ QUOTE ]
villain cannot value bet on the river with bottom set on that kind of board given your action, unless he's horrible, or you are horrible and he knows it. [/ QUOTE ] An overplayed AK or A7 2pair are possible....
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#5
08-17-2005, 07:02 AM
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Re: AA, set, question about opponent\'s play
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] villain cannot value bet on the river with bottom set on that kind of board given your action, unless he's horrible, or you are horrible and he knows it. [/ QUOTE ] An overplayed AK or A7 2pair are possible.... [/ QUOTE ] Like I said, if hero is horrible and villain knows it.
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#6
08-17-2005, 07:13 AM
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Re: AA, set, question about opponent\'s play
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] villain cannot value bet on the river with bottom set on that kind of board given your action, unless he's horrible, or you are horrible and he knows it. [/ QUOTE ] An overplayed AK or A7 2pair are possible.... [/ QUOTE ] Like I said, if hero is horrible and villain knows it. [/ QUOTE ] Uh... overplaying AKo (no K suited) in situations like this is a leak that I'm working on. FWIW, I could beat party's 0.5/1 for nearly 2bb/100 before plugging up leaks like this. So having a leak like this doesn't make you horrible...
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#8
08-17-2005, 02:06 PM
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Re: AA, set, question about opponent\'s play
how many hearts on the board?
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#9
08-17-2005, 02:19 PM
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Re: AA, set, question about opponent\'s play
When you raise two posters from the CO, you could have quite a lot of hands. But when you cap the flop, you're showing lots of strength on this board. Villain probably puts you on some broadway of [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], KK with a heart and perhaps an overplayed AK without a heart. If you have been playing very agressive, throw in some K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] hands with an offsuit high kicker. I think he had his mind set on calling down, which probably isn't bad. But your turn check must have surprised him... I think he should throw a bet in on the river.
As for your hand, if villain doesn't have you beat already on the turn, you wouldn't mind him folding since there are 8 outs for a split. If he's got a hugely overplayed "naked" K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], and checkraise you, well you still have 10 outs to beat him on the river... A lower flush might get scared and just call your bet. So I think a better line for your hand is to bet the turn and check behind on the river UI.
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#10
08-17-2005, 02:21 PM
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Re: AA, set, question about opponent\'s play
I would have bet/called the turn, called the river. 3betting heads up with a flush draw seems a little much to me, although I guess it could be right to some. So I wouldn't give him credit for a flush right off the bat. If he raised the turn, I would re-think that, and actually assume he had made it on the flop.
There aren't many cards that can kill you, but if he's heartless, any of the nine hearts left makes a split, right?
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