99, I screwed up.

whlinn · #1 08-13-2005, 02:40 AM

BB is a total fish. MP3 is a rock. Tear me up. I feel like an idiot after this hand.

PokerStars 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. MP2 posts a blind of $1.
3 folds, MP2 (poster) checks, MP3 calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, SB calls, BB calls, MP2 folds, MP3 calls.

Flop: (9 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, MP3 checks, Hero bets, SB folds, BB calls, MP3 calls.

Turn: (6 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, MP3 checks, Hero checks.

River: (6 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, MP3 bets.....

dozer · #2 08-13-2005, 02:46 AM

you should have bet the turn.
Against a rock, I think you should fold this river. Especially with BB still in the hand.

hemstock · #3 08-13-2005, 02:58 AM

If you are ahead on the flop, you are most propably ahead on the turn. Bet it. When the second overcard hits on the river, should you have bet the turn you would most likely get a free showdown. That's how I'd play it.

Eeegah · #4 08-13-2005, 02:59 AM

He bet because you checked the turn. Don't check the turn. And don't lose with 99, it's the best hand in poker.

detruncate · #5 08-13-2005, 03:17 AM

The turn is the decision point. If we check, we're folding UI. It comes down to how concerned we are that a rock found a call on this ragged board. If we plan to continue we need to bet the turn.

PF, rock probably raises AK, JJ+. KQo would probably be a limp, as would TT. KJo would probably be a fold. KJs & KQs would probably be limps. KTs might be a limp. I don't think he calls T9s or worse. PPs? Maybe.

I'm instantly concerned when he calls the flop. Don't hate giving up. The more convinced we are that we're up against a genuine rock, the more I like a check/fold. Against an average opponent or a sketchy read, I bet/fold the turn and think about taking a free showdown if both ops call.

whlinn · #6 08-13-2005, 09:11 AM

It was the check on the turn and seeing what rock had that made me feel like an idiot. I folded at the showdown. Rock wasn't much of a rock as he had JTO.

Fantam · #7 08-13-2005, 09:46 AM

Bet the turn.

When you were checked to on the flop, and importantly not check raised either, it was likely that no one had a K and that you had the best hand.

When a blank fell on the turn and you were checked to again, you should have bet so as not to give a free card to anyone with an overcard to your 9's to outdraw you.

That is what appears to have happened when MP3 bet into you on the river. He probably just paired a T in his hand.

detruncate · #8 08-13-2005, 03:51 PM

[ QUOTE ]
It was the check on the turn and seeing what rock had that made me feel like an idiot. I folded at the showdown. Rock wasn't much of a rock as he had JTO.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a good example of why you have to actively interpret your PT stats and supplement with real reads. Unless you have a very large number of hands with Villain, all we can say is that he fairly selective pf so far and hasn't shown much aggression. That translates to "watch and see", not "he's a rock". There are all sorts of reasons why he might not be playing many hands or showing much aggression.

Given the sketchy read, you should bet the turn. We don't give him credit for being a rock until he shows us he really is one. I'd still expect him to have a better hand after calling the turn than a very loose/passive player, so taking a free showdown would probably be a good idea. If the other guy is a caller and our pseudorock folds, we should think about betting the river.

DCWildcat · #9 08-13-2005, 10:04 PM

I think this turn bet is mandatory against nearly anyone