waiting until the turn paradox, simple HEFAP question

[kamelion44]

My friend and I were trying to figure out how this situation helps you:

AA on the button, large field. Early position bets, everyone calls. HEFAP says to wait until the turn to raise, so that you don't price them in, and make their calls correct. In other words, wait until the turn to raise, so that they make a bigger mistake. If you raise on the flop, they're not making a mistake to call for their gutshots, two-pair draws, etc.

My friend was arguing against this, saying that if they're all going to call anyhow, how do you gain by waiting until the turn? I couldn't figure out a way to counter his intuitions...any help?

[MJL]

The reason to wait is to make the odds in your favor and allow them to make a mistake in theory by calling a big bet or hopefully 2 by betting or raising on the turn. A couple of problems in the question you pose. First the circumstances regarding how your opponents play and second the flop. Remember there are MANY reasons not to slowplay. That turn card could give the guy with a bottom pair 3 of a kind, flush draw etc. Most of all is your question asked what to do when they ALL call. HEFAP is designed for players to become successful at stakes where it is not common for ALL to call. For stratagies in small stakes games look into Small Stakes Holdem by Ed Miller/Skalanski. The theory is the same but how to manipulate it is different in some situations.

[pzhon]

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My friend was arguing against this, saying that if they're all going to call anyhow, how do you gain by waiting until the turn? I couldn't figure out a way to counter his intuitions...any help?

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The main benefit is that by waiting until the turn, you will often get bet into on the turn. Then you will be able to make a full-sized raise when the draws are weakest rather than a half-sized raise when the draws are strongest.

[bobman0330]

If they all call to the river, waiting until the turn to raise will make the pot bigger in the end...

[Wetdog]

HEPFAP was written for play in games where there are good opponents, ones that will not call if pot odds are insufficient. Low limit games where there are many players going to the turn regardless of the odds do not apply in the situation you describe.

[SparkyDog]

Yes it does.

[Wetdog]

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Yes it does.

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OK then, demonstrate using the OP's premise.

"AA on the button, large field. Early position bets, everyone calls."

I maintain that If there are 10 players in for one small bet preflop and on the flop, that's 10 big bets before the turn betting starts. You can imply that at least another 3 big bets will go in on the turn, sufficient odds for a 4 out gutshot. In that case, a raise making it 2 more bets to call would be no big deal.

[bobman0330]

One of the OPs problems was putting the raiser in the wrong place. OP should be UTG or the raiser should be in LP. Assuming that...

First of all, he damn well better raise PF, so there will be 10 BBs in the pot PF. IF he raises the flop, everyone is getting 10-1 or better and will call. On the turn, there will be 20 BBs in the pot, and everyone will call correctly for a single BB.

If he just calls the flop, there will be 15 BBs in the pot. bettor leads, AA raises, everyone is getting 8-1 or so, not enough to call a 4-outer.

[Xhad]

First point: Just because a play is +EV doesn't mean it is the best play. For example, calling preflop with AA on the button after seven limpers is +EV, but it is still less +EV than a raise. (Another way of putting it is that a play can be profitable, but still cost you money when you could have used a more profitable play). Yes, raising the flop makes money, but raising the turn makes more money.

Second Point: The reason for waiting until the turn is that it forces your opponents to make a greater mistake. Contrary to what some other posters in this thread think, if you raise the turn and someone incorrectly calls with his gutshot your turn raise has not failed; he made a greater mistake than he would have made if you raised the flop, which is +EV for you.

Third point: For those mentioning that "they can catch their miracle card on the turn", I strongly suggest you read SSH. Basically the principle is that, if you can't do anything to stop your opponents from correctly drawing out on the turn, at least try to keep them from correctly drawing out on the river. If they draw out on the turn in this situation, that's just too bad, as you couldn't do anything about it anyway.

[Cooker]

You don't properly understand the play, or it would have been obvious that this situation does not fit the play you think HEPFAP would recommend. In the section where the play was recommended, the player right in front of you bets out, meaning that you can put the whole field to 2 big bets cold on the turn. In your example, you can't do this, so this play isn't appropraite for the reasons discussed in HEPFAP. However, it still might be best to wait until the turn to raise, because you might want to get more bets into the pot but certainly not to drive out weak draws.