Is it broke? - QJo

TJD · #1 08-15-2005, 10:35 AM

Hi all. I'd appreciate your help. I am doing a thorough review on my game to see if I have slipped into bad habits. I'd appreciate comments on this to see if my game is "broke"

I don't normally post thoughts but I do here so you can tell me where it is wrong (if it is)

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 1 fold, MP1 calls, 1 fold, MP3 calls, Hero calls, Button calls, SB completes, BB checks.

 everyone happy with a limp here? 

Flop: (7 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (7 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG bets, MP1 folds, MP3 folds, Hero raises, Button folds, SB folds, BB folds, UTG 3-bets, Hero calls.

 I think the raise must be right but once again I have a problem. The UTG is a 40/5/1.7 player but only 42 hands. Since this sort of player nearly always SPs a set, I am pretty sure this is a PP or a J. KJ or AJ are possible as well as QJ or JT. With only 5% PFR, I do not know whether he will be open raising KQ or AQ UTG but I think 2 overcards is unlikely. In this situation I nearly always go for the low variance play of just calling here. I do not WANT a PP to fold. I will decide on the turn since I have position. 

Turn: (6.50 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG bets, Hero calls.

OK, as hoped for/expected he bets the turn. I can now just call or raise. Raising is great If I am ahead AND he calls. It is bad news if HE is ahead or if he folds a worse hand he would put a bet in on the river with. Which is best? Once again versus a relative unknown and with a new 2 flush hitting the board I will not feel confident enough to fold to a raise, so I just call. 

River: (8.50 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks.

 So, has AJ just become scared of the K or should I bet. I think I should bet here. Everyone agree? The river is my worst street. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Final Pot: 8.50 BB

DrSavage · #2 08-15-2005, 10:44 AM

I would fold preflop.
Bet the river though.

stoxtrader · #3 08-15-2005, 11:13 AM

for me this is also a fold pre-flop, unless limpers are bad. limping is not terrible though.

flop raise is good.

turn is fine.

river. value bet!

DeeJ · #4 08-15-2005, 11:44 AM

I would play this, I'm getting tremendous odds with good position if I can get in for 1 bet with 6 or 7 others. I'd call one more if raised behind, but not 2.

flop raise is essential to clear out the weak calling hands. I'd be tempted to check behind because I'm terrible like you, but I'm learning that river check-raises are far rarer than river check-i'm-quite-weak-actually occurrences.

sfer · #5 08-15-2005, 11:49 AM

Easy river bet.

blackaces13 · #6 08-15-2005, 12:16 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Easy river bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

So, what did UTG 3 bet that flop with? Granted I don't play nearly this high but I think he looks like he's got AJ.

sfer · #7 08-15-2005, 12:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Easy river bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

So, what did UTG 3 bet that flop with? Granted I don't play nearly this high but I think he looks like he's got AJ.

[/ QUOTE ]

I expect most 15/30 players to raise AJ before the flop. It's the kind of thing that's easy to confirm with the most rudimentary player read, which is absent in this hand.

blackaces13 · #8 08-15-2005, 01:13 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I expect most 15/30 players to raise AJ before the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, he's got him at 5% PFR after 42 hands so its tough to say. My question remains, just what hands is UTG 3 betting that flop with? No draws to be had.

I'm having trouble imagining a hand that UTG 3 bets the flop with that we beat and that calls a river bet. JTs maybe? That's about it.

legend42 · #9 08-15-2005, 01:29 PM

I also think checking behind on the river is okay here. A timid AJ is a definite possibility, and he might even be trying to get cute with 76 or KJ. So unless you can fold to a check-raise with shadowless certainty, I don't mind taking the free showdown here.

sfer · #10 08-15-2005, 01:35 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I also think checking behind on the river is okay here. A timid AJ is a definite possibility, and he might even be trying to get cute with 76 or KJ. So unless you can fold to a check-raise with shadowless certainty, I don't mind taking the free showdown here.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's a bad card to set up a river checkraise.