Lesson : Stick with your Reads

Paxosmotic · #1 08-15-2005, 12:32 AM

I think these kind of posts are infinitely more helpful than posting the 400th "flopped set with AA" thread of the night, and while I'm not exactly Coach around here, this happened to me tonight and it's worth commenting on. So what I'll do is post a hand I played tonight along with the reads and point out where I royally screwed up and why it's important for the progression of a micro-limit player.

In this hand, MP3 is a LAG who can be counted on to fire and bluff-raise endlessly but slows down to further aggression and will let go of a hand. He's in it for the gambling.

SB has done nothing remarkable so far, so assume unknown villain. He'll be the target of our ire.

PokerStars 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
5 folds, MP3 raises, CO calls, Button calls, SB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (10 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, MP3 raises, CO folds, Button folds, SB 3-bets, Hero calls, MP3 calls.

MP3 did exactly as expected and raised, which I had hoped would blow away the field and get us heads up. Little unexpected drop-in from SB, though. Let's break it down.

I'll call two cold back to me against these two any day. If SB had been the preflop raiser, I'd have to proceed with a lot more caution because of the possible AA, KK, or AK, but since he didn't raise preflop I can rule those out.

It's also important to note that after a bet and a raise, SB will not raise here without an ace. (Again, I assume an unknown has half a sense until he proves otherwise, but ony half a sense.) So he has just enough of a hand to call a raise with preflop, but not quite strong enough to raise, and this flop has helped him out. While 66 is certainly possible, AJ and AT fit very nicely for a bet and a half out of the small blind.

Turn: (9.50 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets, Hero calls, MP3 folds.

Standard so we can pop the river. As expected, MP3 bows out.

River: (11.50 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets, Hero calls.

The flush missed, but it's a scare card, and I let it scare me. If Villain had a K, he has now pulled ahead, so make the crying call and hope it's an ace.

But the problem with this logic is we've already made a read earlier in the hand that showed us there is almost no way that Villain has a King in his hand here. None.

I was watching one of the Howard Lederer videos the other day and in it he discusses the importance of sticking with a read. I can almost recite his quote line for line...

There's something about it when all the cards are out and your opponent has bet into you one more time that makes people freeze up. But you need to stick by your reads and have the courage of your convictions.

In this situation, I let a scare card do its job against me and it froze me up and cost me $2. It didn't cost me a "big bet" or a "share of the pot", I took $2 out of my pocket and handed it to this idiot because I didn't stick with a read.

This is why we make reads on our opponents. It's why we datamine and use PT and PokerAce. If you are approaching every opponent the same way, you need to start thinking about breaking out of that mold and really trying to figure out why your opponent is doing what they're doing. Take my flop cold call. Change MP3 from LAG to LAP, do I still make the call? What if he's LAG but SB is too? What if both are unknown and I'm facing two cold?

Gigabet made a post about SnGs where he discussed reviewing hand histories. I don't think nearly enough limit players have read that post, but I'll summarize the key points. Every time a hand is finished, you need to look at what your opponent had. If an opponent cold calls before the flop, you need to go out of your way to find out what he had there. Was it a reasonable cold call with AJs, or did he just cold call with K9o? If he cold called with that and then flopped middle pair and went to three bets on the flop, what does that tell you? These are the kind of reads you need to be making after every hand. They are why a small percentage of this forum is beating the game for a signifigant amount while a large percentage is posting bad beat stories and sweating the winners.

Every action in every hand has a meaning, and if you're not paying attention to what the other players are telling you, you're missing a goldmine of information.

It cost me $2 tonight.

Final Pot: 13.50 BB instead of 15.50 BB

NateDog · #2 08-15-2005, 12:44 AM

I think SB has sixes in the hole.

hemstock · #3 08-15-2005, 12:45 AM

I do that a loooot.
UTG always raises AK preflop. The original flush draw did not complete, I am pretty sure I have MP2 beaten and I am also sure UTG does not have AK. And yet. I just call instead of raising because..... I don't really know why. LEAK!

