Interesting dilemma

I am playing at a 2/4 table. The table is very loose passive but tends to respect preflop raises. I have noticed that if people call or reraise they generally have AA - JJ, AK, AQ, KQ, etc. I am in the big blind with 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] when a betting war goes on.

UTG raises, UTG+1 reraises, followed by re-raise, call, call, fold, call, button folds, SB folds, I fold.

There are at least 4 people in at 4 bets each with 2 more possible when I chose to fold. (The other two called). This means that about 12 of the 20 AKQJT's are out on the deal leaving about 8 remaining in the deck. The odds of low cards hitting the deck are significantly increased. Under these conditions, is it worthwhile calling 3 bets and seeing the flop?

PS The flop was 7d, 7c, 5h, followed by 8d, 6d.
The winner showed AA but i would of had a set on the flop, a straight and full house draws on the river and won a huge pot if I stayed to see the flop.

[Dave5511]

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PS The flop was 7d, 7c, 5h, followed by 8d, 6d.
The winner showed AA but i would of had a set on the flop, a straight and full house draws on the river and won a huge pot if I stayed to see the flop.

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This is the part that doesn't matter. You can't let that play in your decision in the future.

I have seen worse calls preflop than if you had made this one. Here's my fear:

You get a PIECE of the flop....just enough to keep you interesed, 4 flush, open ended, a pair, +backdoor straight and flush draws, etc. If you wanna hang, you're going to have to be calling some big bets and raises.

Sure, you would have won THIS one, but in my book, this is an easy preflop fold at the table you described.

If the flop comes 777, great! If the flop comes AhKdQc, well, you've only lost 2 BB.

I'm just too afraid of making a big 2nd best hand that's gonna cost me beaucoup chips.

[toss]

I don't think its a bad call getting at least 7:1 and you're almost guaranteed 8:1.

my thought isnt so much that in this situation I would have won. My thought is more of a probability argument. There are about 12 big cards out to the players. You can figure someone folded a K-x, or Q-x somewhere in this mess; leaving 13 big cards out of the deck. That means that there are 7 bigs and 25 littles in the 32 remaining cards. With 67s you have connectors for the straights that will beat A-5 and decent chances for trips, and a flush (not much weight to the flush draw since all the bigs will beat it if they draw too). Anyone AK, or AQ may stick around to keep betting giving more of a payoff and if the straight draw or trips doesn't come you lay it down. Also, after the flop, you don't count the odds out of 46 remaining cards because you fairly well know what 12 of the hole cards are. That is if you have a straight draw your odds are about 30:4 for a gutshot, and 26:8 for an open ended.

I don't know that seeing the flop is a bad idea if you are aware that fire is looming. If a big card comes up or no reasonable draws come up you get out and it cost you 3 bets.

This is a rare case where there was so much action that the big cards opened up opportunities for smaller hands (maybe).

Admittedly, even after thinking this and trying to justify it I still don't think I could pull the trigger and call 3 bets.

[toss]

You have a suited connector which is enough to call with getting at least 7:1. You're guaranteed a huge pot if you hit your flush draw, straight draw, or fullhouse.

[elindauer]

Since the table is passive, this call is probably too expensive, particularly since the unusual number of pf raises indicates it will take at least 2 pair to win.

Good luck.
Eric

[The Goober]

This should be very easy to figure out with poker stove (I'd do it myself, but I'm at work now). Although keep in mind that the poker stove percentage will still be too high, since it assumes you call to the river.

I'd be willing to bet that it's a bad call. Even if most of the good cards are out, since someone is very likely to have a high pair you still have to hit the board twice to win.

Goober or others. I am not familiar with poker stove. Can you give me more information about this.

PokerStove