Will you call all-in when your missed-AK cont. bet hits the turn?

[Slim Pickens]

On the surface my opponent thinks he has trip tens. On the next level, he thinks I'm bluffing a missed AQ? Anyway, since it's so early, I have to consider him a standard 33 opponent. Did my weak-looking bet just get a raise out of a weaker hand, or am I drawing almost dead?

Party Poker $30+3 No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t15 (10 handed) converter

MP1 (t775)
MP2 (t982)
MP3 (t880)
CO (t775)
Button (t798)
SB (t695)
Hero (t800)
UTG (t800)
UTG+1 (t695)
UTG+2 (t800)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls t15, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, Button calls t15, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t60</font>, UTG+1 calls t45, Button folds.

Flop: (t145) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t150</font>, UTG+1 calls t150.

Turn: (t445) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t100</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises to t400</font>, Hero ???

[Karak567]

I check/fold the turn.

If the turn is not a club, I think I lead out with whatever size bet is appropriate, all in or whatever.

[Slim Pickens]

I posted this because I called and collected from 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. I thought my call was stupid at the time, but the result of this random nerve firing call made me wonder something. Why am I not taking chances early moree often? That's when the donks are still around. I've done the math on how big of an edge I need to call for all my chips and such, and my answer to that doesn't change. What's different is that I might actually have a much larger edge than I think I do in a lot of very early tournamnet situations because the total idiots have yet to bust out. Every onece in a while, someone brings this point up, and usually I don't believe them, but now I'm starting to think there's some truth to it.

[ QUOTE ]
Why am I not taking chances early moree often? That's when the donks are still around.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've thought this a lot too. The thing is, people are very bad at keeping track of massive amounts of info in our heads (i.e. remembering what cards people have every time we call them in spots like this), so we may both being results oriented by thinking this. It's clear that playing tight early works very well (virtually everyone on this forum has ~30% ROI and plays this way). Can someone use poker tracker somehow to figure out what % of the time a call on a paired flop and then raise on the turn has TPTK beat? I suspect it's at least &gt;50%, possibly &gt;67% (so pot-sized bets should be folded to).

[jon462]

***** Hand History for Game 2515401866 *****
15/30 TOURNEY TEXAS HOLD'EM GAME TABLE (NL) (TOURNAMENT 14737312) - THU AUG 11 02:47:04 EDT 2005
Table Table 11561 (Real Money) -- Seat 7 is the button
Total number of players : 8
Seat 1: gassman008 (800)
Seat 2: Giga_debt (750)
Seat 3: Rasti (800)
Seat 4: time_go_up (800)
Seat 5: KurtAAAKK (670)
Seat 7: doplhin31 (785)
Seat 8: MRothbard (800)
Seat 10: Rhino_909 (2595)
MRothbard posts small blind (10)
Rhino_909 posts big blind (15)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Giga_debt [ Ks, Ac ]
gassman008 calls (15)
Giga_debt raises (75) to 75
Rasti folds.
time_go_up folds.
KurtAAAKK folds.
doplhin31 calls (75)
MRothbard folds.
Rhino_909 calls (60)
gassman008 folds.
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 2s, 6s, 4c ]
Rhino_909 checks.
Giga_debt bets (125)
doplhin31 raises (710) to 710
doplhin31 is all-In.
Rhino_909 folds.
Giga_debt calls (550)
Giga_debt is all-In.
** Dealing Turn ** : [ 8c ]
** Dealing River ** : [ 4h ]
Creating Main Pot with $1600 with Giga_debt
Creating Side Pot 1 with $35 with doplhin31
** Summary **
Main Pot: 1600 | Side Pot 1: 35
Board: [ 2s 6s 4c 8c 4h ]
gassman008 balance 785, lost 15 (folded)
Giga_debt balance 1600, bet 750, collected 1600, net +850 [ Ks Ac ] [ a pair of fours with ace kicker -- Ac,Ks,8c,4c,4hAc(kicker card) ]
Rasti balance 800, didn't bet (folded)
time_go_up balance 800, didn't bet (folded)
KurtAAAKK balance 670, didn't bet (folded)
doplhin31 balance 35, bet 785, collected 35, lost -750 [ 9c Jh ] [ a pair of fours -- Jh,9c,8c,4c,4h ]
MRothbard balance 790, lost 10 (folded)
Rhino_909 balance 2520, lost 75 (folded)

[tigerite]

That's a terrible call. No way will you be ahead most of the time there.

[45suited]

[ QUOTE ]
That's a terrible call. No way will you be ahead most of the time there.

[/ QUOTE ]

Talking oneself into a call under the notion of higher level thinking does not change the fact that you are usually beaten here.

[jon462]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
That's a terrible call. No way will you be ahead most of the time there.

[/ QUOTE ]

Talking oneself into a call under the notion of higher level thinking does not change the fact that you are usually beaten here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dont "usually" make the call.

[jon462]

[ QUOTE ]
That's a terrible call. No way will you be ahead most of the time there.

[/ QUOTE ]
You'll really hate this one then:


**** Hand History for Game 2543238274 *****
15/30 TOURNEY TEXAS HOLD'EM GAME TABLE (NL) (TOURNAMENT 14881856) - TUE AUG 16 01:01:28 EDT 2005
Table Table 11105 (Real Money) -- Seat 5 is the button
Total number of players : 9
Seat 1: Jonblaze12 (690)
Seat 2: Giga_debt (815)
Seat 3: snoop_lbc (760)
Seat 5: Juicy_Pear (1145)
Seat 6: oneyejack268 (445)
Seat 7: mjnoone (800)
Seat 8: EvaHerdaThat (800)
Seat 9: Seasidex (790)
Seat 10: endomatic (1755)
oneyejack268 posts small blind (10)
mjnoone posts big blind (15)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Giga_debt [ Qc, Ad ]
EvaHerdaThat folds.
Seasidex folds.
endomatic folds.
Jonblaze12 folds.
Giga_debt raises (60) to 60
snoop_lbc calls (60)
Juicy_Pear folds.
oneyejack268 folds.
mjnoone folds.
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 6c, Tc, Js ]
Giga_debt bets (90)
snoop_lbc raises (250) to 250
Giga_debt calls (160)
** Dealing Turn ** : [ 2c ]
Giga_debt checks.
snoop_lbc bets (450)
snoop_lbc is all-In.
Giga_debt calls (450)
** Dealing River ** : [ Ts ]
Creating Main Pot with $1545 with snoop_lbc
** Summary **
Main Pot: 1545 |
Board: [ 6c Tc Js 2c Ts ]
Jonblaze12 balance 690, didn't bet (folded)
Giga_debt balance 1600, bet 760, collected 1545, net +785 [ Qc Ad ] [ a pair of tens with queen kicker -- Ad,Qc,Js,Tc,TsQc(kicker card) ]
snoop_lbc balance 0, lost 760 [ As 3s ] [ a pair of tens -- As,Js,Tc,Ts,6c ]
Juicy_Pear balance 1145, didn't bet (folded)
oneyejack268 balance 435, lost 10 (folded)
mjnoone balance 785, lost 15 (folded)
EvaHerdaThat balance 800, didn't bet (folded)
Seasidex balance 790, didn't bet (folded)
endomatic balance 1755, didn't bet (folded)

[tigerite]

You're betting too small on the flop, it's no wonder you're having to 2nd guess and call all-ins