Is the free turn play +EV in the PP 30?

[Robb]

If this has already been discussed....well then I guess I got some good exercise in by typing.

Question 1: In general, is raising the flop in the Party 30 with the hopes of getting a "free" turn card if unimproved a +EV play? Little TOO general of a question? Ok a hand I played recently. I have no read on my opponents except their stats as they're both fairly new to the table:

23/10/1.1 raises UTG and I 3 bet with A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. 30/13/1.8 calls from the SB and it's 3 way to the flop.

Flop: J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]10 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
UTG bets. So UTG has something, best case scenario is KQ I guess. Some guesses in order of likelihood:
AJ
KJs
A10s
KQ
AK/AQ
JJ/1010
------------- less likely divider line?
K10s/Q10s
77-99
55(set)
any pair
J10s
98s

So that's the difficulty of the question - his hand set is fairly large. In addition, how he'll react to the raise on the flop with any of those hands is unknown, let alone the turn. Based on his PT numbers I can guess.

AJ 3bet, lead turn
KJs call, lead turn
A10s call, check
KQ call, lead turn with any pair improvement, CR straight
AK/AQ call, check
JJ/1010 3 bet, lead
------------- less likely divider line?
K10s/Q10s call, check
77-99 call, check
55(set) 3bet, lead
any pair call or fold/ check
J10s 3bet/lead turn
98s call, check

But that still doesn't do me much good right? I mean that's hardly set in stone plus the presence of the SB changes the dynamic. I might be able to estimate the correctness of raising the flop if all of those hands were equally likely, which they are certainly not.

Anyhoo, I think I've been a little too default-y with AK by nearly always raising in this spot. There's all kind of scenarios with # of players and position so I guess I'll just stick to this hand. Is raising the flop here +EV? If SB calls I almost never bet the turn unimproved because I'm not calling a river bet unimproved with that type of board. So I don't follow-up with a turn bet/river check thinking "Well I'm going to put 1 BB in here so I might as well put it in on the turn and hope they fold."

Question 2: In the hand SB called and UTG 3 bet. I 4 bet, again looking for a free turn card. I could also clean up my A/K outs if SB folds A10/K10 and but my primary goal is a free turn. Is this a good play? I've been starting to incorporate it the last couple months with slightly positive results.

[Robb]

"Bueller..............Bueller"

Stop playing with your brother's money.

Love,
Mom