PLO8 Flop/turn fold equity con't from Ribbo's post.

[Wintermute]

In Ribbo's post a day ago, we got into a discussion of how to play top two pair/set on flop & turn in heads up action. We got into fold equity and so forth; I advocated playing a weakish high fast on the flop, waiting a card with a very strong high like top set and then getting active on the turn. But there was a question of whether people are more likely to fold on the flop or turn. Hell, just go read the thread.

Anyway, here's an example of how you can get an idiot to chase on the turn w/ a chk-raise on a safe card after he's already put money in on the flop:

$2000 PL Omaha Hi/Lo
Table Table 52021 (Real Money)
Seat 1 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: Folder2 ( $2578.50 )
Seat 2: Hero ( $2647 )
Seat 3: Folder ( $2043.50 )
Seat 10: Sucker ( $3770.50 )
Hero posts small blind [$10].
Folder posts big blind [$20].

** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ Qd Kc 7c Kh ]

Sucker calls [$20].
Folder2 folds.
Hero calls [$10].
Folder checks.

** Dealing Flop ** [ 5c, 7d, Ks ]

Hero checks.
Folder checks.
Sucker bets [$45].
Hero calls [$45].
Folder folds.

** Dealing Turn ** [ 7s ]

Hero checks.
Sucker bets [$148].
Hero raises [$592].
Sucker calls [$444].

** Dealing River ** [ 5s ]

Hero bets [$1332].
Sucker calls [$1332].
Hero shows [ Qd, Kc, 7c, Kh ] a full house, Kings full of sevens.
Sucker doesn't show [ 4c, Js, 2s, 6h ] a flush, king high.
Hero wins $3996 from the main pot with a full house, Kings full of
sevens.
There was no qualifying low hand.


Obviously, this is a bad player. But I contend he's more likely to fold to a flop check-raise than a turn check-raise.

[sy_or_bust]

I like how it worked out, but have a few questions.

It looks like you resign yourself to (usually) not earning much those times when Villain checks the turn, assuming you pot the river and are never raised by a worse hand and called by a majority of splitting hands.

If you simply raise the flop and pot the turn, you lose do lose fold equity from low draws, but you don't risk the above "disaster" scenario. Maybe you had a read that Villain would fire a second pot barrel every time, which is great, but in most situations I think a turn check is too much to risk.

[emptyshell]

Proof by example. It's one of my favorite mathematical proof techniques.

You should also try: Proof by stubborness and Proof by saying so. The last one is particularly handy since it doesn't take as long to complete.

[Wintermute]

[ QUOTE ]
I like how it worked out, but have a few questions.

It looks like you resign yourself to (usually) not earning much those times when Villain checks the turn, assuming you pot the river and are never raised by a worse hand and called by a majority of splitting hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes I should've mentioned the turn check was player-dependent. Against an average player I'd consider betting out on the turn. Still, checking may not be a disaster since it's easy for the positional player to assume I am on a low draw that's missing. The last thought crossing their mind at this point is that they're drawing dead for high, which is why the play is so strong against an aggressive opponent.

[ QUOTE ]
If you simply raise the flop and pot the turn, you lose do lose fold equity from low draws, but you don't risk the above "disaster" scenario.

[/ QUOTE ]

The disaster of the turn checking through would be bad, but so would be the disaster of raising the flop, then having any low card come on the turn, and being faced with the prospect of either folding top set at that point or risking a freeroll for your opponent.

[Wintermute]

[ QUOTE ]

Proof by example. It's one of my favorite mathematical proof techniques.

You should also try: Proof by stubborness and Proof by saying so. The last one is particularly handy since it doesn't take as long to complete.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree that a single example or even several do not offer conclusive proof, but when it's impossible to prove either side of a debate by reasonable means (as it is in this case) I prefer examples to raw opinion. I actually posted another example of this type of play a while back here. Good, tight aggressive players will make big calls to strong turn moves on occasions that they would've surely folded to aggression on the flop.

