Tournament Theory / Equity Question

[dabluebery]

NL Holdem Tournament, down to 4 players, 3 pay.

The prizes are $2,000, $1,200, $800. There are 72,000 chips in play, and you have about 14k at the start of the hand.

You = 14,000
Player 2 = ~28,000
Player 3 = ~22,000
Player 4 = ~8,000

You make a preflop raise, with blinds at 600 / 1200, to 4000. Player 2 in the BB goes over the top of you for the rest of your chips, and you have to call 10,000 to win 18,000 in the middle, so you're getting 1.8:1.

You calculate that your hand, against the range of hands your opponent has, has an equity of 36%. From a pot odds perspective, your call is EV neutral, or slightly positive.

Do you make the call?

Explain your reasons. If possible, please include how tournament theory and tournament equity play a role in your decision, if any.

If you fold, what equity would you need to make this call? 50%? 60%?

If you call, please explain how you can make an EV neutral call when 64% of the time, you are out of the tournament, with 0 prize equity.

[tigerite]

I don't raise preflop with those blinds and my chip stack unless it's all-in.

[eastbay]

Do the calculatin in terms of $EV (use ICM by default), not chipEV.

eastbay

[maddog2030]

[ QUOTE ]
If you call, please explain how you can make an EV neutral call when 64% of the time, you are out of the tournament, with 0 prize equity.

[/ QUOTE ]

Google for the independent chip model. It will answer your specific questions.

Generally in a tournament you shouldn't take 0 chipEV gambles because of gambler's ruin and the changing value of chips throughout the tournament. The amount of edge you need depends on the situation. This effect is amplified to its highest peak on the bubble, which is the situation you're in.

[dabluebery]

Ok. I am aware of the ICM and did an equity calculation before I posted the hand. It's a clear fold, not even close. I would need over 50% equity for calling to be correct, considering the equity of placing 3rd with another short stack, among other things.

I'm really looking for the right way to apply this knowledge. Off the top of my head, this fact of life on the bubble of a tournament (especially a SNG with a steep payout structure like 50-30-20) will make CALLING bets very difficult for other players hoping to cash, so you can probably have tons of fold equity by exploiting this and playing aggressively. Even though you'll run into your fair share of made hands and bubble anyway.

Off the mark?

[maddog2030]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm really looking for the right way to apply this knowledge. Off the top of my head, this fact of life on the bubble of a tournament (especially a SNG with a steep payout structure like 50-30-20) will make CALLING bets very difficult for other players hoping to cash, so you can probably have tons of fold equity by exploiting this and playing aggressively. Even though you'll run into your fair share of made hands and bubble anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]

Pretty much. Most people intuitively know to tighten up at the bubble: "I'm almost ITM so I shouldn't take too many chances." They may not know to what extreme or if a particular call is theoretically proper, but the general idea is easy and virtually all opponents are aware of the fact.

However, that's where most of your opponents stop thinking. What they fail to realize is almost everyone else tightens up too, often too tight or too loose, and that this is highly exploitable... your opponents can often make massive $EV mistakes because they are unaware of the tectonic plates constantly shifting below them.

If you want to get a feel for it all, just use eastbay's calc or an ICM calc and play with it in different situations you encounter while you're playing. The tutorial on eastbay's calc should bring up somewhat up to speed for spotting all the +$EV pushes you're likely missing.