Question from Ed Miller's book

[mike4bmp]

I can't seem to figure out how these guys come up with their "estimates" for the percentage of times that a certain hand will win. For instance, in Small Stakes Hold Em Ed Miller states that you can estimate that you will win with AK a quarter of the time...where does he get this value from? Thanks!
-Mike...out

[Webster]

Simulations, Poker Tracker and experinece. Althought it's more like 50%

Where is this in the book.

[Zetack]

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I can't seem to figure out how these guys come up with their "estimates" for the percentage of times that a certain hand will win. For instance, in Small Stakes Hold Em Ed Miller states that you can estimate that you will win with AK a quarter of the time...where does he get this value from? Thanks!
-Mike...out

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Well he probably starts with how often you make a hand. A-K makes top pair top kicker about 50 percent of the time if you stay in to the river (actually about 52% but no quibbling here).

You'll flop TPTK about 30 percent of the time. Obviously you won't make it to the river all the time but you'll make it to the turn a lot, so figure this a hand you'll make TPTk say 37 percent of the time. Occaisionally you'll make a monster like the nut straight or flush or top trips.

Then its just a matter of estimating how often you lose with that hand and through in a few percent for the times you make a monster like a nut straight, flush, or top trips/boat kind of thing and a bit of a fudge for the times you take it down unimproved.

Or anyway, that's how I'd imagine he came up with that figure--but maybe he just checked pokertracker.


--Zetack

[surfdoc]

check out this

[uuDevil]

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check out this

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I think you meant this.

In the example in the book you are against 5 opponents and will be going all-in before the flop. Against 5 random hands, you'd win about 28% of the time according to the chart.

Other possibilities:

[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Ed could also have used PokerCalculator or Pokerstove, which let you choose ranges of hands for your opponents.

[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Maybe he asked David Sklansky.

[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] He did it in his head, using his giant brain.

[mike4bmp]

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Where is this in the book.

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Its in the last paragraph of page 24....and thanks for all the advice and help guys...the charts and links help me out alot. =)