By the way, I have been duped by this play several times and ended up putting in big money on the turn because I couldn't convince myself that my opponent had a hand so strong I was drawing dead or very slim to half/all of the pot... it's very difficult to avoid, especially against aggressive opponents who are capable of big bluffs. I'd never seen this play until I moved up to the highest limit games--once you rack up several thousand hands at $1k/2k, and will have likely been on the receiving end of this play, it is possible that you may have a change in opinion.

On the other hand, if you'd prefer to just cast blind skepticism and condescneding remarks, nobody can stop you.

[emptyshell]

Yeah, sarcasm and irony are a big part of how I communicate, no condenscension intended.

I ran a quick query against an old PT database to get an idea of whether folding to a raise (after betting out) on the flop or turn is more common. The database contains about 100k hands total across all levels and was created before the $2k tables. My harddrive crashed recently so I don't have anything newer.


*************** PL $25 Hi/Lo ***************
FlopFoldToRaise: 360/2573 -> 13%
TurnFoldToRaise: 308/2077 -> 14%

*************** PL $50 Hi/Lo ***************
FlopFoldToRaise: 320/1781 -> 17%
TurnFoldToRaise: 251/1318 -> 19%

*************** PL $100 Hi/Lo ***************
FlopFoldToRaise: 984/4796 -> 20%
TurnFoldToRaise: 731/3683 -> 19%

*************** PL $200 Hi/Lo ***************
FlopFoldToRaise: 489/2319 -> 21%
TurnFoldToRaise: 359/1589 -> 22%

*************** PL $400 Hi/Lo ***************
FlopFoldToRaise: 127/599 -> 21%
TurnFoldToRaise: 98/399 -> 24%

*************** PL $600 Hi/Lo ***************
FlopFoldToRaise: 37/178 -> 20%
TurnFoldToRaise: 23/101 -> 22%

*************** PL $1000 Hi/Lo ***************
FlopFoldToRaise: 410/1893 -> 21%
TurnFoldToRaise: 268/1129 -> 23%

Obviously, it's all very situation- and person-dependent, but this data suggests it's about equally likely in general for a player to fold on the flop or turn.

[Wintermute]

[ QUOTE ]
Obviously, it's all very situation- and person-dependent, but this data suggests it's about equally likely in general for a player to fold on the flop or turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

In that case, all the more reason to keep arguing.

You, sir, are an ass!

[Wintermute]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Obviously, it's all very situation- and person-dependent, but this data suggests it's about equally likely in general for a player to fold on the flop or turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

In that case, all the more reason to keep arguing.

You, sir, are an ass!

[/ QUOTE ]

This guy just fodlded to my turn bet, ergo, I am correct:

$400 PL Omaha Hi/Lo - Friday, August 12, 22:43:13 EDT 2005
Table Table 54689 (No DP) (Real Money)
Seat 1 is the button
Total number of players : 7
Seat 1: Ralph3082 ( $368.74 )
Seat 4: beat_kids ( $363.10 )
Seat 6: tynofu ( $417.60 )
Seat 8: woodfordman ( $400 )
Seat 9: Hero ( $670.70 )
Seat 10: Force98 ( $392.10 )
Seat 2: Lled65 ( $396 )
Lled65 posts small blind [$2].
beat_kids posts big blind [$4].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ Ah 2d 6c 7d ]
tynofu folds.
woodfordman folds.
Hero calls [$4].
Force98 folds.
Ralph3082 folds.
Lled65 calls [$2].
beat_kids raises [$4].
Hero calls [$4].
Lled65 calls [$4].
** Dealing Flop ** [ Kh, 3c, 4d ]
Lled65 checks.
beat_kids checks.
Hero bets [$22.80].
Lled65 calls [$22.80].
beat_kids folds.
** Dealing Turn ** [ Qh ]
Lled65 checks.
Hero bets [$66.60].
Lled65 folds.
Hero does not show cards.
Hero wins $133.20

[emptyshell]

I say "good day" to you, sir.

[Wintermute]

I play you HEAD up! ANY time.