Dead AA in capped pot

[rharless]

Thankfully, this is not my hand. [img]/forums/images/icons/smile.gif[/img]

In my $2-$5 spread, the following hand occurred:

Friend raises UTG with AA. The pot comes back to him capped with 10-way action. He mucks the AA preflop instead of calling the additional four bets for a pot that is already $250.

Note, in Colorado structure, the capped pot preflop means $27 from each player (first bet is $2, next five raises are $5 each). Future streets are essentially $5 betting with five raises allowed (max of $30/street).

Friend's reasoning was that his AA hand was dead. He felt extremely certain that the other two A's were in two other hands preflop.

For discussion, let's assume that friend is correct that his AA is dead. I know it has been discussed on 2+2 that the value of AA goes down when another person also holds AA.

In my friend's situation, is this a good muck?

[Clarkmeister]

There is a monumental difference between 2 aces being in two other hands vs. someone else also having AA. Its also a ridiculous assumption to make. I could tell you numerous anecdotes verifying this fact, but whats the point.

This is a catostrophically bad fold.

[Flashy]

I think he is seeing "monsters under the bed!" Let's say two other players hold AK. Unless two kings come up, he has them beat.
AA holds up 33% the time in a nofoldem ten hand simultation. With people clearly willing to cap bet the flop, maybe they have better cards than a normal distribution, although that is unlikely. Even so AA shoud still hold up 20-25% of the time.
With 10 people in the pot, he was getting 10-1 on at worst a 5-1 shot.
So many people have had their AA cracked that they almost wish they never got them. AAs cracked is simply more memorable than other hands. It is also tougher to let go.
I hope to get to Colorado soon and play your friend.

[eMarkM]

Dead hand? It's a made hand for crying out loud. Horrible muck. Most of the time when you win with AA, it stands up alone. You're not looking to make a set. If the other two As are out...which of these 3 hands is practically drawing dead??

10-way capped, it's true that he won't win the majority of the time. But his hand will win more than the others will. By far. Let's just say for argument that there's a lot of premium hands out (doubtful). Two players with AK, one with KK, another with QQ. Again, who's the one really dead in this situation??

[brad]

well sure he should muck, but not when hes already halfway in [img]/forums/images/icons/smile.gif[/img]

[ACPlayer]

It is entirely possible for AA to be drawing slim in a multi-way pot (if, for example, every one has pocket pairs - so that a set is very likely to hit). The chances of this are so small to be MORE than made up by the 9 to 1 odds. However, play after the flop can be very tricky due to rev imp odds problem suffered by pairs that cant improve.

If you fold in this situation leave the game.

[bernie]

let me guess...

2 guys showed down KK, while the winning hand that dragged the pot was a T4s that made the runner flush.

this was a terrible fold. there's a big difference between mucking AK here and mucking AA. and the mucking AK depends on who's doing the raising.

b

[rharless]

Wow, this post has only been up for 90 minutes and already a nice thread of responses! [img]/forums/images/icons/smile.gif[/img]

I personally thought the AA muck was ridiculous (especially since it's the other naked A hands that are dead, not his) but he stood so hard and fast by his decision that I wanted to see if there was some bizarre aberration in the stats that I was not aware of.

[rharless]

I also thought that putting two other people on naked A's was a ridiculous assumption, but battling Friend on this assumption was, as you alluded, a pointless battle.

[tewall]

Just curious. What hands was he playing?