Poll: Calling standards on bubble when BB will be all in next hand.

Here are the chip counts, you are short stacked in the small blind. Blinds are 150/300

UTG: 60
BTN: 3960
SB: 670
BB: 3310

UTG folds, he has been playing tight and folded off his last small blind to save his 60 chips. Button raises to 800, he has been playing a very agressive game since we have neared the money. Big blind has been playing a loose game, but more passive. Earlier he called a big raise with A9o for more than half his stack to knock out 5th place finisher.

You have posted 150 of your 670. This leaves you with 520 should you choose to fold. Blinds go up to 200/400 in two hands. The key to your decision will be that the tiny stack will be all in for his big blind next hand, and even if he wins that hand vs. the small blind he will be all in again the next hand. Which of the following hands are you willing to call with:

The hand that made me consider this question was the JJ. I made the call as did the big blind behind me. The final board read AQ5JK the checked it down until the button bet on the river with his T5s. At the time I was pissed I made the call, but upon deeper analysis I think I would make the call again. Along with the KK and the AK. Thoughts?

[45suited]

The only hand that I would even consider calling with here is KK, and I'd have to give that some more thought. IMO, all the other hands listed are no-brainer folds.

[Nacarno]

Assuming the BB folds if you call, and you win your equity, according to ICM, becomes 0.2827 from 0.2236. This means that you need to win nearly 80% of the time for call to be correct. Only KK approaches this, but that's if the big stack is pushing any two. If his range is any narrower I think this is a fold.

[Nacarno]

Oh, and if the BB calls you need to be ~75% to win against two players. So yeah... if you think the BB might call anyway, fold all those hands.

Thanks for your thoughts, I will definetly have to reconsider how I play spots like this. For what its worth, how much, if any, does your approach change if the UTG short stack has 360 chips as opposed to 60?

[Nacarno]

I'm going to assume that the 300 extra chips are coming from the 2nd largest stack so it's still the button that's the chip leader. In this case your equity if you call and win (and the BB folds) goes from 0.1734 to 0.2596 so you only need to win ~67% of the time to make the call correct. So now KK and JJ are clear calls and the rest of the hands (except for KJs) are close.

If the button likes to push aces I probably call with AKo and AQs because you have him dominated so often, but if he's pushing any two I'd consider folding them especially if I think the BB might play. And again, if the BB is prone to make loose calls, tighten up.

[good2cu]

All of these are easy folds as ICM says you need to be 80% here, and even KK is unlikly to be 80% here. I'd call with AA only.

[tigerite]

I would reluctantly call with KK. Fold everything else, bar AA of course. And, it's not even close.

[tigerite]

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for your thoughts, I will definetly have to reconsider how I play spots like this. For what its worth, how much, if any, does your approach change if the UTG short stack has 360 chips as opposed to 60?

[/ QUOTE ]

A fair bit, then I would be calling with smaller pairs, and I'd give AK some thought.