PokerStars 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 3 folds, MP2 calls, 1 fold, CO calls, Button calls, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (6 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG checks, MP2 bets, CO folds, Button calls, SB folds, Hero calls, UTG raises, MP2 3-bets, Button folds, Hero calls, UTG caps, MP2 calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (9.50 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets, MP2 calls, Hero calls.

River: (12.50 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets, MP2 calls, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 15.50 BB

Online247 · #4 08-15-2005, 12:45 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I think SB has sixes in the hole.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a possiblity that I think Hero forgot to mention. Still I think Hero has a point on making reads not based solely on pokertracker stats.

Paxosmotic · #5 08-15-2005, 12:48 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think SB has sixes in the hole.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a possiblity that I think Hero forgot to mention. Still I think Hero has a point on making reads not based solely on pokertracker stats.

[/ QUOTE ]
I mentioned it in the original post. Villain could have 66, he could also have AK, AA, KK, or K3, all of which beat me. There is a chance he has 66, and if I get 3-bet on the river I'm going to be pretty sick about it, but 99% of the time we're betting and raising, we don't have the stone cold nuts, so we've gotta trust that our good hand is better than our opponent's good hand.

Online247 · #6 08-15-2005, 12:51 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think SB has sixes in the hole.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a possiblity that I think Hero forgot to mention. Still I think Hero has a point on making reads not based solely on pokertracker stats.

[/ QUOTE ]
I mentioned it in the original post. Villain could have 66, he could also have AK, AA, KK, or K3, all of which beat me. There is a chance he has 66, and if I get 3-bet on the river I'm going to be pretty sick about it, but 99% of the time we're betting and raising, we don't have the stone cold nuts, so we've gotta trust that our good hand is better than our opponent's good hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I apologize, I missed that part.

NateDog · #7 08-15-2005, 12:54 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think SB has sixes in the hole.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a possiblity that I think Hero forgot to mention. Still I think Hero has a point on making reads not based solely on pokertracker stats.

[/ QUOTE ]
I mentioned it in the original post. Villain could have 66, he could also have AK, AA, KK, or K3, all of which beat me. There is a chance he has 66, and if I get 3-bet on the river I'm going to be pretty sick about it, but 99% of the time we're betting and raising, we don't have the stone cold nuts, so we've gotta trust that our good hand is better than our opponent's good hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are talking about getting 3 bet on the river, but you just called. 66 makes the most sense to me here, assuming your standard 1/2 weak-tighty. You think about leading the river? (WA/WB line)

Disconnected · #8 08-15-2005, 12:54 AM

I don't think the call on the river is that terrible, since when an unknown check/3-bets, I think that a weaker Ace than you would be the worst possible hand. A ragged two-pair is possible here (as well as the set of 6's you mentioned). If I were going to pop a raise, I'd do it on the turn, because one possibility for SB is Ax or Kx suited in spades, and I'd want to raise while ahead, not if the 3rd spade falls on the river.

Your post overall is well thought out and you make some great points.

Disconnected · #9 08-15-2005, 12:56 AM

[ QUOTE ]
You are talking about getting 3 bet on the river, but you just called. 66 makes the most sense to me here, assuming your standard 1/2 weak-tighty. You think about leading the river? (WA/WB line)

[/ QUOTE ]

He's in position, so he can't lead the river. He's talking about what would happen if he did raise and SB 3-bet him.

NateDog · #10 08-15-2005, 12:57 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You are talking about getting 3 bet on the river, but you just called. 66 makes the most sense to me here, assuming your standard 1/2 weak-tighty. You think about leading the river? (WA/WB line)

[/ QUOTE ]

He's in position, so he can't lead the river. He's talking about what would happen if he did raise and SB 3-bet him.

[/ QUOTE ]

Doh. I forgot the villain was the SB.