AKo on the bubble, on my chin I have stubble!

[Kama45]

Proper play? $10+1

***** Hand History for Game 2537996989 *****
200/400 Tourney Texas Hold'em Game Table (NL) (Tournament 14853758) - Mon Aug 15 02:02:34 EDT 2005
Table Table 35331 (Real Money) -- Seat 10 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 3: Boston36 (2684)
Seat 7: devilsfanfox (4735)
Seat 9: popps1960 (171)
Seat 10: HunanBeef45 (410)
Boston36 posts small blind (100)
devilsfanfox posts big blind (200)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HunanBeef45 [ Kh, Ac ]
popps1960 folds.
HunanBeef45 folds.
Boston36 folds.
** Summary **
Main Pot: 300
Boston36 balance 2584, lost 100 (folded)
devilsfanfox balance 4835, bet 200, collected 300, net +100
popps1960 balance 171, didn't bet (folded)
HunanBeef45 balance 410, didn't bet (folded)

Oh no, probably.

I think I would play it. I just made a poll post about a similar bubble situation with an impending all in for the bb next hand. I'm looser than most of the responders so far so I think a lot of people would fold it. What stands out to me in this situation is that you are by no means gauranteed to make the money if you fold here. If the short stack doubles up next hand the pressure is suddenly on you. My play may also explain why I finish fourth more than any other spot except first.

[Kama45]

Even if he doubles up to $340, he's most likely all-in again due to being the SB. I figured he had to win two in row to stay alive, so I like my chances of folding and limping ITM.

[psyduck]

I'd do this too, since big stacks are so call-happy in this situation.

[SammyKid11]

I push here....FWIW, my bubble ITM% is 82 through >600 22's. The crux of the pushbot strategy is not nervously hoping the other guy will lose. Sure, you don't risk your stack with a marginal hand here when shortie's gonna be BB all-in next hand...but this is AK you're holding. Can't let it go and respect yourself.

P.S. - just ran this in SNGPT's to confirm my suspicions...even if you give maniacal calling ranges to both big stacks, this is still a clear push.

[tigerite]

They'll call with far more than the maniac calling range. BB will call with, I would say at an estimate, 100% of hands.

[SammyKid11]

You really think BB's calling with any two, at the 11's? I'm not at that level anymore, but when I was there, I found most players there to be far too tight on the bubble -- even against short stacks.

[tigerite]

He needs to call 210 to win 400 + 200 + 100 = 700. You think he's not calling with a hugely wide range, given that it doesn't impact his stack in the slightest?

[ChoicestHops]

I dont like situations where there's a guy about to bust and you have a good hand here, but you have 2 BB. You should have been pushing and getting a stack much, much earlier here. I don't like trying to limp ITM - I play for first.